Scraff Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, benjammin said: South of Lynchburg where I now live I lock it in. But if I'm in Arlington where I'm from I'll of course roll the dice for better. Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk Just now looking at the clown map closer, I’ll take a hard pass. 3” for Eastern HoCo!? I practically had that 2 nights ago within the 3 hours of white asteroids. We can definitely do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Looks like a complex setup, a lot of moving parts. Factor in that it’s March, a month of typically dynamic transitions and you have a cocktail of volatility. Yeah. March and April make me pull my hair out sometimes. April not so much for out here, but where I forecast. I feel for you guys over there at the office. Having a snow storm in this pattern is like pulling teeth around here, especially once you factor in climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Why are so many people back posting after they left after the euro? Don’t you people die? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 16 minutes ago, supernovasky said: 96h: Ok board. You have one of two options. You lock this above map EXACTLY AS SHOWN in, or you take your chance with whatever happens. What do you do? Screw it! I’m rolling the dice that we get back to 10-20 inches baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 20 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Is this the first time the GFS has shown a decent storm on an "off" run? so far with this threat? I don't know about that but if I recall correctly, when this storm first showed up it was a Monday storm, not Sunday like in the previous few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: So which model is embarrassingly incorrect? Euro or GFS? This might sound biased but the GFS has been more accurate than the Euro this winter so I'm going to trust it for now. Euro should stay in Europe and the American Model should be the best for America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 A lot of zombies posting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Shocker, goes to show you how little shifts here and there make a big difference. PSU and Chill have said it many times. Chaos. Others get frustrated by it (Howard) but it's what makes this exciting imo. Or as Bob says sometimes the weather is just gonna weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Total Precip from GFS Nice band of heavy precip showing up on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, supernovasky said: 96h: Ok board. You have one of two options. You lock this above map EXACTLY AS SHOWN in, or you take your chance with whatever happens. What do you do? Can I lock in the gfs track and h5 but assume the normal expansion and increase in qpf on the NW side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Oddly enough there was a storm we were tracking a few years ago. Can't remember exactly when, however all the models looked great at around 72 hours then suddenly the 18z GFS lost the storm then all the big models followed. Maybe this storm will be the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: So which model is embarrassingly incorrect? Euro or GFS? EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mordecai said: This might sound biased but the GFS has been more accurate than the Euro this winter so I'm going to trust it for now. Euro should stay in Europe and the American Model should be the best for America Lock it up! I'll take 10 inches after 4 for the entire winter! I have leaned more toward the GFS than the Euro for quite a while for many reasons. Get that what I call a 45/65 low out of the way and it's game on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 25 minutes ago, supernovasky said: 96h: Ok board. You have one of two options. You lock this above map EXACTLY AS SHOWN in, or you take your chance with whatever happens. What do you do? I want a lot more. Go big or turn the lights off. This time of year, need huge qpf and rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, HighStakes said: Oddly enough there was a storm we were tracking a few years ago. Can't remember exactly when, however all the models looked great at around 72 hours then suddenly the 18z GFS lost the storm then all the big models followed. Maybe this storm will be the opposite. March 19th 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I want a lot more. Go big or turn the lights off. This time of year, need huge qpf and rates. I don't want two inches of slop. Give me 8" + or pop a ridge on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yeah. March and April make me pull my hair out sometimes. April not so much for out here, but where I forecast. I feel for you guys over there at the office. Having a snow storm in this pattern is like pulling teeth around here, especially once you factor in climo. I’m sure they are having a tough time with this one. Not sure if I mentioned, but I moved on from the field office about 2.5 yrs. ago. I still have the same position title but moved to National HQ, full time briefings, deployments etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I want a lot more. Go big or turn the lights off. This time of year, need huge qpf and rates. Depends where you are in our area though. Temps are better to the west as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I like the precip maps. Shows 2 inches of qpf in Southern MD. Wouldn't take too much to push that up across the rest of MD. I see that as positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 This has been a roller coaster of emotions... I want off this ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: EURO. Dont forget the Euro has the Ukie on it's side as well. It is not out on an island right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Depends where you are in our area though. Temps are better to the west as always. That was definitely a my backyard observation. I need a qpf bomb. Which would doubly benefit you. 24 hours of snow totaling six inches on the models won’t work in ground truth for me on March 11. The good news is we know this setup has the potential of something big, that’s what I am hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Dont forget the Euro has the Ukie on it's side as well. It is not out on an island right now. True, but the UK has been throwing darts this season with big east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: True, but the UK has been throwing darts this season with big east coast storms. The UK has been a joke this winter. Jumps all over the place. I haven’t been impressed with Euro this winter as in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12z GFS 72: 994mb Memphis 18z GFS 66hrs = 992mb AL/TN border 12z EURO 72hrs: 1010mb on the LA coast 12zCMC 72hrs: 1006mb 30 miles NW of Mobile bay. 12z UKMET 72hrs: The site crashed but I assume it was between the Euro and CMC 18zIcon 66hrs: 1004mb S GA. The GFS is 12mb deeper and 100miles further north than any other model along the Gulf Coast at 66hrs!!!!! It has been this way consistently. Probably a feedback error, I'd use it with caution, or toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Sorry but reading through the last few pages has been a banter filled mess. I'm sure the moderators will start to crack down soon. They will probably start with this post..haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 18Z NAVGEM misses by a ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 That's quite a pattern for it to stay cold this long. I'd be willing to say it's nonevent. I wonder scientifically if there has ever been >400 RNA for 5 or more days and it's been persistently cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Sorry but reading through the last few pages has been a banter filled mess. I'm sure the moderators will start to crack down soon. They will probably start with this post..haha! My guess is that if the 0z shows a favorable solution then a storm mode thread could be made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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