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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What? About stating what a run shows? Of course it won’t verify like that if you have a trip planned 

Well it doesn't show 80s in ski country but it's warm. You don't look at models you just take what the experts say and throw in some ridiculous commentary lol

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro trying to make up for Friday's tone-down with obscene heat at D8-9.

Yeah... I got +14.5 at 850 mb on a well-mixed WSW trajectory ...  Sun is just now coming out of the seasonal nadir but that really looks like an 80 F deg afternoon there.   

you know ... I have conjectured in the past that Nina's sometime launch early springs - ..I hadn't been considering that lately, but perhaps we all should?   We don't have to get 80 per se and still be pretty bemused by the scale and extent of winter abandonment going on there.  The cold reservoir in Canada has shrunk by almost half it's mass by D 10 interestingly enough.  

Still, I can't get out of my own way on this three year propensity to always dim heat in verification over the appeals of middle and extended ranges... Friday's erosion tact sort of demo's that in action frankly.  It's really like there's more than one thing going on... hard to parse out what's culpable.   The Nina thing, or this heat dimming thing ... sort of dichotomy/offset ... in a warming pattern so how much, let alone how much is attributed to either. 

Yet, there's some sort of a statospheric intrusion going.  I understand that Nina's tend to have less SSW occurrences, but there is a positive correlation too with lowering solar cycles and the phase of the QBO... which could easily offset that.  If there's a downweller getting involved then the AO may come to the party in the first week of March...  oy

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

If you can predict what NNE will be like in March you should get a job working for Ski Resorts, silly boy, silly post

Even sillier boy for actually taking my response to Kevin seriously.  Just a boat load of frustrated SNE'er folks over this crap pattern.  

Have fun, and enjoy the skiing.  Hopefully it turns out wonderful for you.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I got +14.5 at 850 mb on a well-mixed WSW trajectory ...  Sun is just now coming out of the seasonal nadir but that really looks like an 80 F deg afternoon there.   

you know ... I have conjectured in the past that Nina's sometime launch early springs - ..I hadn't been considering that lately, but perhaps we all should?   We don't have to get 80 per se and still be pretty bemused by the scale and extent of winter abandonment going on there.  The cold reservoir in Canada has shrunk by almost half it's mass by D 10 interestingly enough.  

Still, I can't get out of my own way on this three year propensity to always dim heat in verification over the appeals of middle and extended ranges... Friday's erosion tact sort of demo's that in action frankly.  It's really like there's more than one thing going on... hard to parse out what's culpable.   The Nina thing, or this heat dimming thing ... sort of dichotomy/offset ... in a warming pattern so how much, let alone how much is attributed to either. 

Yet, there's some sort of a statospheric intrusion going.  I understand that Nina's tend to have less SSW occurrences, but there is a positive correlation too with lowering solar cycles and the phase of the QBO... which could easily offset that.  If there's a downweller getting involved then the AO may come to the party in the first week of March...  oy

Yeah I'm not really inclined to take the OP Euro very seriously at this lead time...especially with a solution like that which is so anomalous relative to climo. If we are still seeing that inside of day 6, then maybe we start wondering. Though as mentioned...Friday's 70F on the Euro has disappeared within 2 runs back to the typical upper 40s to mid 50s type dirty warm sector with rain showers and the front intruding from the NNW much faster than previously.

 

As for March, the uncertainty seems quite high...the walloping the strat vortex is taking may or may not throw some winter goodies down the pipeline. Too early to tell, but the idea can't be completely ignored.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

And to add to Will's sentiments...  keep in mind that the GFS has never really been interested in tossing out ludicrous warmth like some recent Euro runs... 

I know people like to carp on that model, but a lot of that is out of popularity and not so much based upon constructive criticism.  Yes..the model has pitfalls ...but they all do, and we all know that the Euro's not infallible, as has been proven at times this winter.  But, much like some people in this world get to stink like schit while delivering roses ... I guess people pick their poison in models for the same reasons.  Kidding of course..  One thing "possibly" in the Euro's favor, the operational GFS is colder in complexion than it's own ensemble mean so ... we'll see. 

That all said, quite to the contrary the GFS has only tepid 850s washing bout below 0 C about ever 30 hours on average with several chances even at ice/mix in there ...  If the Euro scores a coup at this range with something like that, it's a story for grandkids..otherwise, I sit in wait of 10" of overrunning followed by the power outage ice on D10 ...  pos

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Angus

Angus

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

It was beyond awesome . I was telling  ORHWX on the ski lift Friday how incredible it was to watch an entire Mountain with a years worth of natural and blown snow completely melt off in 4 days. The sound of water rushing was incredibly loud, huge boulders banging thru culverts.Maine  had had an impressive snow event at the beginning of March too. But man the skiing was as good as it gets, pure buttery turns in shorts and tee shirts. Once in a lifetime experience I will never forget, we had low 90s at the base and mid 80s up top

I had a # of pre-bought ski tickets remaining when the heat wave arrive including Saddleback. On day 2 or 3 of the melt, I decided they weren't going to make it to the weekend - they didn't - so made a decision to day trip to Rangeley from metro west Boston. First run of day, I skied a trail that had like a 3' base with a few balsam fir tops sticking out. I went back later in day and the slope had melted out completely. Water was just pouring off the mountain. If I recall I left the house at 4:30AM and got home at 9:30PM! The combination of heat, skiing a full-day and solo drive was brutal. By the next weekend it had cooled off, with more pre-bought tickets, I drove to Stowe early Saturday and skied on their icy slopes and then drove to NH and skied in a rain storm at Loon on Sunday. That was the end of the ski season with exception a trip to Mt. Washington in early May which had an early June snow pack. Based on base depths, that season was set up to be a great spring ski season before the heat wave.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Vague memories of March 84, but pretty sure the one I have was from the end of the month nor'easter.

There was a big snow to ice event in the interior on Mar 13-14...it dumped a crap ton of snow in NH and ME....Tamarack loves to talk about that one because I think it was his peak snow depth. Frigid airmass leading into it.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Was the end of March...Mar 28-29. Dumped 17" in ORH but also had a wind gust over 100mph at Blue Hill.

 

Storm was an absolute beast:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1984/us0329.php

Reminds me a bit of what happened on the south shore prior to flipping to all snow in 97.

 

METAR KNZW 292000Z 04024G34KT 1/2SM -TSSNPL FG OVC003 01/00 A2907 RMK TB S MOVG N /CNL LGTIC SLP845 T00060000

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