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stormtracker

March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

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I actually wouldn't be shocked if we had one more threat. Long range ensembles spit out some crazy solutions. One EPS member smokes D.C. nw with a 2-3 foot storm. Another fringed D.C. and jacks VA with 2 feet. There are others. The pattern isn't bad. But I know how late it is and I could care less I'm not rooting anymore I'm just pointing out don't be shocked if we get one more tease. 

Of course 1942 the area had maybe less snow then this year then march 30th D.C. got 12", Baltimore 22", and Westminster  32". 

#hailmary 

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15 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

 I can't believe with all the precipitation showing up on radar to the south of us in southwest of us that we can get fringed as much as the models look like we're going to be. Something is terribly wrong

Yeah. I’ve been looking at GOES wv loop.   

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually wouldn't be shocked if we had one more threat. Long range ensembles spit out some crazy solutions. One EPS member smokes D.C. nw with a 2-3 foot storm. Another fringed D.C. and jacks VA with 2 feet. There are others. The pattern isn't bad. But I know how late it is and I could care less I'm not rooting anymore I'm just pointing out don't be shocked if we get one more tease. 

Of course 1942 the area had maybe less snow then this year then march 30th D.C. got 12", Baltimore 22", and Westminster  32". 

#hailmary 

Yep. I am a bit on tilt right now. But we can still score into early April. At least those of us to the north and west. But with the way the past 2+ years have gone I wouldnt put a dollar on a 100-1 bet that we score a 3 inch event. Hopefully the deck gets completely reshuffled over the summer and we have a great winter next year. Statistically speaking 3 winters in a row like this in my area are just about impossible. I mean. The past 2 years rank in the top 5 worst winters of all time at OKV. There is no chance we have another winter like that next year. Right?

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6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I saw a handful of huge hits . Maybe 5 or 6. Please no more tracking only for disappoint. I'm ready for Spring lol. 

Edit ... on the eps

A few stupid big hits on gefs too lol. 

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LWX's probability maps (update just before 5PM) are whack right now. 

54% of 2" or more in DC; 38% of 4" or more; 26% of half a foot and 16% of 8" with a cute 5% chance of a foot.

heh

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i actually didn't even think the gfs looked too bad lol.  in fact, if we can somehow get that precip hole to fill in better we're in the game.  i'm not even kidding.  a low forming closer to the coast could cause a surprise.  not saying it will happen!  just saying i can see why rayno would be hesitant to call it off with various pieces so close by.

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually wouldn't be shocked if we had one more threat. Long range ensembles spit out some crazy solutions. One EPS member smokes D.C. nw with a 2-3 foot storm. Another fringed D.C. and jacks VA with 2 feet. There are others. The pattern isn't bad. But I know how late it is and I could care less I'm not rooting anymore I'm just pointing out don't be shocked if we get one more tease. 

Of course 1942 the area had maybe less snow then this year then march 30th D.C. got 12", Baltimore 22", and Westminster  32". 

#hailmary 

That a La Niña year? Lol

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

i actually didn't even think the gfs looked too bad lol.  in fact, if we can somehow get that precip hole to fill in better we're in the game.  i'm not even kidding.  a low forming closer to the coast could cause a surprise.  not saying it will happen!  just saying i can see why rayno would be hesitant to call it off with various pieces so close by.

Problem is the temps. They basically suck. Real bad.

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually wouldn't be shocked if we had one more threat. Long range ensembles spit out some crazy solutions. One EPS member smokes D.C. nw with a 2-3 foot storm. Another fringed D.C. and jacks VA with 2 feet. There are others. The pattern isn't bad. But I know how late it is and I could care less I'm not rooting anymore I'm just pointing out don't be shocked if we get one more tease. 

Of course 1942 the area had maybe less snow then this year then march 30th D.C. got 12", Baltimore 22", and Westminster  32". 

#hailmary 

It’s no longer a Hail Mary. It would be more like sudden death OT.  Though how we got there is beyond me. I probably fell asleep on the couch watching the game...beer in hand...and shocked myself awake when I spilled it on my crotch. And here we are... :lol:

 

eta: Just went off the deep end. 

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Lol imagine if this played out. Looks horrific

 

hrrrx_ref2_ma_37.thumb.png.d3a3e8cb0204c82d06bb79754957461a.png

Edit: This is the precip to clarify basically nothing falls in DC, and what falls is rain

hrrrx_tprecip_ma_37.thumb.png.6c862c7ecd652510a13b2b24b100a86f.png 

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well at the very least it will be interesting to see how this storm plays out in the next 2 days and compare it with what the models were showing.

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32 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

LWX's probability maps (update just before 5PM) are whack right now. 

54% of 2" or more in DC; 38% of 4" or more; 26% of half a foot and 16% of 8" with a cute 5% chance of a foot.

heh

Can someone explain to me how they come up with those numbers..lol. I in 2 chance of 2 inches. 1 in 3 chance of 4 inches. Those odds seem awful high to me. What do they base that off of because i haven't seem any models that really give me a chance at that.

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not sure if the rgem was posted but it follows the same general trend as the others.  sourthern vort heads ots and gets captured/phases just in time to give new england snow.

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1 minute ago, paxpatriot said:

So, someone help me out here. Where does all of that moisture go as it moves east? Chewed up by the transfer? 

C7DF28F7-982E-4FA0-AEC8-77F80C19814C.jpeg

it skirts mostly underneath and we're kinda caught in between the transfer, so i think we lose the lift we need.  the rgem makes it look as if it sort of pinwheels around the coastal helping to tug it further north and probably also phases with that canadian energy.  or something like that.

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8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It will get eaten alive by the crap Apps.

And the space in between is us.  Drying primary over the apps and eastern bombing secondary.  The energy transfers but the precip is gone.  New low blows up to our NE too far to give most of us anything.  Our fate is evident   

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16 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

What's worse is they're part of this region.

they seem to think they'll be enough leftover energy from the ull to enhance precip on the western side of the low.  it's not an impossible task as long as the ull is a little further north than advertised.

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It’s been really easy to accept this failure because I cashed out about 48-60 hours ago. I was all-in up until then, but it just started not feeling right so I took what was left off chips and called it a night.

Only problem is my Dad is going to Maine for work tomorrow, so no doubt I’ll be getting updates from him!

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

It’s been really easy to accept this failure because I cashed out about 48-60 hours ago. I was all-in up until then, but it just started not feeling right so I took what was left off chips and called it a night.

Only problem is my Dad is going to Maine for work tomorrow, so no doubt I’ll be getting updates from him!

Did you used to live in RI or up in New England?

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Can someone explain to me how they come up with those numbers..lol. I in 2 chance of 2 inches. 1 in 3 chance of 4 inches. Those odds seem awful high to me. What do they base that off of because i haven't seem any models that really give me a chance at that.

LWX expected snowfal map says <1

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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