February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And I've probably averaged more over that 17 years.

I'll take the extra foot annually.

Once regression to the mean sets in 

[Baroclinic Zone]

35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have averaged 64.5 over the last 17 years so there is that, plus you apparently don't get wind and its flat. Nah I am good I will take my chances at missing out every once in a while.

I don't have that large a data set, but I do have a 60.3" average over the last 8(incl this year) 50% above average is remarkably good.

[ice1972]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What started out with so much promise now will be remembered by whether or not we have a strong or meh finish.   A strong finish redeems it. A weak one puts this in the forgettable category.

This x1000......I was saying this not 3 or 4 weeks ago and here we are......I really do hate this winter....too 3 worst in 14 seasons here.....strong finish or not.....I think it was the rainer onslaught that hasn’t ended btw......that’s not wintery that’s just bunk

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Once regression to the mean sets in 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ice1972 said:

This x1000......I was saying this not 3 or 4 weeks ago and here we are......I really do hate this winter....too 3 worst in 14 seasons here.....strong finish or not.....I think it was the rainer onslaught that hasn’t ended btw......that’s not wintery that’s just bunk

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He should move to BTV.

Yeah I mean your average is what it is, so if it's 40" or whatever, do you want to get there at ten 4" events?  And you know when it's nickles and dimes down in SE MA it's usually with mix or rain on either side... unless it's a true scraper.  Different from BTV which gets the 3-5" but all snow but more because they are further removed from the bulk of precip.

If I'm in TAN my goal to get to climo would be like 1 storm of 12" a month and call it a winter.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah I mean your average is what it is, so if it's 40" or whatever, do you want to get there at ten 4" events?  And you know when it's nickles and dimes down in SE MA it's usually with mix or rain on either side... unless it's a true scrapper.  Different from BTV which gets the 3-5" but all snow but more because they are further removed from the bulk of precip.

If I'm in TAN my goal to get to climo would be like 1 storm of 12" a month and call it a winter.

My preference is one 40" uber-bomb.

[weathafella]

Look at the SE ridge flex this weekend on the euro!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

If I moved to TAN w 40" annually my goal would be to Iron my favorite Reindeer sweater, GPS fastest route to Tobin bridge and see ya lata

 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

My preference is one 40" uber-bomb.

Yeah I agree.  Make the most excitement out of it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

This x1000......I was saying this not 3 or 4 weeks ago and here we are......I really do hate this winter....too 3 worst in 14 seasons here.....strong finish or not.....I think it was the rainer onslaught that hasn’t ended btw......that’s not wintery that’s just bunk

But you always throw up the towel early. So no credit there for ‘seeing’ the winter for what it is turning out to be.

[Typhoon Tip]

I've noticed over the past ...three weeks that the Euro has had a tendency to over do the southeast ridge in middle ranges.  It's had to doff hat a couple times to the flatter GFS appeals on more than one occasion. Much of the time ... going without notice because let's face it - how many on here want to actually observe the southeast ridge.  But, hey ...know thine enemy... 

In any case, the GFS is still has some vestigial suggestion in there that things could turn out icier in the interior Sat-Mon... 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting... so you're looking for more consistent small events to get to average? Nickle's and dimes but more frequent rather than a 20" bomb?

Not small events... more just consistent events. I don’t like going 1+ month without more than 2” of snowfall from an event.

my point is.. snow totals are deceiving sometimes.

if I get a 35” blizzard and nothing else, is it a good winter? Probably not... great storm.. not a great winter though.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah I agree.  Make the most excitement out of it.

By biggest problem is the cold and snowless.  That does nothing for me.  We did that for basically 2 weeks to end December and into the 1st week of January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

By biggest problem is the cold and snowless.  That does nothing for me.  We did that for basically 2 weeks to end December and into the 1st week of January.

And the arctic blasts between rainers...that Scott Baio pattern is the worst.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And the arctic blasts between rainers...that Scott Baio pattern is the worst.

I'd prefer rainers and "warmth" in Winter than cold and nothing. 

[ice1972]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But you always throw up the towel early. So no credit there for ‘seeing’ the winter for what it is turning out to be.

