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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have seen your area pick up 35 in a heartbeat in this pattern. Riding the gradient, will it happen probably not,  has it happened, countless times. I would feel pretty damn good if I was in your shoes right now 

 At this point it is quite possible that you make climo and he doesn't but that could happen while he still has a 20" week at some point  so climo is kind of a weird analogy  but it's our only reference point.

 I am sure there are many people who wouldn't mind being below their season average on the year if they got two 20" storms instead.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM has some front end snow, but seems like an ice look from nrn ORH, Berks, to srn VT and NH. 

NAM would be pretty classic SWFE. Good burst of advisory snow on the front with big CAD over the interior leading to prob a lot of icing. 

Theres a pretty good high north of CAR as the system comes in so we will have to watch. If that high position does not change, then frequently we will see models tick colder as we get closer to go-time. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

NAM would be pretty classic SWFE. Good burst of advisory snow on the front with big CAD over the interior leading to prob a lot of icing. 

Theres a pretty good high north of CAR as the system comes in so we will have to watch. If that high position does not change, then frequently we will see models tick colder as we get closer to go-time. 

Yeah I find it hard to believe the low center jams into the interior with something like that. Even gives BOS like 3" or so. Definitely wintry verbatim north of pike.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree. I like Wednesday...not a blockbuster, but could herald the start of the second half.

I think we can agree on that one model run  haha..

00z's across the board came in a tick warmer everywhere for that event. 'Not any more or less sold on how that will evolve, though... It's actually a perfect run to exemplify/why Will and I surmised yesterday, one should be vigil of the 'unmanned firehose' pattern.  Ever so subtle deviations at the anchored end, being essentially whatever comes through ~ 130 W... tends to move systems, in whole, more readily N or S back here in the east...and with the pancaked nature of flow... the gradients are very steep over short distances, and 50 miles means cold rain vs a foot of blue...etc etc. 

I also think "...the second half" has already been heralded as a big huge poke in the butt bust.  After the fact?  ...we are in fact three weeks into the 2nd half by scientific meter ..which agreed, that's just an arbitrary distinction along the linearity of time...and the climate for any given season will do what it wants to do, regardless.. However, for brevity and not having an other metric to effectively categorize the way things are going? The 2nd half is so far a big huge turd mistaken for an apple.

So many guidance sources had, also for lack of better words, quite elegantly deceived with a big pretty blue deep vortex on extended this and that ... resting it on top of a GW southern height berm ...Most chose a path of excitability before reason when seeing that monster.  It's not just the lay-user of this material either... I've heard hopes and promises from talented Mets in the field so none of this is a knock on anyone.  Sometimes you get the bear, ...sometimes, the bear gets you. 

Right now the tele's look like schit of the first order stench..  The PNA utterly betrayed like 10 days worth of suggestive favorable modality ...which could be proven false; if that's an edge for one to hold out hope. I'm inclined to think that's choosing delusion over despair, given to this unmistakable tenor so for this season to reduce events at least excuse ... one that I think actually makes a good deal of sense in retrospect, as the flow has been again ... for the third year in a row, a compression madness.  It's a sinister mitigation too... because there are storms there, in time... varying frequencies and intensities depending on x-y-z tint to the pattern et al.. But over the course of that on-going model/enthusiast/co-dependent bi-polar life (joke), it is concealing that perhaps the top 1/3rd of system mechanics are routinely gobbled up and damped out by the ferocity of the overbearing compression.

In any case, ... we may have a couple cycles where the firehose sends this mid week deal back west... then a couple where it comes back colder before we settle on whatever in this Caligulan winter next introduces us to how it screws us too...   enjoy your winter.

End commiseration - 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I mean second half of the favorable peroid, John.

I'm not as down on things as you, I guess...as much as it blows to waste a month plus of mid winter, I went into the season expecting that, as a modified Jan 2006 ensued. However I will stand by my assertion that this winter, too will bounce back, despite current guidance...just as I did in my belief that the lull would be more protracted than guidance while an epic early February was being flagged. 

We'll see-

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