MN Transplant Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This is the moisture transport I mentioned above. Trace the plume from Key West way out into the Atlantic Wednesday morning. That is not how we generally score around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: People that only have the ability to understand precip panels should not be permitted to post. Please leave analysis to others. This ^ but its easy to tell who knows and doesn't, still sucks to try and follow weeding through the junk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Nam is a disaster. This is the perfect storm to get nammed and its not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: 3k hits S PA and points NE the hardest. NYC metro gets 18+ on the 3K as we see 12+ in northern MD. crazy. And not verifying. can we please, please stop referring to the 10:1 maps as what the models are showing for snow? they're not showing these crazy totals. for the reasons stated many times in here, the 10:1 maps are not applicable in this event and are not going to be anywhere near what ends up on the ground for most of the forum. Thankfully, for the NAM3, we don't even have to figure out in our heads how to chop down the ratios due to sleet or wetness of the snow - the Ferrier computation is right there on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: They're looking at surface depictions more than anything What else should we look at? I get ignoring total snowfall but the snow depth change isn’t all that spectacular. If we are supposed to ignore that too then fine. Just because the h5 looks awesome doesn’t mean it translates to the surface where we live. So I ask again should we ignore the positive snow depth change? Not just asking you but those who seem to think the only ones who can post are those who understand precip panels. I know what I see. Is there some other panel from the models that I am missing? That run smacked PHL-NYC. Not saying it’s right but it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, high risk said: can we please, please stop referring to the 10:1 maps as what the models are showing for snow? they're not showing these crazy totals. for the reasons stated many times in here, the 10:1 maps are not applicable in this event and are not going to be anywhere near what ends up on the ground for most of the forum. Thankfully, for the NAM3, we don't even have to figure out in our heads how to chop down the ratios due to sleet or wetness of the snow - the Ferrier computation is right there on TT. I noticed on TT that Ferrier is capped at 10:1. If and when things get cranking, isn’t there a chance favored areas get to 12:1, or a 15:1 unicorn?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, T. August said: I noticed on TT that Ferrier is capped at 10:1. If and when things get cranking, isn’t there a chance favored areas get to 12:1, or a 15:1 unicorn?. 15:1 ain't happening anywhere near the I-95 corridor. I'm way more worried about totals being inflated 2-3x above reality with the 10:1 in a sleet bomb than I am about the couple of inches that much be lost by applying a 10:1 cap when the last few hours fall as 12:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 00z RGEM looks fine to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: This is the moisture transport I mentioned above. Trace the plume from Key West way out into the Atlantic Wednesday morning. That is not how we generally score around here. excellent post. we're coming into the range now where the NAM3 can't entirely be dismissed. If I see this idea hold for a couple more cycles, I'm going to buy into the idea of not getting crushed here, although I'll gleefully take the 3-5" that would likely still fall late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What else should we look at? I get ignoring total snowfall but the snow depth change isn’t all that spectacular. If we are supposed to ignore that too then fine. Just because the h5 looks awesome doesn’t mean it translates to the surface where we live. So I ask again should we ignore the positive snow depth change? Not just asking you but those who seem to think the only ones who can post are those who understand precip panels. I know what I see. Is there some other panel from the models that I am missing? That run smacked PHL-NYC. Not saying it’s right but it did. I am not nuts about the ground truth for our general area given how h5 looks for part 2- the coastal. I am looking at total precip and since it is the 3k NAM, I am using the Ferrier for snowfall. Its not awful, but there is more emphasis to the N and NE compared to 12z with the location of the best banding in the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The RGEM is very similar to the NAM with temps overhead when the initial thump comes in. It is a lot of ice/sleet to kick it off. I dont even go over to snow out here until midday. Shame. I was really hoping for that nice front end thump that was being modeled over the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: 15:1 ain't happening anywhere near the I-95 corridor. I'm way more worried about totals being inflated 2-3x above reality with the 10:1 in a sleet bomb than I am about the couple of inches that much be lost by applying a 10:1 cap when the last few hours fall as 12:1. I getcha, but just to clarify, I was talking about “those” areas. Ya know, “those”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: This is the moisture transport I mentioned above. Trace the plume from Key West way out into the Atlantic Wednesday morning. That is not how we generally score around here. this is good analysis, so i think we all appreciate it. the 500 pass looked better. system looked a touch slower as well. would the upper low impact the precipitable value? i would think a miller A would show that look