March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[mostman]

7 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Dudes, look at 500mb!

That’s incredible. 

[wxeyeNH]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Slidin east before the really good stuff gets up here. Bastard.

I see that.  Maybe we make up for it in later panels with lingering qpf but wow down south

[78Blizzard]

30 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I have a feeling that the 0z NAM is going to look a lot like that 18z run last night, lol.

ASOUT

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Been worried about this

You have been all over this Tippy! Let's see how the rest of the suite does.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

FFS

Like 2" of liquid in E CT

Ffs?

[Bostonseminole]

tickling 2" of qpf up this way now

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

FFS

Like 2" of liquid in E CT

It’ll be fun when the GFS rolls out 0.50”-0.75” for us. lol

[Greg]

Blizzard of 1888 in Eastern Mass instead of Western Mass

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Slidin east before the really good stuff gets up here. Bastard.

#freejames 

Great event for eastern SNE no doubt.  I am happy with the leftovers here

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2’ for ect with 3’ for se ma, congrats fellaz and nopoles. you’ll remember this one, again, for a very long time. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ffs?

For F*** sake?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

FFS

Like 2" of liquid in E CT

 

[WintersComing]

Kevin gotta be spankin it with this run


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[Hoth]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

2’ for ect with 3’ for se ma, congrats fellaz and nopoles. you’ll rmember this one, again, for a very long time. 

Dude, you would get wrecked with high ratio fronto verbatim. Let's hope it's not being the NAM.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

Kevin gotta be spankin it with this run


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He’s in his feetie pajamas now

[wxsniss]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Been worried about this

Yes you have... wish you had started the obs thread for posterity!

H5 has argued for an earlier interaction and capture, and as you said, the multiple bobbling low centers is often how models sort out the vorticity interactions as we get closer.

That NAM run is widespread 20-30" in eastern MA.

[LSC97wxnut]

Coup for the NAM?  It's been steady with a solution like this for two days now.

Didn't it sniff out a storm earlier this winter?  I forget.

 

*edit - wordiness in first line

[Baroclinic Zone]

Holy ****.  ~2.75" here. 26-30"+ here. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, LSC97wxnut said:

Coup for the NAM?  It's been steady with this solution like this for two days now.

Didn't it sniff out a storm earlier this winter?  I forget.

Did pretty well with 1/4 in bringing that west.

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Coup for the NAM?  It's been steady with this solution like this for two days now.

Didn't it sniff out a storm earlier this winter?  I forget.

early Jan storm

[snowman21]

That is some kind of gradient west of about I-91

[MarkO]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Will, what do you think ratios will be for 495 belt into NE CT? 

[tavwtby]

Aly AFD talking about closed H5 low moving slowly through after the SLp lifts out, bringing additional 2-6" for the region..

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

#freejames 

Great event for eastern SNE no doubt.  I am happy with the leftovers here

leftovers are nothing to sneeze at

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Holy ****.  ~2.75" here. 26-30"+ here. 

Yup. Like 2.9" here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3km NAM in hot pursuit.

[weatherwiz]

The NAM has some insane LLJ...especially at 925mb. An extensive jet streak of >80 knots with > 90 knots at 925. Stronger than the GFS...I wonder if this is a big reason for such high QPF amounts...especially back into a good chunk of CT. What meteorological reasons sort of determine how far from the center frontogenesis banding occurs? Even looking at H7 low track...w/o looking at fronto I would guess it is east of what NAM shows. 

[Chrisrotary12]

55 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Caved on the 6-12'', eh?

Yeah. Don't feel good about it.

44 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well I see that you bent that green line so you could slip Nashua into the 10-15 zone while unceremoniously pushing me into the 5-10.  More changes are needed.

Actually I purposefully re-drew the 15-20" blue line east of where I originally had it to remove Nashua from it.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Dude, you would get wrecked with high ratio fronto verbatim. Let's hope it's not being the NAM.

Yes, I posted the 700 fronto. I’m happy this looks far enough for warning snows...playing with house money. 

[mostman]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

Will, what do you think ratios will be for 495 belt into NE CT? 

If you believe the Kuchera map, it’s about 12:1