February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The NAM is rain pretty far N on Sunday night.  U-G-L-Y.

Wednesday looking a little more encouraging though! 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The NAM is rain pretty far N on Sunday night.  U-G-L-Y.

Wednesday looking a little more encouraging though! 

CMC or bust, Chris.

[CoastalWx]

PF, can you post a few shots of the EPS members?

[ORH_wxman]

Sunday/Monday is a disorganized piece of garbage. Too bad because it briefly looked okay earlier in the week. But we never trended the high to hold back to the west more...that does two things, first it obviously creates a warmer solution and second, it make the whole thing less organized. A high holding it's ground more increases the frontogenesis so you get a much more defined qpf shield. 

Theres still a half decent firehouse of moisture from the south so NNE (esp mountains) should get a nice shot of snow. 

But Wednesday looks like the more organized of the two systems. That one seemed to trend better last night. Hopefully we can keep that going just a tick further and we will have a good ole fashioned SWFE that throws a nice chunk of QPF into the pack. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sunday/Monday is a disorganized piece of garbage. Too bad because it briefly looked okay earlier in the week. But we never trended the high to hold back to the west more...that does two things, first it obviously creates a warmer solution and second, it make the whole thing less organized. A high holding it's ground more increases the frontogenesis so you get a much more defined qpf shield. 

Theres still a half decent firehouse of moisture from the south so NNE (esp mountains) should get a nice shot of snow. 

But Wednesday looks like the more organized of the two systems. That one seemed to trend better last night. Hopefully we can keep that going just a tick further and we will have a good ole fashioned SWFE that throws a nice chunk of QPF into the pack. 

You really think the pack survives tomorrow/ night?

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You really think the pack survives tomorrow/ night?

Maybe. Depends how warm you get. You'll prob lose most of it if you spike to 40-42F for hours with rain. If you can hold at 36-37 then you prob keep it. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Close to turning off the lights on a sustained period. We practically nosedived after the mr bombastic death cyclone with no return. There still will be chances obv but a deep second half winter is unlikely. PNA may spike late month so that should help. I guess we try to maximize our chances when they occur, to pad the numbers. 

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Close to turning off the lights on a sustained period. We practically nosedived after the mr bombastic death cyclone with no return. There still will be chances obv but a deep second half winter is unlikely. PNA may spike late month so that should help. I guess we try to maximize our chances when they occur, to pad the numbers. 

Don’t lose hope yet...it may not be as bad as you think.

i never bought into the extreme cold coming back again anyway like we had earlier in late December and early Jan.  

Even if we get normal climo temps and precip...we’ll be ok(nothing fabulous), but decent is fine at this time of the year.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t lose hope yet...it may not be as bad as you think.

i never bought into the extreme cold coming back again anyway like we had earlier in late December and early Jan.  

Even if we get normal climo temps and precip...we’ll be ok(nothing fabulous), but decent is fine at this time of the year.  

Has nothing to do with hope. The great Feb doesnt look so great anymore, thats the reality of it. We could sneak something mid month but if not its down to the last two weeks. Who knows what March brings but a sustained month it is usually not. Obv March 17 was pretty wintery but the numbers say thats an anomoly last 10-15yrs.  It is what it is, i call it like I see it. 

[jbenedet]

Tomorrow looks like all day snows at the major ski locales of the Northern Greens and Whites. Should be 6-12” of powdah. Good for them. Wish I was going to be up there tomorrow...

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Has nothing to do with hope. The great Feb doesnt look so great anymore, thats the reality of it. We could sneak something mid month but if not its down to the last two weeks. Who knows what March brings but a sustained month it is usually not. Obv March 17 was pretty wintery but the numbers say thats an anomoly last 10-15yrs.  It is what it is, i call it like I see it. 

First half of Feb was always dicey, regardless of guidance....I'm as frustrated as anyone, but hang in there. I'm still hopefull for late season.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

PF, can you post a few shots of the EPS members?

I mean this is just 4 out of the first 10 members that would bring significant winter precip to SNE with the 32F line hugging the coast.  There are a lot of the 50 members that have at least a decent thump of sub-freezing moisture.  I bet at least a third of the EPS members would bring considerable winter weather to SNE.

I can't post all of them obviously but there are a lot of the individuals that would get a lot more folks in this forum excited... very SWFE style with a strong WAA thump. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Even though I believe the NAO is over-used in the general ambit of the Meteorology field, as well, lesser understood as to why it is even factorable therein (making it particularly egregious listening to people's "recording service" on the matter...) ... I will risk hypocrisy in making the following surmise..  I think what the present index implies may not be a good thing for 'cold type' storm enthusiasts.

Last night's runs were pretty fantastically positive - positive in itself is not as bad as some may think.  But in this case, the 7 to 10 day journey soaring it to ~ + 2 standard deviations is being coupled with only a modest +PNA (more on that little annoyance in a moment...);  that's not "instructing" the escape latitudes of the westerlies over eastern North America into a favorable orientation. 

We could get into an east vs west based positive NAO ... but, really what the GEFs (and as far as I can tell..the Euro camp) are up to now, is creating a such a ginormous PV spanning so much of the NAO domain, there really is no west or east bias about it... It's just flat out in a contiguous pig positive state of affairs. ... Enters conservation of mass: the balancing geopotential expression has a western Atlantic huge-mangous positive region so massive summer enthusiasts would abash at the riches. 

This whole predicament is so anomalously encompassing spatially, that it really appears to be dictating the circulation idiosyncrasies clear back to the MV ...clear to western Europe.