further west, but i've seen systems run through virginia and drop significant snows here which i'm assuming may not all have that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It's nice to have all models agree but when you have the Euro on your side inside 36 hours I'm not to concerned about what the nam twins are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I'm just saying that it's a dynamic upper level low with a pretty ideal track. I do expect banded structure to develop in our area and probably low topped convection type stuff while the ull is west to just underneath us. Nams might not look great at the surface and they may be right based on the very good post that MN just posted. But I also think the nams aren't done parsing the evolution. If you are expecting 12" totals then you might want to rethink. But I do think much of the region gets warning level snow and the heavy sleet prior to the snow just add color and fun to the entire thing. I've said this already but I'm thinking 4" of snow in my yard is a solid conservative gut call. I also think if the band and burst gods hit me right I could crack 6". 6-10" across the northern tier looks like a good bet too. Maybe more. We'll have a better feel tomorrow for the overnight into wed period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's nice to have all models agree but when you have the Euro on your side inside 36 hours I'm not to concerned about what the nam twins are showing. This. The NAM is an awful model much as I’d like to believe the 2 inches of qpf it plunks imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: this is good analysis, so i think we all appreciate it. the 500 pass looked better. system looked a touch slower as well. would the upper low impact the precipitable value? i would think a miller A would show that look further west, but i've seen systems run through virginia and drop significant snows here which i'm assuming may not have that look. The front is to far east, and that is creating an odd trajectory for moisture transport. Will work fine for Boston and the Jersey shore, but the pivot maybe too far northeast for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's nice to have all models agree but when you have the Euro on your side inside 36 hours I'm not to concerned about what the nam twins are showing. 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: This. The NAM is an awful model mich as I’d like to believe the 2 inches of qpf it plunks imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's nice to have all models agree but when you have the Euro on your side inside 36 hours I'm not to concerned about what the nam twins are showing. I dont think you will find a single person here that will disagree with you, but the latest NAM runs are currently what are being analyzed. Next, the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The RGEM runs the 500 low right along the VA/NC border. That is a perfect position for us usually. The surface low is 25 miles off of OC. And the surface looks WAY better than the NAM's. DC gets shellacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: The front is to far east, and that is creating an odd trajectory for moisture transport. Will work fine for Boston and the Jersey shore, but the pivot maybe too far northeast for us. i'm just happy with a 2-4"+ event, but i could see for the big snows why you'd want a strong atlantic moisture fetch (which i'm assuming would allow for that ccb to setup overhead), though i also wonder if on march 21, that may not be the greatest thing as far as a warm nose is concerned since we don't have the strongest of highs in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Rgem straight dumps on DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This h5 closed low pass a thing of beauty on the 0Z RGEM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Even if the globals look good again tonight...what do you give more wait to in this range? Them or the NAMs (which some seem to be concerned about) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Juiced similar to 12z euro with nuke low tucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Again, this is more what I'm thinking than what the nams are doing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Rgem straight dumps on DC. sure does, but man, it's because that sfc low is so far west. not sure if any other guidance has put the low right on the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 0z ICON has a similar low placement to the 0z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 16 minutes ago, 87storms said: this is good analysis, so i think we all appreciate it. the 500 pass looked better. system looked a touch slower as well. would the upper low impact the precipitable value? i would think a miller A would show that look further west, but i've seen systems run through virginia and drop significant snows here which i'm assuming may not all have that look. We can still get a good snowstorm with that kind of a setup, but a MECS+ is off the table. The upper levels need to be dynamic enough to “wring” out enough moisture. That is where my other concern is - despite the good 500 pass, the dynamics don’t look great. Check out the 700 vvs (12km). Slapping around NYC. But around here - bleh. Maybe the NAM is still correct that we pull down 0.3-0.5” QPF during the calendar day Wednesday, but light rates during midday late March daylight don’t give me warm fuzzies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I'm hugging the 18z Swiss super high-res model tonight. Flips me to rain/ice for about 4 hours tomorrow, otherwise all snow. Over 1" qpf as snow for most of the DC-Baltimore region. Relatively little ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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