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George BM

July Discobs Thread

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

lol.  Guess LWX better revise their AFD then

Their morning AFD is pretty tame.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Their morning AFD is pretty tame.

Talking about the Tuesday portion

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Things get worse on Tue as moisture plume moves a bit more
inland and aims at Washington DC. Model signal is stronger for
heavy rainfall with showers/t-storms falling over saturated
soils. Coordination with neighboring WFOs was not to issue the
flood watch for multiple days, but obviously the riks of flash
flooding will be extremely high. WPC Day ERO has moderate risk
for almost the entire area.

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Talking about the Tuesday portion

 

 

Meh.  Decent wind max showing up on the SPC meso analysis this morning though...might get a few wet microbursts this afternoon in NOVA and S. MD.

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Meh.  Decent wind max showing up on the SPC meso analysis this morning though...might get a few wet microbursts this afternoon in NOVA and S. MD.

Well we have good effective shear and bulk shear... as well as some decent SBCAPE/MLCAPE... could see an isolated tornado as well

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Just now, yoda said:

Well we have good effective shear and some decent SBCAPE/MLCAPE... could see an isolated tornado as well

True...I'd like to see  tad bit more helicity though.

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54 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

12Z NAM is pretty tame through Wednesday.

Do you mind sharing what it shows for SC PA? We're having serious flooding up here - roads washed out, streets are rivers, etc. 

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Do you mind sharing what it shows for SC PA? We're having serious flooding up here - roads washed out, streets are rivers, etc. 

namconus_apcpn_neus_28.png

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Pouring fatties. .71'' per hour rates, .12'' so far in just a few minutes.

Edit: And just like that, it's over. Still got time for the PWS to update, 0.25'' so far

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Meso guidance (the NAMs...RGEM, HRRR) look dry <2" over 2 days outside of a rogue sweet spot.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Meso guidance (the NAMs...RGEM, HRRR) look dry <2" over 2 days outside of a rogue sweet spot.

The main event was the organized coastal low. Yesterday's heavy rain was due to a compact vort max that enhanced lift, and also a localized frontal boundary that set up near the bay. Will probably see mostly hit or miss convection over the next couple days, then maybe a more widespread area of rain later Thursday with a cold front attempting to move through.

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29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Meso guidance (the NAMs...RGEM, HRRR) look dry <2" over 2 days outside of a rogue sweet spot.

Uh... 12z NAM posted above shows a large area of >2" of rain over next 3 days... so does RGEM 2-3" of rain over next 48 hrs

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Uh... 12z NAM posted above shows a large area of >2" of rain over next 3 days

Check the scale...the next contour up is only ~2.5" 

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

namconus_apcpn_neus_28.png

Thank you. That's no bueno for our creeks and the Susquahanna up here as the upstream water falls off the mountains. 

Going to be dicey getting O's - Red Sox games in tonight through Wednesday too.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Check the scale...the next contour up is only ~2.5" 

Check the colors... DCA is 3" on 12z NAM... Fairfax County is 2.5" to 3" on 12z RGEM... and you said LESS than 2"... clearly 2.5" is MORE

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21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The main event was the organized coastal low. Yesterday's heavy rain was due to a compact vort max that enhanced lift, and also a localized frontal boundary that set up near the bay. Will probably see mostly hit or miss convection over the next couple days, then maybe a more widespread area of rain later Thursday with a cold front attempting to move through.

meh

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Sun is out now....steam coming off the roof. 79/76

Perfect day for fishing.....if everything wasn’t high and muddy.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Sun is out now....steam coming off the roof. 79/76

Perfect day for fishing.....if everything wasn’t high and muddy.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Pond fishing is probably still viable.

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Pond fishing is probably still viable.


True. Wish I had a few unknown farm ponds in my back pocket....where the the big boys spend all summer porking up.Lol. I used to but not anything local anymore. Mostly river and creek floats...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 


True. Wish I had a few unknown farm ponds in my back pocket....where the the big boys spend all summer porking up.Lol. I used to but not anything local anymore. Mostly river and creek floats...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

If you don't mind a drive:

 

1.) Pond in front of Pleasant Valley Fire Department (Carroll County)

2.) This pond here in Montgomery Village of Duffer Way:  HERE

 

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19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If you don't mind a drive:

1.) Pond in front of Pleasant Valley Fire Department (Carroll County)

 

Is that pond public? I might want to check it out.

On topic, a quick tropical downpour here and now blue skies.

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3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Is that pond public? I might want to check it out.

On topic, a quick tropical downpour here and now blue skies.

Yea, it's an abandoned golf course so there's about 4 or 5 water hazards that you can walk.  I've always parked on Duffer Way and then I go and fish them.  Got some bass around 16" in them...top water plugs work well.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, it's an abandoned golf course so there's about 4 or 5 water hazards that you can walk.  I've always parked on Duffer Way and then I go and fish them.  Got some bass around 16" in them...top water plugs work well.

Wow. Good to know! Hopefully you catch and release.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Wow. Good to know! Hopefully you catch and release.

Always do on barbless hooks.

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Temperature down to 23F and 13'' and counting. Today is January 22, 2019. Blowing and drifting on the porch, the solar minimum mini ice age part 2.

NWS going with a conservative 36'' for my backyard.

Meanwhile eastcoastnpz is dryslotted. zzzzz

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i don't anticipate a saturday style rain to get to the totals.  it will probably be spotty, some boom, some busts, typical of summer.  the idea is that any cells are going to dump like they did yesterday.  satellite imagery looks good, and shows the moisture plume pretty well.

also, i have none...and i mean absolutely no desire for winter right now.  completely satisfied with being able to step outside in shorts and a t-shirt, whether it's raining or not.  winter around here has become overrated.  4 months of chasing scraps.  thunderstorms and pool weather for the win...until the euro shows a 4-8" overrunning system from the south and a nice high to the north.  until then, i'm out.  summertime ftw.

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11 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

More heavy rain. Fun... :(

Yup. Another monsoon at North Point. 

At least it's easier to pull weeds... :wacko:

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