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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Hard to find a silver-lining for next 7 days for winter weather enthusiasts...Looks like the worst combination of teleconncections this season. Peak Climo, so ski resorts in NNE can still cash in on a small event, or two but the rest of us are likely SOL.

how about end of feb/early march anything long range we have any better chance?

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Hard to find a silver-lining for next 7 days for winter weather enthusiasts...Looks like the worst combination of teleconncections this season. Peak Climo, so ski resorts in NNE can still cash in on a small event, or two but the rest of us are likely SOL.

Unfortunately many of us ski the CNE resorts.  ;)

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

On th me Euro it sure does.  Not the GFS.  The GFS has had a much stronger SER Days 7-14 than the Euro has 

Not using op runs beyond day 7.

6z GEFS H5 matches up quite well with EPS around day 10; 6z GEPS as well. That time frame also appears to coincide with a another shift in the teleconnections. 

Current Risk imo is that the pattern shift is transient, and it will only be a 2-3 day window . We'll see...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Friday through Sunday doesn't exactly look spring-like, either. 

In fact, the general complexion of the synoptic story-line across those days gives the impression that some icy/mix and snow (light) N, to perhaps ice in NW CT- to interior S. NH could transpire and perhaps over the duration, too.  

A lot of if is going to come down to the precise PP perturbation/layout from Ohio to VT--..ME ... The boundary is pretty much stationary with some tendency to warm intrusion from the south, but... it's not obvious. The flow really is parallel to that baroclinic access, and whenever we find that you run risk of cool profiles wedging at lower levels and probably if not likely any said warmth delayed.  I wouldn't be swayed by the "as is" look at any given cycle.  I'm more interested in the general appeal of a boundary extending roughly from the western TV to the MA region, attempting to lift slowly N over a two to three day span...with QPF being painted during marginal low level thicknesses.  

Something to keep an eye on...

Other than that... yeah, Scott's right that the original favorable appeal for February set sail... In fact, that ship's been gone long enough that the harbor had returned to placid reflections under a tepid sky ...and may even be rejostled now by some newer rendition of affairs for this month. The GEFs ... completely different teleconnector spread at CDC for example. The PNA was going to be very positive with a neutral EPO... Now, the PNA is very negative at that source, with the EPO slightly negative but probably not because of a legit blocking ridge up there - more because the -PNA is pulling that domain space down a bit.  Which is code for probably a warm signal squirting own stream across the U.S.  ...The Euro?  Man, like 6 of the next 10 days the 850 mb 0C isotherm is abeam or N of our latitude ... It's odd, too, because the glanced appeal of charts still shows a deep gyre whirling about N James Bay, with some semblance of ridging in the 100 - 130 W longitudes.  Yet, the model insists spring has sprung in the 37th parallel.  interesting...  But, the culprit appears to be an abundance of higher heights over the SW Atlantic Basic/Caribbean ...extending through the Gulf, Old Mexico, and constructed right into the west coast ridge...all of which are in above normal geopotential heights.  That's in part the gradient being too steep for one..but, all we're doing is biding time for this vortex over JB to fill a bit and well.. maybe that's the La Nina early spring?  Hard to say but, that's getting way ahead.  As for these first two or so weeks of February... we were betrayed :) 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Overnight guidance really cooled things back down over NNE for this weekend...maybe the Euro medium range will be right after all? Figures it would right after it caved yesterday, lol.

We'll see...models are really struggling with the strong PV to the north and the SE ridge.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Overnight guidance really cooled things back down over NNE for this weekend...maybe the Euro medium range will be right after all? Figures it would right after it caved yesterday, lol.

We'll see...models are really struggling with the strong PV to the north and the SE ridge.

Can we get that to move more favorably for SNE for snow or ice this weekend?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can we get that to move more favorably for SNE for snow or ice this weekend?

Outside chance we could...but we may be just too far south. Best chance is the typical spots like N ORH county to GC for those in SNE. If we're playing devils advocate here, the best way would be to shove the boundary a bit east and get a wave along it for Sunday that passes to our SE. That's plausible, but still unlikely it gets far enough SE for us in SNE.

 

Like here is the EPS last night...you see the how the boundary at the surface is pointing right into S Maine...if we can get that pointing more towards James Nichols instead, then we could have a chance.

 

 

Feb7_00zEPS.gif

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