Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Lock that euro in... 12-18” here.

the tree damage driving through Easton is incredible... I saw like 8 big pines right next to each other all ripped down.

Probably the most impressive wind damage I’ve seen.

A paste blizzard on Wednesday wouldn’t be good for those without power still

[codfishsnowman]

definitely an eastern lean today, i am sure the gfs is not correct...meh

[dryslot]

Thats 18-24" for BGR

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not that anyone cares around here... but, that snow product for the Euro looks balkishly underdone for PHL-NYC ... ...

Like, zero ? the storm is already east of the coast at 72 hours and with dynamic/deepening on that track their likely to get some deform bands subtended back SW of this thing for a few hours there.

dumb

I agree.. was thinking it looked way Under done down that way too.

[wxeyeNH]

Total qpf.  Another nail biter for me.  Will it slip just to far east for the western folks?

[wxsniss]

3 relatively consistent Euro runs within 96 hr timeframe for a decent hit... that used to be a lock... can we get back the confidence of storms past?

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Pretty tame. Maybe 6-8" verbatim?

I love how 6-8" is getting a whole bunch of "meh" this run, haha.

[WinterWolf]

That Euro snow map has about a foot for me...I’ll gladly take that..not greedy.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will take it! 

Could this be one if the cases where the precip field gets wider as we get closer, or is this a definite tight system?

It seems to tighten up as it goes to town but keep in mind that being on the qpf gradient is often not a bad spot...that's frequently where one of the good outer weenie bands sets up. Still a bit too early to determine that stuff but you're not in a bad spot right now. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Total qpf.  Another nail biter for me.  Will it slip just to far east for the western folks?

I like that QPF look though for some interior mid-level magic.  Often just on the gradient or just outside the gradient...maybe CT River Valley area or eastern VT down through western Mass. 

Probably too far east for me but good to see moderate QPF so far west.  That's why it always seems to be a "surprise" because they often set up just outside the big QPF gradient so you aren't expecting it.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I agree.. was thinking it looked way Under done down that way too.

Well... to be fair, Will brought up a good point.  I was assuming a fairer distribution of QPF when I made that statement, which ...yeah, that may be skimpy on QPF?  If the fall rates are off and they get more actually anything falling from the sky it's probably going to be snow even there. 

But again, I didn't notice that QPF was barren.  That's interesting why it's so low...

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It seems to tighten up as it goes to town but keep in mind that being on the qpf gradient is often not a bad spot...that's frequently where one of the good outer weenie bands sets up. Still a bit too early to determine that stuff but you're not in a bad spot right now. 

Thanks.

[CoastalWx]

To me H7-H5 lift and what not argued for good snows back to at least the river up NNE of there. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... to be fair, Will brought up a good point.  I was assuming a fairer distribution of QPF when I made that statement, which ...yeah, that may be skimpy on QPF?  If the fall rates are off and they get more actually anything falling from the sky it's probably going to be snow even there. 

But again, I didn't notice that QPF was barren.  That's interesting why it's so low...

The snow maps are often just QPF maps, but guess that's hard to tell if you can't see the QPF.

[NorEastermass128]

Winds with this?

[moneypitmike]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it slow so  bit as it approaches the gulf of Maine. That is a crippling page job for like Scooter and BOS. 

Your phone typing is as bad as mine.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Winds with this?

Yes.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The snow maps are often just QPF maps, but guess that's hard to tell if you can't see the QPF.

Lol, for humans AND the model, that is true -

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Your phone typing is as bad as mine.

You want to be at pit2 for this one, That's 18" this run

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To me H7-H5 lift and what not argued for good snows back to at least the river up NNE of there. 

Yea, I like Kev to hunch for deform love.

[Logan11]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The snow maps are often just PF maps, but guess that's hard to tell if you can't see the QPF.

We need a GFS solution for VT and NY I suppose, but if it whiffs east so be it. I think the next one after that has hugger written on it..hopefully not insider runner.

 

Caveat...Upslope etc. but still be prolific for the northern Greens even in a EC solution.

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yes.

Meant to say what type of winds with this.

Gusts to 40-50?

[Typhoon Tip]

...uh heh...  who the hell really wants 18" of blue snow... Even in 1997, where the snow fell to some 24 and even 30", the temp went to 30F which sort of helped there...though still huge water content.

but, if this were that critical 32 and felled 18" ... I guess good by to the grid.

[powderfreak]

The funny thing is the GFS by hour 102-108 is actually east of the Euro in SFC low track but spreading much heavier moisture back as far as NNY.  

Euro is much more compact with the moisture circulation as it tracks into Maine.  

[Greg]

33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Need a track inside the BM, the west deserves it. UK is too east. 

Why does the west deserve it now?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Not buying the qpf and track. closer to the coast initially then it slips east before getting tugged into GOM. It went against every 0z eps member. 

[JBinStoughton]

Just now, Greg said:

Why does the west deserve it now?

The east deserves it because we got shafted by the last one. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I like Kev to hunch for deform love.

Let’s get a nice heavy wet Sapling snapper Wednesday and I’d be ok if it ended 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, powderfreak said:

The funny thing is the GFS by hour 102-108 is actually east of the Euro in SFC low track but spreading much heavier moisture back as far as NNY.  

Euro is much more compact with the moisture circulation as it tracks into Maine.  

Look back in January 4th storm...that got a lot of precip way back west...more than what was thought...I think this will too.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Logan11 said:

We need a GFS solution for VT and NY I suppose, but if it whiffs east so be it. I think the next one after that has hugger written on it..hopefully not insider runner.

 

Caveat...Upslope etc. but still be prolific for the northern Greens even in a EC solution.

Like I just posted, there's definitely some differences if the scale of the moisture on the EURO and GFS.  It's not all track driven.  The EURO really gets compact south of SNE, while the GFS spreads the love much further out from its SFC track.