Ok true......my problem is I’m not patient enough to let climo take care of things especially when I can feel the end coming.....for me that feeling of crunch time starts around mid January and its because of precisely the way this year has evolved....I worry and I worry that’s it.....like the scene from Goodfellas when they bring Tommy into the empty room and whack him.....”and that’s that....there’s nothin we could do”.....that was this winter bleeding all over the floor after such promise.....fitting analogy

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not small events... more just consistent events. I don’t like going 1+ month without more than 2” of snowfall from an event.

my point is.. snow totals are deceiving sometimes.

if I get a 35” blizzard and nothing else, is it a good winter? Probably not... great storm.. not a great winter though.

 

Yeah I hear ya...I think most of us went a month without anything.  I think I remember a post from Tamarack saying 3.5" was the highest snow in January?  Same up here...had sleet and ZR events with 1-3" snows.  

It was a tough pattern.  But I know Ginxy and other areas had a good month totals wise too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'd prefer rainers and "warmth" in Winter than cold and nothing. 

Absolutely...that is the risk you take with this pattern.

"Lets have the supply of cold and take our chances"....but if the chances don't work out, then its the most miserable SOB of a pattern imaginable.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

By biggest problem is the cold and snowless.  That does nothing for me.  We did that for basically 2 weeks to end December and into the 1st week of January.

I'm with you on that.  I don't think many enjoy that.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah I hear ya...I think most of us went a month without anything.  I think I remember a post from Tamarack saying 3.5" was the highest snow in January?  Same up here...had sleet and ZR events with 1-3" snows.  

It was a tough pattern.  But I know Ginxy and other areas had a good month totals wise too.

Brett and I included in this. ~28" in 2 events.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely...that is the risk you take with this pattern.

"Lets have the supply of cold and take our chances"....but if the chances don't work out, then its the most miserable SOB of a pattern imaginable.

One of those systems in there we were like -20F and then rained within like 24 hours.  Those are always brutal.

At least if you'll put up with wearing ski masks to get groceries because it's so cold, you should be rewarded with snow, ha.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm with you on that.  I don't think many enjoy that.

Even if you get a huge dump, then the atmosphere slips into an arctic coma....like Feb 1978..at least you are preserving a deep mantle.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Well the Euro shows the boundary draped over us with a zonal flow, maybe we cash in.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And the arctic blasts between rainers...that Scott Baio pattern is the worst.

Yeah that is definitely the worst.

[Ginx snewx]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

interesting stats since I moved up here  Jan 01 2001 North Foster Coop 1121 inches  Reading Ma 1123, my own stats 1112

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

interesting stats since I moved up here  Jan 01 2001 North Foster Coop 1121 inches  Reading Ma 1123, my own stats 1112

Yea, that's close.

Regression will be cruel to you.

[tamarack]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I hear ya...I think most of us went a month without anything.  I think I remember a post from Tamarack saying 3.5" was the highest snow in January?  Same up here...had sleet and ZR events with 1-3" snows.  

It was a tough pattern.  But I know Ginxy and other areas had a good month totals wise too.

Actually, between Jan 5 (got 13" on the 4th) and Feb 6.  During that cherrypicked 33-day span I had 140% of avg precip, 57% of avg snowfall, and temps avg 26/6.  Not as bad as Jan 2014, but still a disappointing trifecta.  (And Feb-Mar 2014 brought 62"; a repeat would be much appreciated.)

Unlike B-C, I prefer dry cold in winter to warm rain.  Both my location and vocation play into that opinion.  And though perhaps no one other than Jeb grooves on vodka cold, I think most here are fascinated by extremes.  That 2-week run of cold that brought in the new year is unmatched by anything I've experienced since moving from Fort Kent, and only Jan 2004 is even close - about 3° less cold for its coldest 2-week stretch.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that's close.

Regression will be cruel to you.

what 7 years and counting now since you made that comment in Dec 10 right before 11 smacked us around, please continue, good juju for me

[Damage In Tolland]

When it rains to Maine’s in the winter, this is what happens to the board