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SnowGolfBro

Saturday December 30 Snow Obs and Disco

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Happens up here too. Before someone shoots me I'm not complaining. Really ill take it every time. But often those big numbers you see here are because of 25-1 ratios. It's very dry fluff. And it sublimates and it melts fast the minute any sun hits it. That's why I prefer a wet snow. Couple years ago I got 6" of wet snow and it lasted 10 days otg.  This December I had 5.5" of dry fluff and it was gone in a snap the minute the sun came out even with relatively cold temps. 

LOL Hoffman never changes. Now the snow is too fluffy up there on the ridge. 

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL Hoffman never changes. Now the snow is too fluffy up there on the ridge. 

Classy problem to have.  

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL Hoffman never changes. Now the snow is too fluffy up there on the ridge. 

It was also kinda lumpy last time too. I like it when it's got that perfect smoothness too it. 

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42 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

All we have gong for us is ratios and prayers.  The rest looks less than good but better than nothing

like bob has said, there's a little more moisture with this storm than other clippers, so maybe the mountains won't act like a total sponge which they have a tendency to do here when there's less than adequate energy/lift.  i'm hoping that's the case at least.

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Hrrr looks impressive with the precip field and southern expansion of the precip. Depending on how you feel about the hrrr's forecast ability, I guess that could be good or bad. Lol 

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Latest HRRR targets NOVA and Md. Gives me .2 QPF.  I think someone can steal a couple of inches or maybe a little bit more out of this one. I hope that someone is me. I need the emotional boost after getting nothing but screwed so far his year :)

qpf_acc.us_ma.png

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Latest HRRR targets NOVA and Md. Gives me .2 QPF.  I think someone can steal a couple of inches or maybe a little bit more out of this one. I hope that someone is me. I need the emotional boost after getting nothing but screwed so far his year :)

qpf_acc.us_ma.png

Good luck.  At least it's the first model that I can remember seeing this season that didn't put us in the precip minimum.  I'm sure it will end up wrong.

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Hrrr is quite a bit farther south than the nam 3k with its precip field. Curious to see if the nam bros come in with higher qpf. Sref doesn't seem to support the hrrr. 

 

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I feel weirdly optimistic about this. Just think the dynamics and fluff factor will help us out. Probably I’m just weenieing out.

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1 minute ago, Negnao said:

Hrrr is quite a bit farther south than the nam 3k with its precip field. Curious to see if the nam bros come in with higher qpf. Sref doesn't seem to support the hrrr. 

 

Where is the actual vort..or lack of a vort...pass?  SW VA?  It’s hard to see it..that seems like a good spot

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I feel weirdly optimistic about this. Just think the dynamics and fluff factor will help us out. Probably I’m just weenieing out.

Being in Central MD certainly a better spot for the little we get tomorrow versus being In Fredericksburg. But I’ll be optimistic too and hope for a dusting. 

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23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Good luck.  At least it's the first model that I can remember seeing this season that didn't put us in the precip minimum.  I'm sure it will end up wrong.

I think any precip will get sucked up as usual.  And I will be counting flakes again. I’ve no faith in what the models are spitting out.  Been there done that.  

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25 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Where is the actual vort..or lack of a vort...pass?  SW VA?  It’s hard to see it..that seems like a good spot

Low is actually north of us. As other have mentioned, it's not a typical clipper system where it goes right over us or just to the south of us for best snows. 

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8 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Low is actually north of us. As other have mentioned, it's not a typical clipper system where it goes right over us or just to the south of us for best snows. 

I don't think that's true.  There is a low north but I think this bit of energy that broke off from the PAcNW system is passing south of us or we wouldn't get a thing.  I could be wrong of course.

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22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

No I don't suffer from those. Go look 

I will say I do feel as though the radar is definitely not on the underwhelming side. Of course we are well aware the mountains have quite the say down the line, however I’m cautiously optimistic. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm perfectly good with a blend of the Nams and the current HRRR right now.... Nice track of "the blob" and most would get close to or more than 1". Boom. 

Agreed, pending the Hrrr not playing it’s usual tricks, upstream looks solid, even some growing returns out in the shield. Had a chance to check any reports in IA/elsewhere? 

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