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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted

What  the Boston mets on twitter are trying to say is that although it may snow all the way to Logan Airport, the amount that will be on the ground solid may be 5,6 or 7" of pure glop on the grassy surfaces and car tops but wet pavement and sidewalks.

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

GOES-16 has a 1 minute Meso-sector for the event. With all the little nuances. Need real-time profile temps through the column.   

I just read somewhere that the Gulf Stream is gonna collapse at the same time we go into a super low sunspot cycle. In other words, a new ice age.

And, did you know that astronauts never landed on the moon? It was all staged in Hollywood, which is gonna slip off the edge of our flat earth when the San Andreas goes ballistic in a couple years.

Great for an SNL skit about deplorables

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

With the rates later on tonight, it's probably not going to matter if you are in BOS or BED....on the shoulders of the heavy core is where you'll see the differences I think. Like BED will prob be accumulating at 31-32 moderate 1/2 vis or light 3/4 vis while BOS may struggle at 33-34 in that intensity.

But there is definitely a core 4-6 hours where the rates are pretty sick, so I think even BOS will prob get 6+ from that alone.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

With the rates later on tonight, it's probably not going to matter if you are in BOS or BED....on the shoulders of the heavy core is where you'll see the differences I think. Like BED will prob be accumulating at 31-32 moderate 1/2 vis or light 3/4 vis while BOS may struggle at 33-34 in that intensity.

But there is definitely a core 4-6 hours where the rates are pretty sick, so I think even BOS will prob get 6+ from that alone.

Looks like I'm gonna win my bet with Fisher

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, dendrite said:

Glad they’re retiring these POS models soon. 

Yeah, the changes at h5 at 12 hours vs 6...nasogood. So now we are going to get a model with the thermals of the GFS and the overresolution-driven unreliability of the NAM? sweet

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Hey in fairness, I thought the coast was cooked too...esp from near BOS southward...there wasn't a lot of evidence to say they weren't. You had the Euro as an eastern outlier "barely" having them cold enough for good snow.

It just happened that this was the storm where the Euro got its mojo back and took other guidance to the woodshed inside of 48 hours.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

With the rates later on tonight, it's probably not going to matter if you are in BOS or BED....on the shoulders of the heavy core is where you'll see the differences I think. Like BED will prob be accumulating at 31-32 moderate 1/2 vis or light 3/4 vis while BOS may struggle at 33-34 in that intensity.

But there is definitely a core 4-6 hours where the rates are pretty sick, so I think even BOS will prob get 6+ from that alone.

Yes... not understanding the holding back on the warnings / 6+ forecasts... the shoulders could be light rain, but the meat is at least 6 hours of heavy wet snow that should accumulate.

We just had an OES pass through... brief decent snow rates. Thermals are not warmer during snowfall later, and even colder at the surface. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hey in fairness, I thought the coast was cooked too...esp from near BOS southward...there wasn't a lot of evidence to say they weren't. You had the Euro as an eastern outlier "barely" having them cold enough for good snow.

It just happened that this was the storm where the Euro got its mojo back and took other guidance to the woodshed inside of 48 hours.

Euro, Ukmet, and the bastard child JMA which was the furthest east and coldest of them all.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The synoptics weren't favorable for the coast either....it's a needle-threader there.

I suppose there could still be some BL concerns directly on the coast. I don't see an issue anymore at 925 and certainly not 850.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, JC-CT said:

Euro, Ukmet, and the bastard child JMA which was the furthest east and coldest of them all.

They were. But when a tick west means maybe 1C warmer in the column and all rain...it's tough to go for a snowy outcome in such a borderline profile. It still is too. You need dynamics, and that is a tough way to run a snowy outcome. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Euro, Ukmet, and the bastard child JMA which was the furthest east and coldest of them all.

Ukie def was on the Euro side, but wasn't quite as favorable until yesterday.

I'm talking the coast here....not just west on the coastal plain like the 128 belt. I always thought they were in the game.

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