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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe in my area.   Still def possible to gain 30” before the end.   Clock is ticking though.    

This pattern is not really enjoyable regarding tracking and model watching. Waves not as fun as storms

That shouldn't be hard at all with Feb/Mar/Apr on tap. 

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

A -NAO would help relax the flow too...we've been in these hyper-gradient flows for several winters. It does relax at times, but it would be even better if we had some -NAO episodes. It allows for things to come together a bit easier with a slower flow and also gives a little bit of wiggle room. (I.E., if a storm has a leftward track by 50 miles down in the TN Valley, it might only translate to a 10 mile shift by the time it gets to S of LI with a -NAO forcing it into a certain zone....whereas in a zero blocking +NAO regime with no transient features, it would prob be 50 miles northwest or even worse by the time it got to us...like an unmanned firehose)

 

At any rate, we're seeing the consequences of that this week...PAC isn't quite ideal....it isn't terrible, but we need it better with the unmanned firehose effect...this thing gets just slightly too amplified down in the arklatex region and all of the sudden its riding into ALB.

 

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan has 30’s for highs the next 10 days after tomorrow.. and only 1 chance of snow next weekend,. That’s hard to do 

It’s not a torch pattern( Although euro tried Wednesday). But, one that is sort of frustrating. Maybe we catch a break next weekend.

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alex

alex

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z American guidance still showing some decent snow in parts of the region.

Flip these maps around from NW to SE and the storm threads are firing.  Will be fun talking between J.Spin, Alex, and Gene over the next week, ha.

 

Yu0dYxT.png

mZf14KH.png

I'm ready to talk anytime. :) 

Jokes aside, crazy gradient between say Twin Mountain and Whitefield. Not sure if it's elevation driven or shadowing? While Whitefield certainly tends to get less snow, these maps seem to overestimate the shadowing usually...

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, alex said:

I'm ready to talk anytime. :) 

Jokes aside, crazy gradient between say Twin Mountain and Whitefield. Not sure if it's elevation driven or shadowing? While Whitefield certainly tends to get less snow, these maps seem to overestimate the shadowing usually...

Whitefield is a notorious snow hole isn’t it? Shadowed big time by the Whites right?0

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, alex said:

I'm ready to talk anytime. :) 

Jokes aside, crazy gradient between say Twin Mountain and Whitefield. Not sure if it's elevation driven or shadowing? While Whitefield certainly tends to get less snow, these maps seem to overestimate the shadowing usually...

Oh I think they definitely do (over-estimate the orographics).  The increased resolution in the models has done that, though I think the GFS is one of the worst offenders.  Sure there's a precip gradient among the mountains and topography but the GFS takes it to a weird level.  Like no matter what, even if the forcing is mid-level frontogenic stuff, it'll make it look like it's an upslope event with a huge gradient over a very small area.

The Euro is the best with regards to that stuff IMO.  It knows terrain and uses it smartly...not just ALWAYS focusing on high terrain getting 50% more than nearby.

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alex

alex

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Whitefield is a notorious snow hole isn’t it? Shadowed big time by the Whites right?0

It is to some extent but purely from empirical observations, it's not that bad. They don't get much upslope so you'll see a big difference between here and there in upslope patterns, but it's not so dramatic in storms. Sure, maybe 5" instead of 7", but unless you're out there with a ruler, you won't really notice it. And I just drive by it, I don't really spend much time there. :)

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

how bad is stowe now doing w.r.t seasonal norms at the hill.

Seems last few weeks blew up there relativity speaking 

We are running about 40" below last year I think which was an epic winter (highest total in 20 years)....I'd put us pretty close to average.  142" at High Road Stake (3,000ft) half way through the winter.  We had a really good December, better than last year. Then January only brought 36" (12" of that fell in like 8 hours too early in the month), now we've started Feb off with 7".  

I know J.Spin and I have discussed it at length but January just isn't a good snow month up here for whatever reason, at least not in a running 10 year mean.  

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alex

alex

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh I think they definitely do.  The increased resolution in the models has done that, though I think the GFS is one of the worst offenders.  Sure there's a precip gradient among the mountains and topography but the GFS takes it to a weird level.  Like no matter what, even if the forcing is mid-level frontogenic stuff, it'll make it look like it's an upslope event with a huge gradient over a very small area.

Fully agree - and exactly the point I was making in my other post. In upslope gradients can be crazy - I've seen 3" at my house and literally nothing on the other side of the small hill before you get to my house, not even a mile away. THAT is a gradient :)

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

18z American guidance still showing some decent snow in parts of the region.

Flip these maps around from NW to SE and the storm threads are firing.  Will be fun talking between J.Spin, Alex, and Gene over the next week, ha.

 

Yu0dYxT.png

mZf14KH.png

Boy that 2nd one is torchy. You may need to stand on the top of the picnic tables at 4 k to catch flakes with your tongue 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

You think it’s bad here?  Try The West.  Looking at the front range snow which to me appears normal for what I see when I’ve been there in mid autumn.

Still snow imby.  As soon as the Lyft got above Jamaica Pond it went from bare ground and by the time you get to Goddard basically full cover.  Should be gone soon though.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Wasn't last February about as warm as it gets? Seemed to work out fine. Not prepared to write the rest of this one off yet, and I'm about the only one in NE with brown ground right now, my namesake on the outer Cape perhaps excepted.

Most of CTRV in CT has nothing OTG. My office in Farmington is bare . HFD has nothing . That’s why I was hoping Ginx or someone posted Modis today. Would have been a great shot 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You think it’s bad here?  Try The West.  Looking at the front range snow which to me appears normal for what I see when I’ve been there in mid autumn.

Still snow imby.  As soon as the Lyft got above Jamaica Pond it went from bare ground and by the time you get to Goddard basically full cover.  Should be gone soon though.

I don't think it's bad "here" in fact it's beautiful

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