Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Let's hope we're all singing Doo Wah Diddy Diddy later today!

OT but I remember exactly where I was when I heard that song for the first time in the summer of 1964 heading into my senior year of high school.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The 3k NAM is pretty damn cold almost to the canal.

There are some model that’s are giving us 8-12” of pure paste here

[HoarfrostHubb]

I do like this wording in the WSW for my zone

..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches,
  with localized amounts up to 20 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Most of interior Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
  impossible. Tree branches could fall. Be prepared for
  significant reductions in visibility at times.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Any Harv tweets

[ice1972]

7 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I like when Ryan gets excited. That's generally a sign that things will go apes***.

This x1000......

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Any Harv tweets

Have not checked but he is not as twitter based as some other mets

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Hard to believe stuff still this much change in the model runs within 24 hours...

Changes seem exaggerated due to the thermal profile being extremely borderline. We wouldn't notice if we had below 0c 850s to DC.

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

OT but I remember exactly where I was when I heard that song for the first time in the summer of 1964 heading into my senior year of high school.

I remember watching them on The Ed Sullivan show..................lol

[JC-CT]

NWS is still calling for a heck of an elevation gradient along the borderline areas. Like 3" to 12" over 5 miles near IJD and the Quinebaug valley.

[Hoth]

Wow at the Mt Holly radar blowing up. Like that pivot extrapolated.

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Hard to believe stuff still this much change in the model runs within 24 hours...

I think as models get more accurate, people have increasing expectations of accuracy.

The broad strokes of this storm were forecast with remarkable consistency like 5 days out, no?  And the area of uncertainty, though meaningful to you, and a lesser extent me, given we are at the rain snow line, is just incredibly hard to forecast. They are right to just highlight this area as largely unknown, and I get not just knee jerking to every new model guidance, and having an opinion.  I don't totally get not budging at all though, but I expect they are just waiting to do so.  I think they can get away with it a bit more given the timing.

[SouthCoastMA]

The latest HRRR runs are pretty snow to the coast

[wxsniss]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ironically enough, they have the outer bounds of uncertainty crossing my property, when in reality the only thing I am uncertain about as it relates to the forecast for MBY is what in the hell they are looking at-

Agree... I can't criticize, I obviously respect the profession, they're solid in an extremely tough job and this was a hard forecast. That said, I don't think your area is in question.

[ORH_wxman]

Lol at GFS for tonight....At least it finally has 925mb temps below 0C from BED to ORH...still trying to torch the sfc though.

[rnaude241]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The latest HRRR runs are pretty snow to the coast

Indeed, they seem very cold.

[jbenedet]

My best guess for Mass.

[NeonPeon]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The latest HRRR runs are pretty snow to the coast

That HRRR run sees a fun dance of sleet rain and pounding paste throughout the night, even down here.  I'd love that.

[StormSurge]

21 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I like when Ryan gets excited. That's generally a sign that things will go apes***.

This is the real barometer we measure storms with.

[CoastalWx]

GFS bumped up the QPF again. LOL at temps in the U30s tonight in central MA.

[ice1972]

12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Wow at the Mt Holly radar blowing up. Like that pivot extrapolated.

Ya.....love the look so far....shes comin

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My best guess for Mass.

That's a really good map. I think you can prob slide that 3-6 a little further south in interior SE MA but pretty damn good as to what I'm thinking. 

[eyewall]

Well looks like it is time for me to melt here in BTV. This one will slip away. Advisory level event only it appears.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree... I can't criticize, I obviously respect the profession, they're solid in an extremely tough job and this was a hard forecast. That said, I don't think your area is in question.

Yes, I do not feel as though a display of respect and criticism are mutually exclusive. They have actually fared well this season, and no professional is going to operate flawlessly within a given field, but I do not view this system as one of their better efforts thus far.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My best guess for Mass.

Wow....ballz to the wallz the next town up from me.

Good luck.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Well looks like it is time for me to melt here in BTV. This one will slip away. Advisory level event only it appears.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS bumped up the QPF again. LOL at temps in the U30s tonight in central MA.

Thats like 2 feet in interior E MA if the qpf is right (and it's mostly snow as it probably will be outside of 128)....but I don't trust the GFS QPF either with the thermals...it might be enhancing it.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thats like 2 feet in interior E MA if the qpf is right (and it's mostly snow as it probably will be outside of 128)....but I don't trust the GFS QPF either with the thermals...it might be enhancing it.

That's what I thought too. I think that amount is overdoing it. Nothing really has that.

 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thats like 2 feet in interior E MA if the qpf is right (and it's mostly snow as it probably will be outside of 128)....but I don't trust the GFS QPF either with the thermals...it might be enhancing it.

Mby May pull a 10+ out of this.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thats like 2 feet in interior E MA if the qpf is right (and it's mostly snow as it probably will be outside of 128)....but I don't trust the GFS QPF either with the thermals...it might be enhancing it.

Read my mind.

I don't feel comfortable forecasting over 20" anywhere because the heavy stuff is out by like 3am, but won't be shocked to see someone pull 2'.

30" I'd say is like 1/4 shot.

[Damage In Tolland]

Trend has been to extend snow well into the morning tomorrow