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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Could you link or show us the map?

I can do both. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/virginia/2018031918/maryland/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180322-0700z.html

cQ1JhOc.png

This model did well with temps during a mixed precip event earlier this year, but I haven't seen it do well consistently enough to have much confidence in it.

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People keep saying the ccb misses us. The best banding within the ccb sets up northeast of us according to most guidance (what else is new) but the ccb crosses right over our area. We're in the ccb associated snow all day Wednesday and there is always some nice banding that sets up towards the back edge of the ccb that's associated with the upper level energy not the frontogenetic banding that's setting up in NJ up through NYC. Maybe the nam is right but I've seen that qpf underdone enough times not to worry yet. 

Also we can't get the kind of banding NJ and NYC gets there. They are just north of the low and on the coast setting up great fromtogenesis  forcing. If the low was sitting just southeast of us like that...say over Williamsburg...we would be raining. Their location north and further along the path as the storm starts to stack and become barotropic vs baroclinic plus their coastal location helps allow them to get that. It wouldn't work for us. That's not how we roll. 

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Again...broken record...the nams don't have the support from all other guidance. Gfs looks great. Still haS best moisture transport aimed at NJ/NYC but it is no slouch through our region. That tucked low is locked. We're going to see some pretty scenes wendesday. A tucked low with closed h5 to the south iS not going to be spotty weak disjointed precip in between. I'm sorry. I'm not buying into that camp. 

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8 minutes ago, Scraff said:

GFS looking good so far...

Low isn't quite as tucked as the 00z RGEM & ICON, or the 12z Euro, but workable.  Looks like it has 0.3 QPF at DCA between 06z & 12z with temps probably just cold enough for snow.  Would be good if DC can manage a couple inches on the ground before too much daylight.  Then 0.23 QPF from 12z - 18z and 0.07 QPF from 18z - 00z.

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11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

We can still get a good snowstorm with that kind of a setup, but a MECS+ is off the table.  The upper levels need to be dynamic enough to “wring” out enough moisture.  That is where my other concern is - despite the good 500 pass, the dynamics don’t look great.  Check out the 700 vvs (12km).  Slapping around NYC.  But around here - bleh.  Maybe the NAM is still correct that we pull down 0.3-0.5” QPF during the calendar day Wednesday, but light rates during midday late March daylight don’t give me warm fuzzies.

E4BDD18A-7B75-4682-860F-003F72D8E714.thumb.jpeg.3b3ba6e4fc11ea527a4e0d63ff86725c.jpeg

 

yea that map shows some nice lift/wringing.  i'm assuming in part due do better phasing between the 500 and surface lows.  hopefully we can salvage something with a more tucked in coastal low.  either way, this storm should have some interesting analysis once it's over.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People keep saying the ccb misses us. The best banding within the ccb sets up northeast of us according to most guidance (what else is new) but the ccb crosses right over our area. We're in the ccb associated snow all day Wednesday and there is always some nice banding that sets up towards the back edge of the ccb that's associated with the upper level energy not the frontogenetic banding that's setting up in NJ up through NYC. Maybe the nam is right but I've seen that qpf underdone enough times not to worry yet. 

Also we can't get the kind of banding NJ and NYC gets there. They are just north of the low and on the coast setting up great fromtogenesis  forcing. If the low was sitting just southeast of us like that...say over Williamsburg...we would be raining. Their location north and further along the path as the storm starts to stack and become barotropic vs baroclinic plus their coastal location helps allow them to get that. It wouldn't work for us. That's not how we roll. 

Good to have ya back, PSU :lol:

Hadn't thought of that side of it...great point (as usual!)

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I can wait for the first crack of thunder tomorrow obs. I cant imagine this not having some cg. Probably east of 95 but when the upper low wraps the convection coming up the coast fun things should happen. 

I'll try to have the video rolling when I get my thunder sleet. Its happening.

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18 minutes ago, cae said:

I can do both. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/virginia/2018031918/maryland/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180322-0700z.html

cQ1JhOc.png

This model did well with temps during a mixed precip event earlier this year, but I haven't seen it do well consistently enough to have much confidence in it.

now that would be a mauling!!!

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