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Saturday December 30 Snow Obs and Disco

SnowGolfBro

By SnowGolfBro,
in Mid Atlantic

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

3-5" across Iowa today and into Illinois:

http://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=dmx

I saw the Des Moines disco yesterday and they thought some mini banding could setup, problem is that without any kind of gulf moisture or much Atlantic influence we need to rely on the strength and timing of the wave. Clippers can be great but I have some doubts about this one towards the city but I hope I’m wrong 

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted

NWS Pitt issued WWA for the mountains through Sunday AM: 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
353 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017

MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ510>514-300500-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0023.171230T0000Z-171231T1200Z/
Garrett-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette Ridges-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland MD,
Grantsville, Ligonier, Donegal, Champion, Ohiopyle, Coopers Rock,
Kingwood, Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton,
Parsons, Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas,
and Canaan Valley
353 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with localized
  amounts up to 9 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Pennsylvania, western Maryland
  and northern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times.
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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

it's times like this, as well as every-single day during the summer, I'm reminded that I turned down a job offer and the opportunity to live in Deep Creek 14 months ago.  Sigh.

Unless your job is tied to tourism (lake or Wisp or rental homes) or general contracting I would think it’s hard to find jobs here. Last summer was our first summer having the house and I couldn’t believe how pleasant the temperatures were - upper 70s during the day and upper 50s at night. A few occasional days in the low 80s (lol). 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, nj2va said:

NWS forecast upped totals in the region especially in FDK county.  

44D78627-2B51-44B1-A331-2E28FE6CA7C3.png

Oddly lwx always does better at accounting for the northern MD souther PA ridges then CTP. For whatever reason they rarely even have any hint of them in their snow forecast and it leads to a lack of zones matching up along the mason dixon line. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oddly lwx always does better at accounting for the northern MD souther PA ridges then CTP. For whatever reason they rarely even have any hint of them in their snow forecast and it leads to a lack of zones matching up along the mason dixon line. 

That's the classic CTP vs everyone else.  They are always slow to update and quick to cancel.

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oddly lwx always does better at accounting for the northern MD souther PA ridges then CTP. For whatever reason they rarely even have any hint of them in their snow forecast and it leads to a lack of zones matching up along the mason dixon line. 

Yeah, makes for an interesting snowfall map when looking at it combined like this. It seems like LWX is one of the best NWS offices in the mid atl.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I feel weirdly optimistic about this. Just think the dynamics and fluff factor will help us out. Probably I’m just weenieing out.

Agree, but I think there will be a cutoff across our area and south of that won't be happy. But where the decent band sets up this will produce imo. Somewhere will get a 2-3" band.  

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree, but I think there will be a cutoff across our area and south of that won't be happy. But where the decent band sets up this will produce imo. Somewhere will get a 2-3" band.  

That cutoff seems prevalent on the Stafford county north border north of EZF.  But who knows

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Okay. Let’s get after it at this point (“getting after” this type of event that is)....24 hours out.  Can somebody give me 

1) the time of day tomorrow it starts 

2) accumulation “basically” for the area 

Well where are you located?  Makes a big difference in this big subforum.  0-6 inches.  1 am to noon tomorrow.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Okay. Let’s get after it at this point (“getting after” this type of event that is)....24 hours out.  Can somebody give me 

1) the time of day tomorrow it starts 

2) accumulation “basically” for the area 

Best guess starting time around 2-4 am west to east across the area.  Ends around 8-9am. A dusting across the southern portion, coating to 1" north of Fredericksburg to DC. 1-3" across MD. My first last and only call. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Fairfax/Sterling/Leesburg? I thought it was more of a noon-2 pm gig. No?

Nope.  PSU outlined it.  1-1.5 for the areas you mentioned.  It's dry so expect radar hallucinations and banging your fist on the wall waiting for flakes.  It's how we do things here.  

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At this point I'll hug every model, tweet, known and unknown met, experienced and inexperienced weather hobbiest, and even my dog if they give me the most snow. Anyone but JB (both of them). I still can't get behind JB's. Except the band The JB's. Can never turn down a funky good time. 

i had a coworker who followed him and he would get hyped over storms that clearly were in fantasyland.  made me think some of his followers just like the "show" portion of it.  i'm a realist.  if i see a legit threat i'm in.  if i think it's suspect i'll give pause and focus on what could go wrong.  

radar looks good for now as far as trajectory to this area goes, but also gotta take into account the latitude (or maybe not).  with that said, PA is certainly in a wonderful spot for this, but i like our chances more than i did yesterday.

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Oddly lwx always does better at accounting for the northern MD souther PA ridges then CTP. For whatever reason they rarely even have any hint of them in their snow forecast and it leads to a lack of zones matching up along the mason dixon line. 

They do the same thing out here. They just seem to completely ignore the elevation out this way for some reason.

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