Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[ORH_wxman]

00z Ukie maps

 

 

[8611Blizz]

Every boston tv air met has gone with at least some rain here in Boston. How long it rains and how long it snows however is different on almost each one.

[bristolri_wx]

Haven't posted a map in a while... here's my thoughts...

[wxsniss]

0z vs. 12z

UKMET shifted east ~ 30-50 miles

ICON shifted east ~ 50 miles

That's every member of 0z suite with Euro pending, must be some new data that was ingested

[Greg]

I know most are waiting for the Euro right now but if this gets any further east or colder solutions, by the time you see the morning weather maps, they will be changed.

[CT Rain]

I’m pretty bullish. I definitely feel like this will be a fun storm around here and could overperformed.

- earlier issues I had with dry slotting and snow growth issues seem gone with a slight tick SE with mid level lows and more importantly more compact low level lows.

- max strength of mid level lows just SE of MTP maximizes frontogenesis up here.

- fairly long duration MAUL/instability.

- potential for pivot of snow band with dry slot punched off toward GON.

- extreme omega modeled and punching through DGZ.

 

we snow. Could easily become a 12-18 kinda deal locally and maybe a swath of higher impact power outage snow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I’m pretty bullish. I definitely feel like this will be a fun storm around here and could overperformed.

- earlier issues I had with dry slotting and snow growth issues seem gone with a slight tick SE with mid level lows and more importantly more compact low level lows.

- max strength of mid level lows just SE of MTP maximizes frontogenesis up here.

- fairly long duration MAUL/instability.

- potential for pivot of snow band with dry slot punched off toward GON.

- extreme omega modeled and punching through DGZ.

 

we snow. Could easily become a 12-18 kinda deal locally and maybe a swath of higher impact power outage snow.

And....we take em off.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

SWC says everybody dances:

We going with 12-18” statewide, 6-12” se ct, along southern RI into SE MA with lesser amounts towards the islands, 3-6”. Boston metro 6-12”. Then Basically take the 12-18” wide swath in CT and run it up northeast to Maine with localized 20-24” jacks in NE MA , S NH and ME. Good luck and goodnight. 

[ice1972]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And....we take em off.

I never put em back on.....holy moly....

[HullMA]

A little ocean effect to kick it off here in newburyport. 35 degrees. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

SWC says everybody dances:

We going with 12-18” statewide, 6-12” se ct, along southern RI into SE MA with lesser amounts towards the islands, 3-6”. Boston metro 6-12”. Then Basically take the 12-18” wide swath in CT and run it up northeast to Maine with localized 20-24” jacks in NE MA , S NH and ME. Good luck and goodnight. 

I see you neglected NW MA and S VT where I fear our 12" totals are starting to slip away to the East...

[Greg]

35 Degrees and light ocean effect snow?  That may be a good sign, not sure though.  Reason is that you're at 35 right now with light precip and snowing.  Think what it would be like with heavier precip rates dragging that cold air down right above the deck.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I see you neglected NW MA and S VT where I fear our 12" totals are starting to slip away to the East...

My b. 12-18” includes W MA.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

35 Degrees and light ocean effect snow?  That may be a good sign, not sure though.  Reason is that you're at 35 right now with light precip and snowing.  Think what it would be like with heavier precip rates dragging that cold air down right above the deck.

The reason it is a good thing is that it shows we have cold air aloft (need at least a 10C temp difference between surface and aloft to produce the convection). If we had a mild or even marginal air mass these OES showers wouldn't even exist, as convection would be too shallow for precip. 

[ice1972]

I'll go in to work tomorrow in Cheshire in the morning.....about what time do the heavies move in and make 84 a mess back to West Hartford?  2pm ish?

[HullMA]

3 minutes ago, Greg said:

35 Degrees and light ocean effect snow?  That may be a good sign, not sure though.  Reason is that you're at 35 right now with light precip and snowing.  Think what it would be like with heavier precip rates dragging that cold air down right above the deck.

Yep station nearby reporting 36. The local davis on my street is 35. Im glad to see it. Were really going to struggle with the marine layer here

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have my final call narrative all written up...just awaiting the Euro for the final touches on the map.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32.6/26

[ice1972]

This is really great....I could stare at water vapor loops all day.....

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=northeast-wv-1-96&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100

[78Blizzard]

Euro initialized a tic or so west.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

No obs thread yet?

[40/70 Benchmark]

She's southeast..

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

looks great hope qpf follows.

[Greg]

"She's southeast" I just saw that Ray.  I'm with ya watching.  This is a good sign for sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just a hair se and colder...but more precip

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

looks great hope qpf follows.

Group hug on this one, bro.

[wxsniss]

Hr 30 huge hit on eastern SNE... looks like track southeast of ACK close to BM

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Group hug on this one, bro.

Take my totals up and i’ll go to first base.

[OceanStWx]

Nothing wrong with that Euro run. If anything the mid levels are a hair west.

[wxsniss]

Ticked southeast, huge hit across all of SNE into NH and ME

Southeast folks join the part as well

The final word, and all other models played catchup. NWS and media outlets will be scrambling to up amounts this morning.