BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 12z EPS We're not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 About 30 EPS members show a half inch or less. Around 12-15 show a hit or more than 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I count 11 members out of the 51 that show 6"+ for DC region Yeah, some big hits in there. It still looks like a nearly "all or nothing" scenario though...only a couple of middle of the road hits that I saw. But not a bad look by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I think the biggest takeaway from the EPS is that it suggests a later start. Snow mean takes longer to increase, and longer to decrease (I mean the 24 hour snow increase mean on the EPS). I can post a picture in a bit, but I'm assuming a later start is a good thing, right? . Hrm...seeing as we've been talking about timing and needing things to phase...maybe it is? Thoughts on this anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 All the out to seas still appear to be following the course that the strong high pressure to the west is pushing the storm eastward. We don't see that most of the time around here, the high needs to be to the nw-n and pushing down and forcing east/ese as suppressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 55 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Irregardless of what the models are showing at any given time I am of the opinion that worst case this gets far enough north to impact at least DC with couple/several inches of snow. The general overall look argues for it in my opinion. The question in my mind is if we can get this to hit on most if not all cylinders to bring this baby farther north with far more substantial snows and as to that I have no clue. Posted in my home forum, but this looks more of a "when does ULL influence happen and when does it turn the corner" look rather than a clean miss to yours or my South attm. I agree. Would put money on that I think. My question is where does the transfer to the coastal occur and how far out ahead does it occur from the upper level support. All this means a world of difference on possible impacts for on region on north. First off if it is too far south we are out of the game before it even starts. The surface low will race so far ahead of the upper level support that by the time the upper levels reach it it will be well out to sea. But at this point I don't buy the far southern solutions on some of the models in regards to the lows passage to our south. Think we will end up seeing that passage on the northern edge of guidance if not north thus why I think DC scores at least a little something. But this farther north passage also means we will most likely see the transfer occur farther north. At this point I am thinking from around OBX to Portsmouth which is a good location to see that occur for our region. But even that doesn't mean much if we see this transfer occur as rapidly as I have been seeing on some of the model runs because once again we see the surface low jumping significantly ahead of the upper levels. What we really need to see is the primary get to at the very least the western VA region before the transfer starts to occur. Thus the 500's can rapidly reacquire the surface low with minimal disruption to the intensification. The farther east that primary can come before that transfer the better our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 EPS 25-35% give > 1" from north to south in MD ~20% give > 3" (fairly uniform from north-south) 15-20% give > 6" (fairly uniform north south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I know this is 0z from last night, but just another model to take a look at. 0z GFS FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I know this is 0z from last night, but just another model to take a look at. 0z GFS FV3. It looks like it supports its 0z operational run fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Don't look now but I thought the EPS just made a strong move towards a big storm look at 500's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Don't look now but I thought the EPS just made a strong move towards a big storm look at 500's. We need a deeper coastal signal as far as intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 EPS basically shifted the whole trough westward 50-75 miles and now has a strong closed upper level low dropping swiftly into the upper portion of the trough helping to turn the axis of the trough into a more favorable position for a possible coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Dynamic Tropopause maps showing how the GFS lost it's low in TN Valley. You can see it comes north with the Lower Tropopause (Higher Vorticity) every run, until it finally misses the 850mb warm nose (not shown) causing the surface low not to form. Also explains why it came north last night, it caught the northern tip of the warm nose despite being closer to missing it all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: We need a deeper coastal signal as far as intensity. Ignore the mean intensity and look at the clustering of lows. Roughly 2/3'rds of the members are in the center or west of guidance in a a favorable if not great location. Believe me, if the 500's are somewhat accurate and that low is generally in that location you will most likely see your intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 NAM ain't looking to hot at H5 vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM ain't looking to hot at H5 vs 12z Think I will reserve judgement for awhile. 12Z sort of surprised me after its initial looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Think I will reserve judgement for awhile. 12Z sort of surprised me after its initial looks. I'm out to 45 and 500 is further north from about central Missouri to Northern Missouri. It's a noticeable shift. What does it mean? No idea yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM ain't looking to hot at H5 vs 12z it don't look great at the surface either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM ain't looking to hot at H5 vs 12z waiting is the hardest part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: EPS basically shifted the whole trough westward 50-75 miles and now has a strong closed upper level low dropping swiftly into the upper portion of the trough helping to turn the axis of the trough into a more favorable position for a possible coastal. Agree but that's also a recipe for how Boxing Day and other similar swing hook around us storms can happen. I don't like seeing that possibility introduced. If that vort keeps trending west we will be ok. But if it dives in like the EPS shows or east at all it will shunt this under us then capture it and pull it up the coast to bomb the same places that have been getting rocked all winter. Just the thought of this ending that way is painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Ignore the mean intensity and look at the clustering of lows. Roughly 2/3'rds of the members are in the center or west of guidance in a a favorable if not great location. Believe me, if the 500's are somewhat accurate and that low is generally in that location you will most likely see your intensity. Look at the western most members...they are legit tucked in bombs. It’s seeing the potential for a big one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 34 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: We need a deeper coastal signal as far as intensity. 19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Ignore the mean intensity and look at the clustering of lows. Roughly 2/3'rds of the members are in the center or west of guidance in a a favorable if not great location. Believe me, if the 500's are somewhat accurate and that low is generally in that location you will most likely see your intensity. Sorry BTR, I miss worded this. I should have said that roughly half of those 2/3 members are in a favorable if not a great location. Would also like to add that with so many members west of guidance it may mean that we will see an adjustment westward of that mean low in future runs which again puts it in a favorable spot for intensification. Normally I would say we are at the limits of the usefulness of the ensembles but with such divergence with the different models and within the models themselves they still may be a useful tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, mappy said: waiting is the hardest part. It's a mess. It's going to slide out to sea to our south. We can employ the weenie rule of saying it's the NAM past 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Sorry BTR, I miss worded this. I should have said that roughly half of those 2/3 members are in a favorable if not a great location. Would also like to add that with so many members west of guidance it may mean that we will see an adjustment westward of that mean low in future runs which again puts it in a favorable spot for intensification. Normally I would say we are at the limits of the usefulness of the ensembles but with such divergence with the different models and within the models themselves they still may be a useful tool. Yea, the weakish low from the 850mb mean panels is obviously from a spread of outliers. I should have known that all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 NAM doesn't just slide out to sea - it zooms out to sea. Looks like the NS acts as the kicker. That's how fragile this set-up is. If the timing is off between the NS and southern stream, with the NS coming behind, it boots it. If the NS comes first, it squashes it. Need perfect timing for a capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: It's a mess. It's going to slide out to sea to our south. We can employ the weenie rule of saying it's the NAM past 48 hours the NAM keeps separating the ULL and surface low so so much it gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The 3k looks different and more like 12z 3k..out to 41 only though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: the NAM keeps separating the ULL and surface low so so much it gives me pause. I think the fact that the globals aren’t locked in yet might explain why the nam is all over the place. I’m much more interested in what the globals say until maybe tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's a mess. It's going to slide out to sea to our south. We can employ the weenie rule of saying it's the NAM past 48 hours The 3K doesn't exactly having me do hand flips either. All I can say about both is just look at how much the surface and 500's is dancing around. Should give you a hint how much weight you should put on them at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3k is also slower with the NS..don’t think that’s going to work either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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