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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even GFS is cold. Not as cold as NAM/Euro but still creeps it below freezing at ORH on Sunday with ZR.

Did we have a similar situation in 2013 or 14? It may have been earlier than April but I remember the areas of Woodstock having a icing issue in early spring

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I'll take the blue anomalies for warmth.

Mmm... it may not be the vortex killin' it here.  

That ridging up there west of James bay is a whopper subsidence signal and the 1040 high immediate beneath and down stream is probably physically connected to that... not really requiring the vortex to transport cold in this case.

interesting though...

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Whether it verifies or not, I've never even seen a model prog show 25F here at MVL while BDL is 81F.

That is truly an insane gradient.  Just think driving up and down 91 during this haha.

IMG_9241.thumb.PNG.f7da3c6edbd5c0999497c47a8bc41b9e.PNG

 

If it looks like it will verify close to that, I may chase!

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea looking like a lot of sleet in the deep cold

I guess it depends where the lift is. If it's above the inversion and the warm layer is warm enough, you won't have ice nuclei. If you're getting weak lift in the cold layer it could be a mixed bag. It may even be cold enough up here to produce snow grains in the low levels. If I'm sitting in the mid 20s Sunday afternoon it will be a mess either way. My hunch is the models are sensing more frozen than freezing up here based on the 2m temps and the lack of latent heating due to fusion. That helps keeps up frigid at the sfc and supplying SNE with CAA for some ZR.

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