February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[SnowHole413]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

CMC and german look interesting for this weekend

Yeah CMC and German, that’s all you need to say...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

Yeah CMC and German, that’s all you need to say...

He’s still riding high from Feb 2006 when the JMA scored on the nyc blizzard....if it can, then anything is possible.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are you high or drunk?

Are you looking at the models ?

Ukie also had precip at 12z. Stop being a weenie and look at the models.

[Rtd208]

So true

 

[ice1972]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s still riding high from Feb 2006 when the JMA scored on the nyc blizzard....if it can, then anything is possible.

Didn't the JMA also score with Jan 2005 also?  That was my first real snow event following on Eastern and our first blizzy warning in West Hartford IIRC......lol JMA

[weathafella]

4 hours ago, ice1972 said:

Didn't the JMA also score with Jan 2005 also?  That was my first real snow event following on Eastern and our first blizzy warning in West Hartford IIRC......lol JMA

No.  I don’t think we even knew JMA existed at that time.   January 2005 belonged to the euro. 

[ineedsnow]

Canadian has a sneaky storm for the weekend.. In my opinion the 6z gfs moved towards it.. Could happen but not counting on it..

[ineedsnow]

The icon model hasnt been that useful but also shows it

[moneypitmike]

I'll be missing the warmth here next week for a couple days' work trip to FL.  The week after that I'll be in SF.  Hopefully winter will return by the time of my return.Meanwhile, the driveway and path out to the woodpile are treacherous.  I'm not sure if the remaining couple inches of snow is serving any really useful service, so I won't be devasted to have it melt and get replaced with something less icy.

15.5*

 

[CoastalWx]

EPS with a massive Greenland ridge.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Are you looking at the models ?

Ukie also had precip at 12z. Stop being a weenie and look at the models.

Weenieology > modelology

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weenieology > modelology

He’s right. All the ensembles actually have something. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS with a massive Greenland ridge.

Wheres the cold though? looks like a rain storm pattern.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS with a massive Greenland ridge.

d10 eps still has the stubborn se ridge with all the cold in Canada. Does it get beaten down at d11-15?

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s right. All the ensembles actually have something. 

Snow Saturday . Gone by Sunday afternoon?

[mahk_webstah]

The EPS GIF through end of Feb that Earthlight posted looks to me like a huge block between Greenland and Iceland, a 50-50 low, a suppressed SE ridge, and a ridge off of the west coast with a SW low.  Does that not suggest swfe with the blocking causing redevelopment on the coast or a good chance we are on the cold side of the gradient?

Edit - and I should add, some ridging over Quebec and Ontario.  Looks like a good set up unless I'm missing something

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Are you looking at the models ?

Ukie also had precip at 12z. Stop being a weenie and look at the models.

I’m selling any snow maps south of the pike to you at a premium.

[CoastalWx]

35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wheres the cold though? looks like a rain storm pattern.

It’s definitely cold enough verbatim. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS with a massive Greenland ridge.

The question is do we see Heather on the way in or on the way out.

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The question is do we see Heather on the way in or on the way out.

I prefer on the way out. 

Sneaky storm is sneaky. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'll take a hit of what the Canadian is smoking.  Pretty good hit verbatim, now we just need 3 more models on board. 

[qg_omega]

There is no storm on saturday, in fact high pressure is overhead.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

There is no storm on saturday, in fact high pressure is overhead.

On the ensembles it was more Sat night into Sunday. But at this stage, sort of meaningless to argue. The op runs aren't really bullish, although 6z GFS brushes the Cape with snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

With certainty ... the differences in the 00z operational model runs has been discussed, but as I really only engage in this stuff over morning coffee these days I realize I'm probably repeating sentiments here. 

The Euro and GFS must be modeling on two distinctly different planetary bodies in orbit around the sun: one them is on Earth, the other is on a fantasy world. 

I'm just not sure which one.  

The teleconnectors really don't support the operational GFS, not even those based upon it's own ensemble cluster.  It seems to be eroding ridges ...thus, tamping down the latitude of warm thickness penetration, quite persistently at that. As of yesterday, both the CDC/CPC agencies actually supported the look of the operational Euro, ironically.

The Euro is/was probably being a bit fantastic that far above climo. Such a result is/was probably less likely - enter myriad of reasons here that more than just seem to materialize serving to normalize such appeals.  

Meanwhile, the GFS is probably carrying on with a progressive bias that is hammering/shearing down ridge arcs too prodigiously... probably shallowed out troughs, too.  That then lends to it having polar highs from residual confluence episodes moving swiftly by to the north.. setting the stage for these repeating ice/mixy looks.  

Reality will as usual cast some where in between.  

 

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I prefer on the way out. 

Sneaky storm is sneaky. 

GEFS for Sat night Sun, 3-4 interior 1-2 to the coast

[EastonSN+]

Extremely interesting March incoming.

EPS and GEFS are now in agreement with all teleconnections with the exception of the epo, where GEFS keeps it slightly negative (EPS slightly positive). Also, GEFS is a little more aggressive with the extent of the negative phases of the AO and NAO. To counter this, both have the PNA as negative, rising towards March to slightly negative.

We will find out soon enough if the NAO and AO can override the pacific to allow a storm to slow and explode off the coast for snow. Will be interesting regardless.

Also Interesting is the split in the weather community, approx. Half saying a period of snow while the other stating warm and snowless.

Does anyone have analogs for similar teleconnections?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Extremely interesting March incoming.

EPS and GEFS are now in agreement with all teleconnections with the exception of the epo, where GEFS keeps it slightly negative (EPS slightly positive). Also, GEFS is a little more aggressive with the extent of the negative phases of the AO and NAO. To counter this, both have the PNA as negative, rising towards March to slightly negative.

We will find out soon enough if the NAO and AO can override the pacific to allow a storm to slow and explode off the coast for snow. Will be interesting regardless.

Also Interesting is the split in the weather community, approx. Half saying a period of snow while the other stating warm and snowless.

Does anyone have analogs for similar teleconnections?

It's really early to claim any side right now. Lets not forget how March 2010 turned out with blocking too...lol.  All you can say is that the type of blocking shown could create a higher chance of a large precip event. No idea about ptype...not even going to attempt to go there. Our more classic large precip events feature more of a Davis Strait or a hair west type blocking. Not quite there yet. 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's really early to claim any side right now. Lets not forget how March 2010 turned out with blocking too...lol.  All you can say is that the type of blocking shown could create a higher chance of a large precip event. No idea about ptype...not even going to attempt to go there. Our more classic large precip events feature more of a Davis Strait or a hair west type blocking. Not quite there yet. 

Thanks

[Ginx snewx]

Don't know if anyone picked up on this but the UK had a snowstorm on Sun early am day

[HoarfrostHubb]

We sneak.     

Still la la land but better than watching ice melting into mud