February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[CT Valley Snowman]

Not great trends south of the Pike on Wednesday, hopefully the setup can sag back southeast a bit.  Getting a bit hungry for more than scraps here.  A nice 6 inch plus mainly snowfall event would get us back on track around this area.

[Damage In Tolland]

Best SNE can hope for is 1-2 more snowfalls that get us near Climo amounts. Any big KU or weeks period of snow chances is gone and with all guidance locked in on a very warm Morch.. well .. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Best SNE can hope for is 1-2 more snowfalls that get us near Climo amounts. Any big KU or weeks period of snow chances is gone and with all guidance locked in on a very warm Morch.. well .. 

Reasonable thoughts.  

[ineedsnow]

Looks bullish considering everything shifted a bit north..  

Tuesday Night

A chance of snow, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday Night

Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow between 2am and 5am. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

 

[backedgeapproaching]

23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The S VT areas are not looking great tonight so need to cash in on Wed. 

ALY going with 6-8" over higher terrain in SVT, could be worse. But, yea, could be some slop in there too. I would think a net gainer would be in order.

[MJO812]

Close the shades for the coast until late February

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

ALY going with 6-8" over higher terrain in SVT, could be worse. But, yea, could be some slop in there too. I would think a net gainer would be in order.

Well that's pretty bullish so we take if that happens.  Stratton area could use a base of natural. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

26 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Looks bullish considering everything shifted a bit north..  

Tuesday Night

A chance of snow, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday Night

Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow between 2am and 5am. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

 

Yeah, my p/c says 100% chance heavy snow on Wednesday.   I find that a little odd coming from BOX 3 days out on a system that still isn't locked on the models. 

[codfishsnowman]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, my p/c says 100% chance heavy snow on Wednesday.   I find that a little odd coming from BOX 3 days out on a system that still isn't locked on the models. 

these pt and click forecasts are the worst thing that has happened to noaa....the more detailed nws forecasts were so much better

[ORH_wxman]

Wednesday has a good sfc CAD sig...but just need the midlevels to tone down a tad for a great front ender. If it amps up any more then SNE will be out of the game again. 

[LurkerBoy]

Yeah, looks like this month is going to end up AN with rain for coast. SO much for a rockin' Feb 5 onward! Disappointing winter for sure, cold, yes, but not fun. I think the main reason meltdowns happen like this is because we all know there's limited time left for us to have great winters before things change globally. 

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Yeah, looks like this month is going to end up AN with rain for coast. SO much for a rockin' Feb 5 onward! Disappointing winter for sure, cold, yes, but not fun. I think the main reason meltdowns happen like this is because we all know there's limited time left for us to have great winters before things change globally. 

Meh.

23.7/15

 

[Blizz]

6 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Yeah, looks like this month is going to end up AN with rain for coast. SO much for a rockin' Feb 5 onward! Disappointing winter for sure, cold, yes, but not fun. I think the main reason meltdowns happen like this is because we all know there's limited time left for us to have great winters before things change globally. 

I think whether the changes are good or bad for snowy NE winters are still up for debate. But yeah, not going to be the February we thought a week ago.

[qg_omega]

Does next weekend look like a Rainer?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Best SNE can hope for is 1-2 more snowfalls that get us near Climo amounts. Any big KU or weeks period of snow chances is gone and with all guidance locked in on a very warm Morch.. well .. 

Put the pipe down.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Does next weekend look like a Rainer?

I'd get through the next two systems before worrying about next weekend.

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Close the shades for the coast until late February

No suprise there.

I still think Wed could be a decent front ender for alot of sne.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

these pt and click forecasts are the worst thing that has happened to noaa....the more detailed nws forecasts were so much better

I hardly ever look at those.

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'd get through the next two systems before worrying about next weekend.

Given most work during the week, I would hate missing two snow storms to get up north for a Rainer next weekend

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Put the pipe down.

Exactly.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Given most work during the week, I would hate missing two snow storms to get up north for a Rainer next weekend

Oh for some reason I thought you lived in Bolton Landing.  

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hardly ever look at those.

Same here.  

Only exception is when I’m heading out of state...and want to get a very general idea of what the basic weather idea might look like for the place I’m heading.   Other than that...they’re not to hot.

[HoarfrostHubb]

43 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

these pt and click forecasts are the worst thing that has happened to noaa....the more detailed nws forecasts were so much better

Yeah. I was puzzled by my p n c last night and tonight wrt Weds.  algorithms ftl there 

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, Blizz said:

I think whether the changes are good or bad for snowy NE winters are still up for debate. But yeah, not going to be the February we thought a week ago.

And it probably won’t be the February we thought a week from now.... models are struggling big time in the longer range....wouldn’t get to hung up on any one idea....good or bad.  

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh for some reason I thought you lived in Bolton Landing.  

Weekends when I can, good storm today and Wednesday, mountains will be set for weekend.  Hopefully that third storm trends colder

[CoastalWx]

Take a look at radar along the East Coast. So much for your strung out low eh?

[codfishsnowman]

it feels like snow out though, are we supposed to start as a little?

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

it feels like snow out though, are we supposed to start as a little?

Nope!

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Best SNE can hope for is 1-2 more snowfalls that get us near Climo amounts. Any big KU or weeks period of snow chances is gone and with all guidance locked in on a very warm Morch.. well .. 

I might not even get to that.

[Ginx snewx]

Know one thing with all this ice here and freezing ground rains gonna make a mess for a while