February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Had a decent event on the 20th too, I think you came up the week after?

 

 

Yeah I came up on the 21st-23rd....snowpack there was absolutely ridiculous. The event on the 20th I think dropped like 15 inches...was not supposed to be that big. RGEM nailed it though I recall...had like over an inch of QPF for that area of Maine and adjacent NH with mid-levels just cold enough.

 

Anyways, the GFS sort of shows how some of these events could turn sneaky if the timing is right...there's a lot of cold air in Canada...it's not a 2012 furnace across the whole continent.

[dryslot]

Some of the post in here, Are lol and very bun worthy.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I came up on the 21st-23rd....snowpack there was absolutely ridiculous. The event on the 20th I think dropped like 15 inches...was not supposed to be that big. RGEM nailed it though I recall...had like over an inch of QPF for that area of Maine and adjacent NH with mid-levels just cold enough.

 

Anyways, the GFS sort of shows how some of these events could turn sneaky if the timing is right...there's a lot of cold air in Canada...it's not a 2012 furnace across the whole continent.

Sneaky has always been on the table and I'll take credit for using the term a few days ago when I said the upcoming weekend could be a "sneaky" system. 

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Had a decent event on the 20th too, I think you came up the week after?

I was in your buddies in Sumner's area riding Saturday, Full on winter and i broke a mile of trail in 2' off pow.

[Damage In Tolland]

45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He can never be wrong, will claim it was a reverse psych post

How come no meteograms lately?

 

[weathafella]

Didn’t 1997 have a ridiculously warm February?   

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

It was beyond awesome . I was telling  ORHWX on the ski lift Friday how incredible it was to watch an entire Mountain with a years worth of natural and blown snow completely melt off in 4 days. The sound of water rushing was incredibly loud, huge boulders banging thru culverts.Maine  had had an impressive snow event at the beginning of March too. But man the skiing was as good as it gets, pure buttery turns in shorts and tee shirts. Once in a lifetime experience I will never forget, we had low 90s at the base and mid 80s up top

I was at killington for that. Went from 100% open at the beginning to nearly closed in a few days. I got one of the worst sunburns of my life snow boarding in a tank top. I agree that was a once in a lifetime event. The base is impressive even in southern Vermont right now. It will take a major long lasting warm period to destroy it. As long as we don’t see a full out torch things should be fine 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Didn’t 1997 have a ridiculously warm February?   

Yeah, but nothing compared to last year.

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I was in your buddies in Sumner's area riding Saturday, Full on winter and i broke a mile of trail in 2' off pow.

Nice yea he texted me yesterday asking what day we were coming up.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah, but nothing compared to last year.

ironically the best week of winter was in last Feb for us

2017-02-09	33	12	22.5	-5.0	42	0	1.70	14.5	13
2017-02-10	26	6	16.0	-11.7	49	0	0.00	0.0	12
2017-02-11	30	18	24.0	-3.9	41	0	0.11	2.0	13
2017-02-12	32	18	25.0	-3.0	40	0	0.66	4.4	15
2017-02-13	32	22	27.0	-1.2	38	0	0.07	0.5	15
2017-02-14	35	16	25.5	-2.9	39	0	0.00	0.0	14

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How come no meteograms lately?

 

You can go snowshoe on the coastal confines of Hudson Bay.

[weathafella]

NAO or lack thereof has killed us the past few years.

[jbenedet]

Confidence in -PNA developing early next week went up significantly past 24 hrs.... If that happens, as indicated on the ensembles today, record warmth incoming. I'm still in wait and see mode, but I'm def leaning well AN next week after looking at the updated teleconnections and 12z guidance. 

 

[Lava Rock]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Confidence in -PNA developing early next week went up significantly past 24 hrs.... If that happens, as indicated on the ensembles today, record warmth incoming. I'm still in wait and see mode, but I'm def leaning well AN next week after looking at the updated teleconnections and 12z guidance. 

 

Great, every time I come back and see if things have gotten better, they've only gotten worse.

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAO or lack thereof has killed us the past few years.

I haven't had a below normal seasonal snowfall since the abysmal 2011/12 season.  My closest season to normal was last year when I had 45", which is ~5" above normal.

[CoastalWx]

Boy, I'd take what the GEFS is selling in Greenland.

[Cobalt]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boy, I'd take what the GEFS is selling in Greenland.

Seems in line with the look the CFS Weeklies are advertising

[weathafella]

15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I haven't had a below normal seasonal snowfall since the abysmal 2011/12 season.  My closest season to normal was last year when I had 45", which is ~5" above normal.

It’s interesting-BOS was mildly below snow wise 2015-16 and this year the jury is still out-could end up below but we’ll see.  The rest were AOA.

[Damage In Tolland]

TOORRCHH!!!

shut em down 

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boy, I'd take what the GEFS is selling in Greenland.

Notice how the SE ridge retrograding west allows those heights over Greenland to build.  By the end of the GEFS run, the SE ridge is gone.

[jbenedet]

As I'm sure has already been mentioned if the Euro/EPS is correct and the trough over the Pacific is as amped up and west as advertised we probably see a lot of backdooring in ME NH and NE MA.

[jbenedet]

26 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Great, every time I come back and see if things have gotten better, they've only gotten worse.

We will likely backdoor a lot next week. But yea for big snow events, next week is not good. May have to watch out for ice potential though...

[ORH_wxman]

End of week looks pretty meh on warmth now on euro. It's mild but like 50ish with rain. Low is trending south so we don't really get into the clear warm sector like some of those fantasy runs that had 70F.

[jbenedet]

Should be a great weekend at the NNE slopes at least.

[CT Rain]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boy, I'd take what the GEFS is selling in Greenland.

Not totally impossible given the ravaging the stratosphere is taking. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Not totally impossible given the ravaging the stratosphere is taking. 

I want to see it get inside of like 180 hours these days, lol....like pulling teeth.

[Hoth]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

TOORRCHH!!!

shut em down 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro trying to make up for Friday's tone-down with obscene heat at D8-9.

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro trying to make up for Friday's tone-down with obscene heat at D8-9.

No Kidding. Jeez.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro trying to make up for Friday's tone-down with obscene heat at D8-9.

Maybe a bit toned down from the 00z run?  There were some obscene heights over us on last nights run. 582 line was tickling the MA/CT line.