HoarfrostHubb Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Fortunately the qpf will be rather light around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Nice Euro run last night... hard to get this type of output from the EURO within 48 hours at any point, much less April 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Nice Euro run last night... hard to get this type of output from the EURO within 48 hours at any point, much less April 15th. Does that include sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Does that include sleet? This is the p-type breakdown. I'm curious about the lack of sleet on the progs though... a lot of these models are showing either freezing rain or snow. To be honest though, we saw almost no sleet. Went from rain to freezing rain to snow. Decent sized flakes flying around here with a trace. Even blowing around the base area. It got cold fast. 27F now with -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 The RGEM is not backing down either... its been very consistent now for 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Looks pretty slick at SLK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They prob used a ginxy Dead Sea scroll thermometer. "Ice floes on thy banks of Centre Harbor" so they said it didn't get above freezing. I'm sure there are a few accounts from some guy named Abraham about ice outs in mid May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Nice event up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The RGEM is not backing down either... its been very consistent now for 4 runs. Good to get snow out of something this anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 The NAM has most of the weak lift/upglide in the warm layer so we'll be lacking ice nuclei. Still, -8C to -10C is cold enough for snow grains and refreezing some drops. We wedgie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks pretty slick at SLK. See I think there's more warmth aloft than these model p-types are thinking. I honestly don't know what to think. There's a lot of QPF that is going to be streaming across northern NY into NNE. I do think having it go to snow now would make me think the push of cold air is deep enough and I can't really imagine we'd go back to sleet tonight unless there's a secondary push of mid-level warming? It's also not really a SWFE but more just long duration overrunning. Reminds of April 2003 but lighter when GFL-RUT got 12-18" and ALB got an ice storm as that was just like 24 hours of moisture streaming due west to east with very little thermal change once the boundary set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 I'm not sure what the record low-high is at the Pit, but methinks we'll give whatever it is a run if we can cool before midnight. Progged overnight low of 27*, high tomorrow of 29*, low tomorrow night of 29* are appealing. It was neat being in Minnesota on Wed with cold and snow on the ground and driving to Des Moines Wednesday night to night-time spring temps. Opposite of course here yesterday vs. today/tomorrow. Off to SF for another week beginning tomorrow. Enjoy the wintery weather tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: See I think there's more warmth aloft than these model p-types are thinking. I honestly don't know what to think. There's a lot of QPF that is going to be streaming across northern NY into NNE. I do think having it go to snow now would make me think the push of cold air is deep enough and I can't really imagine we'd go back to sleet tonight unless there's a secondary push of mid-level warming? It's also not really a SWFE but more just long duration overrunning. Reminds of April 2003 but lighter when GFL-RUT got 12-18" and ALB got an ice storm as that was just like 24 hours of moisture streaming due west to east with very little thermal change once the boundary set up. I would have to look at soundings. Where is the deep lift relative to DGZ? Saturation? Is the warm tongue like -0.3C at 750mb? Those are all questions to help determine snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I would have to look at soundings. Where is the deep lift relative to DGZ? Saturation? Is the warm tongue like -0.3C at 750mb? Those are all questions to help determine snow and sleet. Yeah the DGZ is way the F up there at like 500-600mb. I think it looks sleety to me. The NAM warm tongue is more than the GFS (GFS is a sub-freezing column actually) but still under 1C it looks like. All the lift though is in that same area as the warmer air aloft. So that's gonna be the issue then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 NWS thinking this is generally a sleet event. I would love to get just one more powder day of 3-6", even if it's dense. Last Saturday was one of the best ski days of the year with 3-5" on top of a good base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the DGZ is way the F up there at like 500-600mb. I think it looks sleety to me. The NAM warm tongue is more than the GFS (GFS is a sub-freezing column actually) but still under 1C it looks like. All the lift though is in that same area as the warmer air aloft. So that's gonna be the issue then. You can get good snow if lift is in DGZ. Doesn’t matter where it is. But if it’s lower where temps are warmer than like -8C...expect heavy heavy sugar. I’ll have to look later. Getting ready for a funeral unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 29 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the DGZ is way the F up there at like 500-600mb. I think it looks sleety to me. The NAM warm tongue is more than the GFS (GFS is a sub-freezing column actually) but still under 1C it looks like. All the lift though is in that same area as the warmer air aloft. So that's gonna be the issue then. With the NAM and GFS both in relative agreement on something like -8 to -10C in the cold layer I have a hard time seeing too much FZRA actually. But that also complicates things, because that can generate dendrites around here too. So a mix of snow and sleet coming from multiple layers is possible. Low level snow generated from orographic lift, and higher level sleet generated from the synoptics. Brutal forecast soundings for mid April though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Holy beautiful morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: With the NAM and GFS both in relative agreement on something like -8 to -10C in the cold layer I have a hard time seeing too much FZRA actually. But that also complicates things, because that can generate dendrites around here too. So a mix of snow and sleet coming from multiple layers is possible. Low level snow generated from orographic lift, and higher level sleet generated from the synoptics. Brutal forecast soundings for mid April though. Still love the Jan 1994 event where the south shore of MA was getting heavy snow from OES but sand blasted by synoptic sleet. It was like +1 to +2 at 750 while it was like -10C to -12C down around 900mb. I used to have a link to the PDF paper written on the storm but lost it years ago. It was a fascinating read. I remember them using old KNZW obs in the paper. It was like 1/8 mile vis with the old SNPE+ obs or something like that. It must have been a hoot to be out in...like getting thick dendrites ripping while also having sleet. Usually hard to get that combo since the snow mixed with sleet is usually terrible growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: CON record is 36° in 1893. Seeya. Latest subfreezing high is 30° on 4/12/1874. Latest max in the 20s is 4/9/1997 and 4/9/1974. All are doable. Farmington's latest 32 or below was 4/19/67, with 9" snow on that day. Latest 20s: 4/13/76; latest teens: 4/8/82. (The co-op's only other sub-20 max in April was reported on 4/6/1995, and they benefitted from (then) observing at 7 AM. Living then in Gardiner, I had a sub-20 afternoon on 4/5 that was spoiled by the 31° at my 9 PM obs the previous evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: The RGEM is not backing down either... its been very consistent now for 4 runs. Crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 48 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: With the NAM and GFS both in relative agreement on something like -8 to -10C in the cold layer I have a hard time seeing too much FZRA actually. But that also complicates things, because that can generate dendrites around here too. So a mix of snow and sleet coming from multiple layers is possible. Low level snow generated from orographic lift, and higher level sleet generated from the synoptics. Brutal forecast soundings for mid April though. Down to 18F/-8C at the top of the FourRunner Quad here on Mansfield now. That's 3,600ft. I have to agree, no way that's freezing rain with those temps and the thickness now of this cold layer with even 700ft down below freezing now at 30F. So current profile looks like this here: 3,600ft...18F/-8C 2,500ft...25F/-4C 1,500ft...28F/-2C 700ft...30F/-1C No way a rain drop survives that fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still love the Jan 1994 event where the south shore of MA was getting heavy snow from OES but sand blasted by synoptic sleet. It was like +1 to +2 at 750 while it was like -10C to -12C down around 900mb. I used to have a link to the PDF paper written on the storm but lost it years ago. It was a fascinating read. I remember them using old KNZW obs in the paper. It was like 1/8 mile vis with the old SNPE+ obs or something like that. It must have been a hoot to be out in...like getting thick dendrites ripping while also having sleet. Usually hard to get that combo since the snow mixed with sleet is usually terrible growth. Was that the 17-18 event? That evening we had SN+ at about 5°, heavily rimed things that refracted the street lights into vertical beams, like searchlights. At the same time 35 miles to our east, RKD had RA+ and 40s with SE gales. Precip briefly changed to rain in the BGR area, followed by a quick plunge into subzero territory, such that I-95 had ice lumps that a grader couldn't move, and that made driving faster than about 15 mph highly hazardous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 20 hours ago, powderfreak said: Waterville is a well known snow spot... western slope between Mansfield and Jay Peak and all those towns up there from Eden on the east slope to Belvidere on the west side. Bakersfield is the spot that always pulls 30"+ totals in big upslope events. Waterville is the marker...guy probably gets similar snow to J.Spin. I'm just joking with you about a photo... I just think your yard will be covered on Sunday morning with some frozen material. Hello my friends, I think we all have different ideas of what a significant snowfall is, sure we may get some snow sprinklings all year round practically but I do not consider them to be a significant snowfall unless I am out there in the field plowing roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Here it comes... got readings in the 50s down in S.NH (New Hampshire, not New Haven) while 20s are working their way into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Down to 18F/-8C at the top of the FourRunner Quad here on Mansfield now. That's 3,600ft. I have to agree, no way that's freezing rain with those temps and the thickness now of this cold layer with even 700ft down below freezing now at 30F. So current profile looks like this here: 3,600ft...18F/-8C 2,500ft...25F/-4C 1,500ft...28F/-2C 700ft...30F/-1C No way a rain drop survives that fall. 8B0 (Rangeley) is starting to nose over now. This cold means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Beautiful day here, clear sky's and 62F. Mt Snow and Stratton are both socked in with fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: They prob used a ginxy Dead Sea scroll thermometer. "Ice floes on thy banks of Centre Harbor" so they said it didn't get above freezing. How's your morning, beautiful here awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: You can get good snow if lift is in DGZ. Doesn’t matter where it is. But if it’s lower where temps are warmer than like -8C...expect heavy heavy sugar. I’ll have to look later. Getting ready for a funeral unfortunately. Sorry to hear. We had a crazy low lift heavy sugar in 13 but man did it pile up. People have this thought that bad snow growth always means small accumulations, If you get billions of flakes it dumps and accumulates fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Where’s the door now? Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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