February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Clearly going to be another sheared out wave/cold frontal look. Still thinking most of SNE will be too warm for this

The UL height anomalies along the Eastern CONUS are increasing run to run on the GFS. The 18z GFS continued this trend. That wasn’t a colder run; the 18z was warmer than 12z at the surface, 850 and H5.

If this shears out or trends weaker (which it probably will) you would think it would stay markedly more frozen than tomorrow's event because the high positioning and air mass in place proceeding it are better.  Its still not ideal positioning of the high but its much better than tomorrow that you are not cranking south flow in up and down the East Coast before it.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah definitely.  The GFS is the driest of the 3 main globals with the ECMWF and GGEM significantly wetter, despite different tracks.

The one thing is it looks to be mostly warm air advection initiated.  You could tell the GFS would be lighter and weaker as the H85 jet was significantly less and much later to develop, straight down into the southern Plains and southeast region.  No cold conveyor belt, very SWFE style...I could see this limiting the upward potential of this to 10" or so.  Which no one here would turn down but strikes me as one of those more uniform events in the snow zone.  Not as much banding as stratiform precip.

That is usually the ceiling on a SWFE.

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If this shears out or trends weaker (which it probably will) you would think it would stay markedly more frozen than tomorrow's event because the high positioning and air mass in place proceeding it are better.  Its still not ideal positioning of the high but its much better than tomorrow that you are not cranking south flow in up and down the East Coast before it.

We had almost the same hp on guidance for tomorrow’s event at day 4–it’s gone now, as the WAR trended stronger over time. I think a similar trend will happen this time....

[CoastalWx]

I’m not sure why we are forming some sort of linear relationship to low pressure mslp and the amount of moisture. I’ve seen sh*t lows deliver a ton of moisture thanks to isentropic lift. That depends more on the mid and upper levl flow. Whn you have a low from the Deep South, I’m usually not worried about its Mslp.

[Typhoon Tip]

Couple of those in 1978 one of which dropped well over a foot over a large area off a 1001 mb bag of Gulf pwat

[Typhoon Tip]

It may not look like an idealized art on that run but particulars with that look would create a very proficient snow wall/IB ... that HP is quintessentially oriented for incurring WAA/isentrope event

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

It already is sheared out. 1008 mb. Weak wave riding along a CF. That’s it. HP in eastern Canada is tenuous as is, and will not be in the picture at all by go time if the WAR builds the way I expect it to. 

Wed?

[25thamendmentfan]

4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where does this God live? 

Mossup? Summer home in weekapaug? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd plan on at least some snow Wednesday...may be significant....especially Boston points north and west.....and I 84 north and west.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/rainy-monday-snow-possible-wednesday.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It may not look like an idealized art on that run but particulars with that look would create a very proficient snow wall/IB ... that HP is quintessentially oriented for incurring WAA/isentrope event

Agree. I like Wednesday...not a blockbuster, but could herald the start of the second half.

[DavisStraight]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd plan on at least some snow Wednesday...may be significant.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/rainy-monday-snow-possible-wednesday.html

Sounds like you're feeling it for weds Ray

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Sounds like you're feeling it for weds Ray

As in something respectable, yes...could be the biggest since 1/4 for spots like my locale...not saying a ton.

[SnowGoose69]

I don't have 500mb yet but the UKIE at 72 looks pretty darn flat with the precip over the TN valley area compared to the GFS and CMC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Doug Simonian had a nice piece on a potential  SSW....I buy it, and expect it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Really like where we are headed...just takes time.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 25thamendmentfan said:

Mossup? Summer home in weekapaug? 

Obsessed 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Obsessed 

 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, 25thamendmentfan said:

Mossup? Summer home in weekapaug? 

Fyi it's Moosup, definitely not God's country, on the other hand Weekapug is

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree. I like Wednesday...not a blockbuster, but could herald the start of the second half.

Fast and furious 10 days then I fear thermal gradients are gone,  gulf closes. Thinking seasonable and dry 13th through 18th. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fast and furious 10 days then I fear thermal gradients are gone,  gulf closes. Thinking seasonable and dry 13th through 18th. 

Good time for that lol

[CoastalWx]

Bit of a reverse in trends last night for Wednesday. 

[CoastalWx]

Shades were opening, but back to closing again. Should be good for the mtns though.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Shades were opening, but back to closing again. Should be good for the mtns though.

Rays feeling it 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Rays feeling it 

They'll be some front end snow, but wasn't exactly the trend I was hoping to see from 00z and 06z. NNE special.

[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not sure why we are forming some sort of linear relationship to low pressure mslp and the amount of moisture. I’ve seen sh*t lows deliver a ton of moisture thanks to isentropic lift. That depends more on the mid and upper levl flow. Whn you have a low from the Deep South, I’m usually not worried about its Mslp.

I was thinking a stronger system would have increased jet dynamics and better low level conveyors... sort of like stronger low, stronger H7-H85 winds leading to increased lift/moisture?  I was noticing it yesterday on the runs...drier runs had lower H85 winds and the wetter runs were stronger S/SW flow at that level.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I was thinking a stronger system would have increased jet dynamics and better low level conveyors... sort of like stronger low, stronger H7-H85 winds leading to increased lift/moisture?  I was noticing it yesterday on the runs...drier runs had lower H85 winds and the wetter runs were stronger S/SW flow at that level.

I mean there is some of that, but I've seen a WF draped to our south with these POS waves running along it dump 1-2" of QPF before. If you have a nice high to the north and deep layer WAA...you don't need 70kts at 850 ramming into the region. Just good ole fashioned isentropic lift, aided by high pressure forming a nice frontal slope.  My comments were more for the pope saying that it's only a 1008 mb low. The pressure is all relative to the ambient environmental pressure. It's silly to say "well it's only 1008mb.." as if that matters. 

[powderfreak]

Man the Euro EPS are looking real good this morning for all the mountains... that's a solid 5 day period between this evening's snow and then Wednesday. 

Out of the 50 individual members there isn't a lot of spread, much less than yesterday.  They seem pretty dialed in but we know how that's gone this winter with performance in the last 84 hours.  Just a widespread 1-1.5" QPF gain for the mountains as frozen over the next 4-5 days.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean there is some of that, but I've seen a WF draped to our south with these POS waves running along it dump 1-2" of QPF before. If you have a nice high to the north and deep layer WAA...you don't need 70kts at 850 ramming into the region. Just good ole fashioned isentropic lift, aided by high pressure forming a nice frontal slope.  My comments were more for the pope saying that it's only a 1008 mb low. The pressure is all relative to the ambient environmental pressure. It's silly to say "well it's only 1008mb.." as if that matters. 

Ah that makes sense, thanks. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Man the Euro EPS are looking real good this morning for all the mountains... that's a solid 5 day period between this evening's snow and then Wednesday. 

Out of the 50 individual members there isn't a lot of spread, much less than yesterday.  They seem pretty dialed in but we know how that's gone this winter with performance in the last 84 hours.  Just a widespread 1-1.5" QPF gain for the mountains as frozen over the next 4-5 days.

The S VT areas are not looking great tonight so need to cash in on Wed. 

[moneypitmike]

It looks like Wednesday's start has been pushed back a few hours as well.