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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean second half of the favorable peroid, John.

I'm not as down on things as you, I guess...as much as it blows to waste a month plus of mid winter, I went into the season expecting that, as a modified Jan 2006 ensued. However I will stand by my assertion that this winter, too will bounce back, despite current guidance...just as I did in my belief that the lull would be more protracted than guidance while an epic early February was being flagged. 

We'll see-

Well... again that was commiseration, that writing ...  intended for dark humor woe ism fwiw, replete with hyperbole for that intent.

But, yeah... I get your drift but ... I'm not sure the winter will bounce back, not without a countermanding force to make sure it does - which is kind of obvious philosophically but you get my meaning. 

The MJO, I was wondering previously if it would trigger change. But the Euro cluster wants the current robust wave presentation to die in 8, as opposed to pushing through that wave spacing.. That's kind of new ..granted, but it changes the landscape of expectations in my mind. The forcing from that source weakens in time. Heh. Meanwhile, the GEFs just stall the wave in phase 7 which correlates to warmth for many over the Americas. Otherwise, the PNA flat lined...and the NAO remains so robustly positive, it gets hard to see how things would do much differently and in fact, the end frames of the 00z runs from the GGEM/EURO may have more conceptual basis for taking place given those circumstances.  The wave may not be in constructive interference with the types of patterns that would keep doses of XANAX down..

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just goes to show how back and forth the modeling is.  We saw decent trends yesterday at 12z, only to go backwards at 0z.  

 

Today same thing...modeling improving at 12z today again....holy smokes absolutely zero consistency this season.

The differences are minor and well within the margin of error we typically have at this range though. Seems perfectly reasonable to have subtle differences this far out.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The differences are minor and well within the margin of error we typically have at this range though. Seems perfectly reasonable to have subtle differences this far out.

perfect description!   ... it's also the type of storm where folks blame the models for atrocious performance when they may only be varying major synoptic features by small permutations...well within the expectation of technology.   I.e., unfairly impugning .. Conflating their own disappointment with modeling statistics ..prooobably isn't the best assessment tool ..hahaha

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The differences are minor and well within the margin of error we typically have at this range though. Seems perfectly reasonable to have subtle differences this far out.

Well your the MET...but I’m not impressed this year with any of the modeling...you guys always say that about the modeling until it frustrates you...then you say what I just did.  To each their own in that idea I guess.  

Theres been a lot of uncertainty and busts this season...and very close in.

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SnowHole413

SnowHole413

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

All models dry up LR, thermal gradient and baroclinicity go flat as the PV disturbance finally induces a SSW. After that we may get out first -AO -NAO sustained period. In my opinion those thinking winter is over will suddenly be surprised.

I agree. I’m hearing a lot of people already locking in a warm March, id hold that thought. I think the end of feb (22nd on) and first 3 weeks of March could be cold and snowy.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well your the MET...but I’m not impressed this year with any of the modeling...you guys always say that about the modeling until it frustrates you...then you say what I just did.  To each their own in that idea I guess.  

Theres been a lot of uncertainty and busts this season...and very close in.

I think you are referring to some of these near term movements. But when you have 84-96 hrs out, this is expected behavior. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's right in that lousy 72-96 hr window of nothingness..unless others have it on a pay site. Seems not far from GFS or GEM?

It sucks when the storm is at the point, You have to kind of draw a line between the lows to get a rough idea of where it tracked, Sucks.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The differences are minor and well within the margin of error we typically have at this range though. Seems perfectly reasonable to have subtle differences this far out.

At this lead time this could still be an I-95 snowstorm or a low tracking over ART. 

Anything past 72 hours this season is fair game for big changes.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Funny how I think powderfreak (or maybe it was someone else) was just talking about how we haven't had really any classic Niña SWFEs this winter which was kind of disappointing. They usually bring decent wintry wx to almost the whole forum except the south coast...but even sometimes down there can get a thump. 

Maybe this is the one finally. I hope it doesn't trend too far west though...that's my only fear I think. That it tries to ride into western NY or something which would leave the good WAA dynamics too far west so we don't get a thump. But I think so far the trough has had enough vorticity out to the east to keep some good dynamics and a sfc low redeveloping out there. Hopefully that continues. 

We have the ingredients in place though as long as the dynamics stay cooperative. We have good antecedent airmass, a good high location and good moisture feed. Just make sure the dynamics aren't shunted too far west with some uglier amped track. 

That thought has been crossing my mind, haha.  Right after that convo this started showing up ;).

We were talking about that lack of a good 0.5-1.0" QPF SWFE where the whole forum gets at least 3-5" then mix, while the all-snow spots go 6-10".

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