stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 You all know the deal. Moderation tightens up, move the banter to the Banter thread. Your friendly mods are going to be pretty strict. If you see your posts disappearing a lot...well...rethink and try again. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 this thing man....negative impact at this angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What do we do now? Euro improves. GFS falls back. Neither are hits for us. This is far from a done deal so we keep tracking. Am of the opinion that the GFS was probably just an off run. It happens. Euro continues to improve. Not a big fan of the NAM's at this range but the 3K looked very promising extrapolated and the 12K had a disconnect from 500's to the surface where the 500's looked promising. CMC has promise. Honestly I don't think we are sitting too bad at this point. Let's just try to keep our emotions in check because I think we are in for a roller coaster ride the next couple of days as small changes can make a world of difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: This is far from a done deal so we keep tracking. Am of the opinion that the GFS was probably just an off run. It happens. Euro continues to improve. Not a big fan of the NAM's at this range but the 3K looked very promising extrapolated and the 12K had a disconnect from 500's to the surface where the 500's looked promising. CMC has promise. Honestly I don't think we are sitting too bad at this point. Let's just try to keep our emotions in check because I think we are in for a roller coaster ride the next couple of days as small changes can make a world of difference UKIE looks good to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: This is far from a done deal so we keep tracking. Am of the opinion that the GFS was probably just an off run. It happens. Euro continues to improve. Not a big fan of the NAM's at this range but the 3K looked very promising extrapolated and the 12K had a disconnect from 500's to the surface where the 500's looked promising. CMC has promise. Honestly I don't think we are sitting too bad at this point. Let's just try to keep our emotions in check because I think we are in for a roller coaster ride the next couple of days as small changes can make a world of difference WPC isn't paying attention to 12z GFS http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Quote ..Shortwave(s) dropping southward through the interior Northwest U.S., with the southern portion reaching the Plains Saturday... ...Surface low developing over the southern Plains late Saturday and moving toward the Southeast on Sunday... ...Coastal low development/strengthening on Monday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 06Z GFS/00Z CMC blend Confidence: Below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 CMC SAYS ALL ABOARD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: CMC SAYS ALL ABOARD That is the hi-res RGEM or GGEM I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, mappy said: WPC isn't paying attention to 12z GFS http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Irregardless of what the models are showing at any given time I am of the opinion that worst case this gets far enough north to impact at least DC with couple/several inches of snow. The general overall look argues for it in my opinion. The question in my mind is if we can get this to hit on most if not all cylinders to bring this baby farther north with far more substantial snows and as to that I have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: That is the hi-res RGEM or GGEM I believe? hi-res rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Irregardless of what the models are showing at any given time I am of the opinion that worst case this gets far enough north to impact at least DC with couple/several inches of snow. The general overall look argues for it in my opinion. The question in my mind is if we can get this to hit on most if not all cylinders to bring this baby farther north with far more substantial snows and as to that I have no clue.Posted in my home forum, but this looks more of a "when does ULL influence happen and when does it turn the corner" look rather than a clean miss to yours or my South attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: This will be acceptable. I'm sure the other models will now fall in line to King CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Is it fair to say that...in this 12z suite as a whole, several models that have been south made north trends? If there be any similarities we can finally draw between the models...it's that. So we have that...for all we know this could either be a brick wall or the beginning of a trend. I'd much rather see this kind of convergence toward a north trend than the outright north/south chaos we've been having the last several days. Again, stay the course, folks....and buckle up, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 You could see in the RGEM run earlier today that it was going to be a big hit. If nothing else the RGEM and NAM seem to do a decent job with the extent of the precip shield. So once the track gets tuned in we should know if the precip makes it up to us or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 fwiw, the EPS is a good run. precip well into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Could be selective memory or possibly paranoia, but when I start to see models showing an initial suppressed look followed by a later hook back, I get a sick feeling. Those scenarios have a way of screwing our area. Hopefully, the initial slug of moisture makes it far enough north before shunting off to the east. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, MDstorm said: Could be selective memory or possibly paranoia, but when I start to see models showing an initial suppressed look followed by a later hook back, I get a sick feeling. Those scenarios have a way of screwing our area. Hopefully, the initial slug of moisture makes it far enough north before shunting off to the east. MDstorm Yes, but the timing of the shunt might be just what we need. T-minus ~60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, H2O said: fwiw, the EPS is a good run. precip well into the area You don't say? That's a nice surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, H2O said: Id say that if there weren't so many lows out in the middle of the ocean that would be tucked in even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 i like the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: You don't say? That's a nice surprise... Not really. the OP has been chasing the ENS all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Do you think it’s safe to say to toss the lows over Bermuda? That would help our mean for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: i like the EPS Are some of the totals to the Northeast from this weekend's snow showers or from the storm skipping over us and rocking them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 37 minutes ago, mappy said: hi-res rgem I think that's the extended RGEM. High-res is HRDPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I count 11 members out of the 51 that show 6"+ for DC region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just a little disagreement between the GEPS and GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, T. August said: Do you think it’s safe to say to toss the lows over Bermuda? That would help our mean for sure. Not sure anything is safe to say with this system. 1 minute ago, cae said: I think that's the extended RGEM. High-res is HRDPS. Oh. Thanks friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I think the biggest takeaway from the EPS is that it suggests a later start. Snow mean takes longer to increase, and longer to decrease (I mean the 24 hour snow increase mean on the EPS). I can post a picture in a bit, but I'm assuming a later start is a good thing, right?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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