Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm... To be honest, I carry some reservations about the recent uptick in the usage of Blizzard, both in dialogue by offices, local and national, but also ..I am noticing that blizzard warnings are being handed out like tic-tacks for every storm nowadays. 

The odd ...I guess 'hypocrisy' is that ...yeah, I also think they were too stingy with it before... So, perhaps what's needed is a middle ground usage of both, terminology and warning set ups.

The problem is that storm management in terms of crisis prevention ...ranging to response, certainly is effected by people's ability to take things seriously, and doing so appropriately/relative to a given threat. If we bandy blizzard about to regularly, then people think it's okay to run down to the corner store in the blizzard, because they remember what it physically looked like out the window and doors the last several times...

I do think the blizzards and bomb cyclones are way overdone in the media. We dont need to argue that. But isnt a wpc afd more for regional offices and weenies who read it...and not the public and or media? 

[Typhoon Tip]

Seems looking at the mid level forcing ..that low should have turned left a little more than that... interesting.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems looking at the mid level forcing ..that low should have turned left a little more than that... interesting.

Saw the same. I think the look is explosive and a 84hr nam prog is all we need it to do. Surface details on it mean nada.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I do think the blizzards and bomb cyclones are way overdone in the media. We dont need to argue that. But isnt a wpc afd more for regional offices and weenies who read it...and not the public and or media? 

Well... that's an interesting question, and something I have in mind in this discussion ... who is and is not the public in a totally exposed network?

You are the public, as is your neighbor, the people milling around after church service, walking the malls and sitting at traffic lights.   There's no point in distinguishing between "internal speaking demeanor" and what is "intended for public consumption" if the whole thing is open to public consumption. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

45 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Geez big numbers being tossed around

Some eps members have it.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm kind of gun shy up here after the last storm got blocked with minimal impacts CNE/NNE.  Could this one also get blocked. Come up and then get shunted ENE with another near miss.  Just looked at the NAM.  I know its the end of its run so should be taken with a grain of salt.  It really strengthens the system and looks like a hugger at 78 and then at 84 it goes due east.  That's great for you guys but another miss for the ski resorts.  Thought?

Its not going east OTS if that's what your referring too.

[Ginx snewx]

Anyone smell Elephant piss, didn't think so. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... that's an interesting question, and something I have in mind in this discussion ... who is and is not the public in a totally exposed network?

You are the public, as is your neighbor, the people milling around after church service, walking the malls and sitting at traffic lights.   There's no point in distinguishing between "internal speaking demeanor" and what is "intended for public consumption" if the whole thing is open to public consumption. 

I get what you’re saying. I highly doubt, however, non weather hobbyists know where to read that afd. I find the afd ‘open to public’ obviously but directed towards the internal masses of weather nerds. 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its not going east OTS if that's what your referring too.

At least not before dumping on Lewiston!

[ice1972]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm... To be honest, I carry some reservations about the recent uptick in the usage of Blizzard, both in dialogue by offices, local and national, but also ..I am noticing that blizzard warnings are being handed out like tic-tacks for every storm nowadays. 

The odd ...I guess 'hypocrisy' is that ...yeah, I also think they were too stingy with it before... So, perhaps what's needed is a middle ground usage of both, terminology and warning set ups.

The problem is that storm management in terms of crisis prevention ...ranging to response, certainly is effected by people's ability to take things seriously, and doing so appropriately/relative to a given threat. If we bandy blizzard about to regularly, then people think it's okay to run down to the corner store in the blizzard, because they remember what it physically looked like out the window and doors the last several times...

Anecdotally and a bit OT but related to your post.....Inniticed the recent storm out west over Lake Tahoe KRNO issued Blizzys for the upper mountain.....I grew up out there and went to Lake Tahoe all the time and never recall Blizzys issued....it was always Winter Storm Warnings even when the winds were gonna blow 70+ and 2-3 feet inbound.....IIRC

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Anyone smell Elephant piss, didn't think so. 

Bingo!   Don’t even mention this last event in the same breath.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get what you’re saying. I highly doubt, however, non weather hobbyists know where to read that afd. I find the afd ‘open to public’ obviously but directed towards the internal masses of weather nerds. 

The everyday Joe is checking the weather app on there phone, Certainly not going to the WFO's site to read, Most would not even comprehend it anyways.........lol

[moneypitmike]

Just now, dryslot said:

The everyday Joe is checking the weather app on there phone, Certainly not going to the WFO's site to read, Most would not even comprehend it anyways.........lol

I don't understand half of it. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Anyone smell Elephant piss, didn't think so. 

I think the smell of snow has trumped it.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get what you’re saying. I highly doubt, however, non weather hobbyists know where to read that afd. I find the afd ‘open to public’ obviously but directed towards the internal masses of weather nerds. 

I see the same 'ballooning of impression' in here though...  And, you'd be surprised ... I've had people at the office (unrelated industry) say hey John, check out this site if found, and it's all that business. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

The everyday Joe is checking the weather app on there phone, Certainly not going to the WFO's site to read, Most would not even comprehend it anyways.........lol

Right. Apps and news stations. They couldn’t care less about phasing shortwaves and mid level frontos, nor understand it...I barely do. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right. Apps and news stations. They couldn’t care less about phasing shortwaves and mid level frontos, nor understand it...I barely do. 

