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George BM

July Discobs Thread

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13 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Doesn't matter.  Happens 99% of all events.  Will happen many more times this winter.

You might need to move east.  Thurmont, MD would put you in the jackpot.

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I ended up just over 6 as I did manage to pick up 2 additional inches last night with that final push. I think BWI reported just under 6 so seems accurate and BWI always seems to report low.

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Cocorahs has me in the 5" range, though you sure can't tell.  Barely any puddles around.

 

We went camping (in a mini cabin thank goodness) at Martinak State Park.  They had upwards of 3".  Thankfully my canopy didn't leak

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Also, SPC has marked the areas east of the BR as having a marginal risk of damaging winds and large hail this afternoon 

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Some good CAPE values and lifted indices east of the Chesapeake bay that are increasing. Wouldn't be surprised if they expand the slight risk and the MDT risk a little east

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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1135 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-506-
222345-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0014.180722T1700Z-180723T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-
Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore,
Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt,
Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf,
Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown,
Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown,
Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring,
Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren,
Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling
1135 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for the District of Columbia and portions of
  Maryland and Virginia, including the following areas, in
  Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central and Southeast
  Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD,
  Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard,
  Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford,
  Southern Baltimore, and St. Marys. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls
  Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George,
  Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Spotsylvania, and
  Stafford.

* Through midnight EDT tonight.

* Showers and thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and
  evening. There is potential for repetitive rounds of
  precipitation. Combined with saturated ground and high stream
  levels from Saturday`s rainfall, this precipitation could lead
  to flash flooding.

* Urban areas, locations along small streams and creeks, and poor
  drainage areas are most vulnerable to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
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13 minutes ago, JWilliam9830 said:

Looks like C.A.P.E almost gets shafted. Right on the edge of the slight risk.

Yeah I am pretty much right in the middle between the moderate and slight contours. Those products are not meant to be precise, and as we saw yesterday they continually update based on latest trends. That being said, I just missed that heavy line of showers that developed just to my SW in the last hour- it moved N and slightly NW. Seems most of the action will be to my west today.

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12 minutes ago, JWilliam9830 said:

Some good CAPE values and lifted indices east of the Chesapeake bay that are increasing. Wouldn't be surprised if they expand the slight risk and the MDT risk a little east

Been quite sunny here this morning, except when that line a few miles west of here passed by, but back to mostly sunny now. In general the location of the upper low to the west and the blocking ridge to the east are going to dictate where any minor upper level perturbations might track and contribute to heavy rain potential- and it looks like it is favored to be over the same areas that got crushed yesterday.

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Getting a towering cumulus cloud with a dark base coming from the south imby. 82/78

humid

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14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That shortwave moving N-NW from central VA is going to be a trigger for heavy rain today, along with any localized low level forcing mechanisms.

namconus_z500_vort_neus_6.thumb.png.a8aada0ab26c2cd6a02c78aba3aa4205.png

Definitely..nice catch.  

Current visible 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Virginias-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

U might  have to hit play

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Shower has formed basically right next to my house, a few miles away. Nice cumulonimbus structure, as well as LFC's a few hundred feet above my head.

83/80/95

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