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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Ticked southeast, huge hit across all of SNE into NH and ME

Southeast folks join the part as well

The final word, and all other models played catchup. NWS and media outlets will be scrambling to up amounts this morning.

Hey now, GYX doesn't have to scramble amounts up this morning! ;)

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Hey now, GYX doesn't have to scramble amounts up this morning! ;)

Lol for sure... GYX had a good hit along (and obviously was not living on the edge like eastern SNE) :)

But BOX (as several others commented) had an extremely tough forecast and now will have to revert back to the map they had Monday... Tuesday's map has 2" for Boston

 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Lol for sure... GYX had a good hit along (and obviously was not living on the edge like eastern SNE) 

But BOX (as several others commented) had an extremely tough forecast and now will have to revert back to the map they had Monday... Tuesday's map has 2" for Boston

I don't love the messaging involved with dropping a warning to an advisory (Cape Ann) before the snow even starts flying. I don't think it was so high confidence that they original warning could be dropped. I probably would have just rode the warning and introduced some mixed wording to the zone.

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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Lol for sure... GYX had a good hit along (and obviously was not living on the edge like eastern SNE) :)

But BOX (as several others commented) had an extremely tough forecast and now will have to revert back to the map they had Monday... Tuesday's map has 2" for Boston

 

BOX should read this thread.....seriously....that 2:51 pm map was awful

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted

I'll see you guys in the morning.  Should be very interesting around these parts.  By the way, just for laughs, I took a quick look at the HRR and RAP for trends;  It looks like the center is pretty off shore to me.  Good night.:snowing:

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don't love the messaging involved with dropping a warning to an advisory (Cape Ann) before the snow even starts flying. I don't think it was so high confidence that they original warning could be dropped. I probably would have just rode the warning and introduced some mixed wording to the zone.

I'm in no position to pass any criticism on experts far more knowledgeable and experienced... this was obviously an extremely tough forecast (and still has to verify), and I myself was sweating with my own Boston 6-10 forecast to co-workers, so I can only imagine the stress involved in widely public forecasts for much larger areas.

But there was a bit of a windshield wiper effect with the BOX maps chasing model consensus the past 2 days... I wonder if that could have been avoided with less frequent updates or waiting until closer? Fortunately, I doubt the public is as aware of this as we are. And I don't know of a single TV forecaster (Harv included) who had this correct (again, still has to verify).

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