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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow...read my mind.

The only thing i disagree with is more snow for coastal SW CT then the hills of NW CT, which is an area, for the most part, above 1000ft. I think if the SW coast verifies 12-20, which is certainly possible, the NW hills do just as well. I can't really remember a time that wasn't true, except for the obvious qpf paltry scrape jobs, which this is not. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The only thing i disagree with is more snow for coastal SW CT then the hills of NW CT, which is an area, for the most part, above 1000ft. I think if the SW coast verifies 12-20, which is certainly possible, the NW hills do just as well. I can't really remember a time that wasn't true, except for the obvious qpf paltry scrape jobs, which this is not. 

Its because of the mid levels, not the low levels.

 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I'm in no position to pass any criticism on experts far more knowledgeable and experienced... this was obviously an extremely tough forecast (and still has to verify), and I myself was sweating with my own Boston 6-10 forecast to co-workers, so I can only imagine the stress involved in widely public forecasts for much larger areas.

But there was a bit of a windshield wiper effect with the BOX maps chasing model consensus the past 2 days... I wonder if that could have been avoided with less frequent updates or waiting until closer? Fortunately, I doubt the public is as aware of this as we are. And I don't know of a single TV forecaster (Harv included) who had this correct (again, still has to verify).

My general thinking is that if you're confident enough to drop a warning to an advisory, then you probably weren't confident enough to issue a warning in the first place. 

I issued warnings much earlier than I normally would last night, because I thought even if parts of my coast mixed for a time that once the heavy lift and change back to snow occurred 6+ looked like a solid bet. Now I'm sure we would catch a lot of flak in SE NH if someone doesn't get 12", but I issued the warning based on 6+ and the totals I was forecasting at the time represented my most educated guess. 

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

My general thinking is that if you're confident enough to drop a warning to an advisory, then you probably weren't confident enough to issue a warning in the first place. 

I issued warnings much earlier than I normally would last night, because I thought even if parts of my coast mixed for a time that once the heavy lift and change back to snow occurred 6+ looked like a solid bet. Now I'm sure we would catch a lot of flak in SE NH if someone doesn't get 12", but I issued the warning based on 6+ and the totals I was forecasting at the time represented my most educated guess. 

Agree

And sometimes you just can't please any and all expectations and misconceptions, especially if people are equating a warning with a promise of 12".

In any case... you up all night? Gonna be a long fun day Wednesday, I'm gonna try to recharge...

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree

And sometimes you just can't please any and all expectations and misconceptions, especially if people are equating a warning with a promise of 12".

In any case... you up all night? Gonna be a long fun day Wednesday, I'm gonna try to recharge...

Midnight shifts. They aren't all bad, I got to sleep through the crappy 12z runs. :lol:

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Sigh...well, my rain seems to be right on track. Even though I've always known I would be rain, the weenie in me was hoping for a last second miracle.

I guess I will just have watch it play out on tv through live shots.

I hope I don't lose power

6z NAM continuing southeast trends

Colder, continues huge hit for eastern SNE, track looks close to BM

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

This is finally an example where the snow probabilities we do work well. Large, widespread snowfalls. 

I think it nicely shows the range we're realistically talking about. Our forecast is largely 12-18". The high potential has a big swath of 18-21", and the low potential has 6-8" in the mountains but less than 6" south and east of there, with next to nothing at the coast. 

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duncanwxnh

duncanwxnh

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

My general thinking is that if you're confident enough to drop a warning to an advisory, then you probably weren't confident enough to issue a warning in the first place. 

I issued warnings much earlier than I normally would last night, because I thought even if parts of my coast mixed for a time that once the heavy lift and change back to snow occurred 6+ looked like a solid bet. Now I'm sure we would catch a lot of flak in SE NH if someone doesn't get 12", but I issued the warning based on 6+ and the totals I was forecasting at the time represented my most educated guess. 

Nothing wrong with that. I had a team out there evaluating damage yesterday and we've had a lot of things damaged. 3,6,12 inches shouldn't matter out there. Still in recovery mode and the most gentle of storms will hurt. BTW, if you happen to find our sand let me know. (Too soon to say but it 'looks' like we lost a bunch) Frequently, educated guess, is all we have left. Well done :-)

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, duncanwxnh said:

Nothing wrong with that. I had a team out there evaluating damage yesterday and we've had a lot of things damaged. 3,6,12 inches shouldn't matter out there. Still in recovery mode and the most gentle of storms will hurt. BTW, if you happen to find our sand let me know. (Too soon to say but it 'looks' like we lost a bunch) Frequently, educated guess, is all we have left. Well done :-)

I'm pretty sure we had crews out measuring dune loss with the last event. The beach profiles should drop quite a few feet.

I know the people interviewed about the Revolutionary era shipwreck uncovered at Short Sands Beach say it's typically buried in 6-7 feet of sand to protect it. 

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duncanwxnh

duncanwxnh

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm pretty sure we had crews out measuring dune loss with the last event. The beach profiles should drop quite a few feet.

I know the people interviewed about the Revolutionary era shipwreck uncovered at Short Sands Beach say it's typically buried in 6-7 feet of sand to protect it. 

Have a couple of shots of dune loss. I lived on Cape Cod for years and even at this age (shhh) I still find it fascinating :-)

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have no clue what to do.

Perhaps a 3-6” call in BOS itself? Seems like they should be able to verify the low end even if guidance is a bit too gung-ho on the SE ticks, and the high end seems doable with the overnight runs? Nightmare situation forecasting for the most populated parts of the region. 

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