So, .. it could change.  The Pacific is still capable of vetoing matters.. but, the PNA index mentioned abouve... gee, it has just stabbed said storm enthusiasts right in the back.  At least over at CPC that is so... I have been monitoring closely in recent weeks, and out of nowhere ...trend crumbles and the PNA has pulled the plug on the previous 10 day positive (was slated to be as much at +2 SD at that...) index that was supposed to ear-mark the first 15 days of the month. Now according to that agency, it is barely above neutral.  That really more so implies the Pac is trying to go to sleep.. You can actually see this rather well over at PSU E-wall's D8-10 mean from the 00z runs, and with such a powerful configuration back east ...that is transitively (probably) related to why we are not getting better polar high production and migration to help these matters over eastern/SE Canada. I think it's also causing southern waves to get mooshed and disintegrated in the rising heights tendencies in the SE... All these aspects play into PWAT transport systems with weak PP and lead side SW components warming the lower critical thickness layers out of reach.
 

The upshot in all this is that ... it could be true and you could still 'thread the needle' ... just saying that the entirety of all is a detriment to the collective desire for the time being.

[EastonSN+]

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t lose hope yet...it may not be as bad as you think.

i never bought into the extreme cold coming back again anyway like we had earlier in late December and early Jan.  

Even if we get normal climo temps and precip...we’ll be ok(nothing fabulous), but decent is fine at this time of the year.  

Problem is the overnight AO and MJO outlooks below.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First half of Feb was always dicey, regardless of guidance....I'm as frustrated as anyone, but hang in there. I'm still hopefull for late season.

Of course, and theres March too..it’s fine, we just didnt hit the ground running. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

56 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Tomorrow looks like all day snows at the major ski locales of the Northern Greens and Whites. Should be 6-12” of powdah. Good for them. Wish I was going to be up there tomorrow...

What are your thoughts for the southern greens? It’s been a ruff season. Either brutal cold or warm rain to ice. Really hoping the next two events produce for next weekend 

[moneypitmike]

I hate to say it......winter's done.  Maybe something on Wednesday but other than that, let's get ready for the black flies.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

What are your thoughts for the southern greens? It’s been a ruff season. Either brutal cold or warm rain to ice. Really hoping the next two events produce for next weekend 

They should do well. Might flip for a time tomorrow night but hopefully not. Even if they do hopefully they'll still get a good net gain. They look to be in a good spot for Wednesday. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They should do well. Might flip for a time tomorrow night but hopefully not. Even if they do hopefully they'll still get a good net gain. They look to be in a good spot for Wednesday. 

Thanks, I appreciate it. There have been several times this winter I though elevation would help there but watched it rain. Most notable last weekend. It was 35 with rain at my house at 1600’ and I kept thinking it must be snow above 3000’ and obviously it wasn’t. So what I’m worried about is a 925 warm push. Hopefully it works out for everyone going to beast as well. Pretty close to the southern greens.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Thanks, I appreciate it. There have been several times this winter I though elevation would help there but watched it rain. Most notable last weekend. It was 35 with rain at my house at 1600’ and I kept thinking it must be snow above 3000’ and obviously it wasn’t. So what I’m worried about is a 925 warm push. Hopefully it works out for everyone going to beast as well. Pretty close to the southern greens.

Yeah beast may rain for a while tomorrow night but I think Wednesday could be great there. So hopefully it fixes any ugliness. 

[jbenedet]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Thanks, I appreciate it. There have been several times this winter I though elevation would help there but watched it rain. Most notable last weekend. It was 35 with rain at my house at 1600’ and I kept thinking it must be snow above 3000’ and obviously it wasn’t. So what I’m worried about is a 925 warm push. Hopefully it works out for everyone going to beast as well. Pretty close to the southern greens.

Yea I agree with Will. Terrain will also help mitigate the modest low level WAA. Both waves are quite weak, and the in-situ cold looks sufficient for both events. Very Cold 850’s help as well. Combination of factors looks favorable. I think it’s mainly snow for both events.

[Cold Miser]

49 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course, and theres March too..it’s fine, we just didnt hit the ground running. 

I looked ahead to November and there seem to be a few chances late month.

27 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I hate to say it......winter's done.  Maybe something on Wednesday but other than that, let's get ready for the black flies.

lol.  If that isn't giving up the ship then I don't know what else is.

When I start seeing mostly New Hampshire and Vermont folks hanging on to hope, but not people below the state lines then I know that the end is near.

 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Has nothing to do with hope. The great Feb doesnt look so great anymore, thats the reality of it. We could sneak something mid month but if not its down to the last two weeks. Who knows what March brings but a sustained month it is usually not. Obv March 17 was pretty wintery but the numbers say thats an anomoly last 10-15yrs.  It is what it is, i call it like I see it. 

And I call it like I see em too.  I don’t think modeling is seeing things clearly...very volatile from run to run.  Uncertainty is higher than average presently imo. 

 

Love all the melts, and winters done posts... on Feb 3rd.  

MPM going off the edge...now that’s a surprise lol. 

 

 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You really think the pack survives tomorrow/ night?

Hope much do you have otg?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

Hope much do you have otg?

5”. Was paste but turned into powder 

[CoastalWx]

GFS is colder again. Pretty wintry event inland and north of pike.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian is an all out snow storm.

[CoastalWx]

Yes please.

[Typhoon Tip]

which one?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

which one?

Wednesday.