Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

HimoorWx

Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

Recommended Posts

Another battleground month is on tap!  Will we have a true month of Napril to compensate for the month of No-Morch?  Will the forecasts of DIT, Snow88 and Blizz24 win against logic and rational thought?  Will miserymist win the day over peepers and petunias?  So far, all we know for sure is that I don't want snow on the 5th and Bob doesn't want snow on the 13th!  Everything else is TBD!

Discuss amongst yourselves . . . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Another battleground month is on tap!  Will we have a true month of Napril to compensate for the month of No-Morch?  Will the forecasts of DIT, Snow88 and Blizz24 win against logic and rational thought?  Will miserymist win the day over peepers and petunias?  So far, all we know for sure is that I don't want snow on the 5th and Bob doesn't want snow on the 13th!  Everything else is TBD!

Discuss amongst yourselves . . . 

It's amazing what an epic battle that is...too

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In all serious and risking my usual proclivity for subversively snide humor ... I am on the fence for another substantive snow event before this season is really and truly written into the annuls and moved on... (notwithstanding ...that semantic bs about what is and is not a substantive snow in April).

-- trend... trend is friend, for cold/winter storm enthusiasts... well, just call them 'snow geese' :)   despite warmish today... and probably April sun searing off-set pleasant tomorrow, the hemispheric look has been persistently on the chilly side.

-- the blockiness aoa the 50th to 70th parallels isn't going anywhere over the next 10 days.  

These two facets may, and probably really are, interconnected... but sufficed it is to say, seeing as we've observed snows ...sometimes big, right through the first week of May around these latitudes and longitudes, I wouldn't exactly think that 2nd point is a bad canvas.  The tele's as is/are/have been...continue with an Archy signal ... past the 8th, said signal is history and if April has a balm blast out there say 10th to mid month...it both would not surprise me, but would probably not even be shown on present operational versions anyway.  neither would any over-achieving cold complexion prior to the 8th in the same vein.  Sometimes these 'probabilities' don't really get evident until some up-start S/W takes a favorable track. in fact, that D8 GFS could get under our latitude and that would do it.

-- models and even their ensemble means will at times give off faux impressions of regressing back to winter at this time of year.  con that is always in play post the Ides of Marches.

-- i want a snow bomb storm.  people's patience' (not talking present company, but everyone else in society) are nearing apoplexy for this inability to get balmy days going so far this year.  whether this is justified climate expectations or not, there is a definite intolerance to cold and gray gaining momentum, so the entertainment value is there.  however, since i want to see that ..therein is a purely scientific and utterly rational basis to assume it won't happen.  most likely result is too cold to enjoy spring and too warm to snow...  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s welcomed by everyone and shouldn’t be the least bit surprising to anyone 

I sure as hell want nothing to do with that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The WPO being negative as we head through this...

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

Is a constructive interference pattern from the west Pacific all the way to Alaska, given time...

Such that the PNA could be underdone - ...if so, that would obviously transitively effect the orientation of the PNAP component (perennial north american pattern), both the models/means.  That's code for more amplitude ...either in the runs or about to emerge.  

However, this is April man - that big menacing yellow thing eye-balling the earth N of the Equator has a way of interfering.  The daily absorption of insolation is a modulating influence now and going forward.  So, ...the gist of it is that with that factor removed, I'd be setting us up for either an event or an active period...  That's why I'm on the fence.  man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I truly don't.  

well... if we're telling the truth then, neither do I - not that you do, but I don't fight things.  If the indicators say x then it's x. 

x in early Feb = fair to above average chances for a bigger cold event(s).   

x in early Apr = almost as much chance the atmosphere just up suddenly normalizes, mutating the signal into nothing more than a BD generator and a heat wave in west TX.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This is for @Damage In Tolland and @Snow88

:weenie::weenie::weenie: 

This would cause mass anger and violence amongst the population were this to ever verify.

sn10_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.c48ae79bb85722688970b8286d929f55.png

Torn. I REALLY want warm temps and spring, but would also like something like this to pad the numbers a bit.

There is some support from the EURO and GFS, but less impact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Torn. I REALLY want warm temps and spring, but would also like something like this to pad the numbers a bit.

There is some support from the EURO and GFS, but less impact.

Meh

index (5).png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I sure as hell want nothing to do with that.

Neither do i, Keep it south or up in far NNE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

despite our conversation... the 12z Euro looks pretty good for convection near wednesday - man, this shocking ability for the models to put out depictions that counter these thread motifs has been amazing all season really -

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, dryslot said:

Neither do i, Keep it south or up in far NNE.

It would be cool, melts in a day anyways Stats padder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

despite our conversation... the 12z Euro looks pretty good for convection near wednesday - man, this shocking ability for the models to put out depictions that counter these thread motifs has been amazing all season really -

It's all in NNE on the Euro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro has SNE snow to rain ending as snow Monday. Rain Wed and Thurs with snow in CNE NNE Thur Very light rain snow mix Friday Sat and snow just on the Cape following Monday

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That Euro is perfect.

Overall for April it's meh, those rates ain't gonna cut it for anything other than nuisance value

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Overall for April it's meh, those rates ain't gonna cut it for anything other than nuisance value

The reason why i could care for it here now, Its more of a nuisance then anything as well as down your way for sure, Not in Northern Maine though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2-3 potential snow events SNE. Not much more you could ask for at this lead time. Powder or tree topplers? Time will tell. Will be fun to track

Your making this sound like more than it is at the moment.  At this moment it’s really nothing at all...like Ginxy said..it’s meh verbatim.  So what if we see a few wet snow flakes in the air Sunday night that make the roads wet..big deal.  

I mean if something significant comes up later next week, that’s different.  Right now it’s nothing impressive.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The reason why i could care for it here now, Its more of a nuisance then anything as well as down your way for sure, Not in Northern Maine though.

LR day 8/9 has the most potential. Temps are marginal at best Monday. Euro has the day 8 system suppressed but that's the one to watch for potential. Others are marginal weak type systems that would be nice in January Feb

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×