All you need to do today is toss out "bomb cyclone" or "blizzard" and watch the shelves get liquidated at the grocery stores, They understand that.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The everyday Joe is checking the weather app on there phone, Certainly not going to the WFO's site to read, Most would not even comprehend it anyways.........lol

No.. Come on man... Media picks up on it and then that completes the total mass exposure... point is, that "behind the scenes" aspect is no longer behind the scenes - and that defeats the purpose.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I see the same 'ballooning of impression' in here though...  And, you'd be surprised ... I've had people at the office (unrelated industry) say hey John, check out this site if found, and it's all that business. 

I gotchya. To extent, my boss thinks she’s a forecaster because she found weather.gov. So I guess they can explore and stumple upon the cool maps and afd’s, eventually. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Freak always looking to shaft folks 

EPS is much farther sw

I'd weight the OP more heavily at this point... remember, PNA is still negative,  so I think the 12z is BS with the heavy snow south of NYC.

I think it will detonate later than that,  but you just have to hope for a compromise between the 12z and 00z euro.

[JBinStoughton]

This is another rainer for EMA isn’t it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I gotchya. To extent, my boss thinks she’s a forecaster because she found weather.gov. So I guess they can explore and stumple upon the cool maps and afd’s, eventually. 

 

haha...  ... well, maybe there's a positive in that, too.  I mean, perhaps this is all growing pains along a sort of 'technological evolution' ... where somewhere down the line, that openly exposed system has sophisticated its method in sending the message that is appropriate, such that people react the right way.  Trial and error ...

Anyway, like I was just sayn' to Dryslot - the point is, the 'behind the scenes discussion' counter-point is no longer valid, because it's no longer behind the scenes, and that's the risk. 

20 years ago, you were/are certainly more right... That AFD prooobably was only exposed to internal channels of governments, some media, and higher education in the subject matters.  But, the internet is really the problem - hate say ...but it's true. It's the wild wild west with information now... totally with no scruples or morality ...  dramatized and 'faked' for profit, and it's gotten to the point where it has eroded the ability of reputable firms and organizations to even compete. Why? Because the hoi pollloi will always gather outside the fireworks factory when the inevitability of time catches up to their long standing safety ratings...   - as Leslie Nielson discovered in "Naked Gun" ...  that was colossally funny!  There's this detonating fireworks factory in the background and he's standing in front of it notifying this gathering throng of gawkers to "...please disperse. Go on home... There's nothing to see here..."

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Lets also not forget about our bomb cyclone in the Atlantic. There is only so much room this system could go because of it. Recent trends have been slower to move it out so our low pops closer to the coast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'd need a Feb 5, 2001-esque deform band. Not easy to accomplish. I suppose it's theoretically possible in this but I'd prob want to see more evidence of it once we get inside of 48 hours to entertain the possibility. 

This is the scenario to watch for because of where H5 closes off..very good spot.

[rnaude241]

2 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

This is another rainer for EMA isn’t it. 

I hope not. This winter has sucked big ones down here south of Taunton. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lets also not forget about our bomb cyclone in the Atlantic. There is only so much room this system could go because of it. Recent trends have been slower to move it out so our low pops closer to the coast. 

Hence why OTS solutions are not even on the table, Closer inside tracks still are though as well as rain.

[JBinStoughton]

1 minute ago, rnaude241 said:

I hope not. This winter has sucked big ones down here south of Taunton. 

This winter had a lot of promise and then February lol. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

Hence why OTS solutions are not even on the table, Closer inside tracks still are though.

Fully agree. We add the block and this is a recipe for a well modeled system with narrow goalposts. When the phasing occurs, will determine who cashes in. 

[rimetree]

I'll take the 0z Euro please

[Typhoon Tip]

One thing at least I was wrong about ... Can't recall if it was earlier in this thread or somewhere else, ...but, I assumed the impulse that's slated to spill out of Ontario, cross our region tonight and join forces with the now defunct "bomb cyclone"  ... would impart a fresh, colder air mass behind it?

That is not so.

In fact, it is actually advecting warmer -NAO air ...

Now people are really confused, because -NAO is supposed to = cold.. right?

The -NAO block is actually a warm mid level ridge... In this case, it has approached near-by and is stalled ...sitting squarely over the lower Davis Straight region, and you can see the 500 mb wind pips start blowing SE as this wave tonight passes by.. It's also true right up to the 250 mb level.  That's the circulation around that -NAO ridge, and I was just looking at the 800 mb NAM numbers for tomorrow and they are actually warmer than before the wave tonight passes by.  

It's fascinating meteorology... but it does make me wonder if we are considering that enough during this system.  Right now, I hedge it's okay - for winter enthusiasts. Because there's no crystal ball, and barring the invention of one...the models have, on average,  amply cold air in the region to work with still.  I mean, when I say the 800 mb level warms, I 'm not talking Bermuda shorts here, either... it's still less the 0 C at that level.