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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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9 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

GFS takes a yuge step toward the Euro/CMC solution. 

Yeah had no snow really over NC at all last run this run very much in line with CMC/Euro....just need another 100-150 miles further south with track and the better cold air and this would at least look a bit better than last system.....

gfs_asnow_seus_25.thumb.png.6736d8a48fc11c2ecd28cc930a8b0a71.png

 

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13 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah had no snow really over NC at all last run this run very much in line with CMC/Euro....just need another 100-150 miles further south with track and the better cold air and this would at least look a bit better than last system.....

gfs_asnow_seus_25.thumb.png.6736d8a48fc11c2ecd28cc930a8b0a71.png

 

That map looks eerily similar to the one for the last storm about 3 days out.  Saw that one inch further south each run. 

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2 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

That map looks eerily similar to the one for the last storm about 3 days out.  Saw that one inch further south each run. 

I know that this has been said before, and it adds nothing to the discussion, but where in the f*** was this in February?

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5 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Hour 123,Euro upping it slowly.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018031612_123_480_215.png

This and the above CMC are the first maps I've seen that show any snow for the upstate since Jan. The models actually did very well with snow placement last week with almost all of NC getting some but it never getting into SC, they nailed that. Most of them showing a similar scenario this time with SC getting missed again, but these two show little. Would be neat to see but it won't happen.

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2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I know that this has been said before, and it adds nothing to the discussion, but where in the f*** was this in February?

Manitoba

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All the overnight and early morning model runs still have snow showing(similar to yesterday) for the day 5 period. **I haven't seen the euro except for the crappy Tropical Tidbits maps.

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11 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I know that this has been said before, and it adds nothing to the discussion, but where in the f*** was this in February?

February was a nightmare for the ski areas.  For the mountain folks it could be May or even June before we see night time lows as warm as some of those nights in February.  Next week should add to the ever increasing number of days we have seen snow in March.

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From RAH:

Additional mid/upper level energy is expected to dive southeastward
and into our area for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Model continue
to struggle with how this system will evolve, but there remains the
potential for a mix of rain/snow across northern/northeastern
portions of the area on Wednesday/Wednesday evening. Dry weather is
expected to generally return for late week with the mid
upper level
trough axis expected to shift to the east.

Temps during the
medium range are generally expected to remain below
normal, with temps well below normal in the heart of the CAD
(Piedmont) early this week and again on Wednesday with the threat of
wintry precip.

 

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11 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

This and the above CMC are the first maps I've seen that show any snow for the upstate since Jan. The models actually did very well with snow placement last week with almost all of NC getting some but it never getting into SC, they nailed that. Most of them showing a similar scenario this time with SC getting missed again, but these two show little. Would be neat to see but it won't happen.

yep GSP says winter isn't over yet, surprised not more chatter about the potential for snow the middle of the upcoming week.

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1 hour ago, Poimen said:

I'd be a doubter if it were not for the event earlier this week. Let's real this puppy in! 

I'm having a hard time believing the possibility.  But all the models support a change over to snow with accumulations (...10:1), it's less than 5 days out, and RAH has put snow in my grid forecast. 

So I agree, let's reel it in...

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18 minutes ago, Snovary said:

Afternoon GFS backed off totals a bit... more realistic

gfs_asnow_seus_20.png

Aaaaand  back to zilch for SC,  as I expected. Carbon copy of last week minus TN and KY. Good winter for NC continues, bad for SC continues. 

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On 3/16/2018 at 8:56 PM, CaryWx said:

Dammit!  I had shut down until Dec.  What's all this crap

Me too...but picked up back up after what may be heading in this week...so back for another week

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27 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Too late! I’m all in.

5E8AC76E-9EA7-4190-991C-933C3DFE0E6B.png

I'll take 1 inch for late march. Snow showers are now mentioned in our forecast for Wednesday night.

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with most if not all the models showing snow next wednesday afternoon or night  GSP doesn't sound to excited yet, guess they're playing the conservative roll right now.

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