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bluewave

October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

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11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 3 pm, TEB was reporting an 82° reading. That figure is suspect, as it is notably warmer than the temperature at any other nearby location.

 

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I noticed that last week when they were 5 degrees higher than all other sites

Those warm spikes tend to happen at TEB fairly often. I'm pretty sure the spikes are caused by jet exhaust since the sensor is unusually close to the runway/taxiways.

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Next 8 days averaging about 60degs. to close out Oct.  This is +7degs.

A new record warmest Oct. looks to be IN LIKE FLINT, say +7.5degs, old was +6.7degs.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Out in eastern Suffolk for court. Looks like a different state foliage wise. Bright colors abound. 

I noticed over the past weekend colors have come on a lot. Like a switch flipped Sunday night. Driving Monday morning there was quite a bit of color just north of NYC.

Warm or not they are gonna change, we just get a shorter window of fall foilage.

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I'm starting to get some nice bursts of color around here.  I've seen better, but at least it's looking like Fall.  Definitely behind schedule compared to last year, when the colors started popping around the second week of October.

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8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I'm starting to get some nice bursts of color around here.  I've seen better, but at least it's looking like Fall.  Definitely behind schedule compared to last year, when the colors started popping around the second week of October.

We were about a week behind schedule up here

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14 minutes ago, snywx said:

We were about a week behind schedule up here

About the same here, maybe closer to 2 weeks.

I noticed last year was a gradual change and the trees were more filled out at this point.

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47 minutes ago, dWave said:

I noticed over the past weekend colors have come on a lot. Like a switch flipped Sunday night. Driving Monday morning there was quite a bit of color just north of NYC.

Warm or not they are gonna change, we just get a shorter window of fall foilage.

I was in Wading River all weekend and was shocked at the lack of colors. It was alarming compared to the last 30 years I have been out there.

 

I also did notice the Sunday-Monday light switch. I don't know if it was the damp air (because it was a warm evening) but more color has filled in.

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57 minutes ago, dWave said:

I noticed over the past weekend colors have come on a lot. Like a switch flipped Sunday night. Driving Monday morning there was quite a bit of color just north of NYC.

Warm or not they are gonna change, we just get a shorter window of fall foilage.

Yep same here. Saturday there was alot of color out west but not closer to where I live. Now we're about 50-60% color

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At 12 pm, readings around the NYC area were as follows:

Bridgeport: 74°
Islip: 72°
New York City:
…JFK: 72°
…LGA: 76°
…NYC: 73°
Newark: 75°
White Plains: 74°

Taking into consideration the forecast temperature anomalies on the MOS, there was an implied 61% probability that NYC would set a new record for the warmest October and a 55% implied probability that October 2017 would have a mean temperature at or above 64°.

Looking ahead following Lan’s impacting the jet stream, which should allow for an intrusion of colder than normal air toward the very end of October or start of November, the EPS is forecasting the development of a pattern that is remarkably similar to that which prevailed during the November 1-15, 1979 period. During that period, one-third of days had high temperatures at or above 60°. There was only a single day with a sub-40° low temperature. The mean temperature was 51.4° (53.9° during the first 10 days). The forecast return of a strongly negative PNA and positive EPO in the extended range also lends support to that guidance. In short, the first week of November will likely wind up warmer than normal despite any early intrusion of colder air.

Nov1-15-2017-1979.jpg

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24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 12 pm, readings around the NYC area were as follows:

Bridgeport: 74°
Islip: 72°
New York City:
…JFK: 72°
…LGA: 76°
…NYC: 73°
Newark: 75°
White Plains: 74°

Taking into consideration the forecast temperature anomalies on the MOS, there was an implied 61% probability that NYC would set a new record for the warmest October and a 55% implied probability that October 2017 would have a mean temperature at or above 64°.

Looking ahead following Lan’s impacting the jet stream, which should allow for an intrusion of colder than normal air toward the very end of October or start of November, the EPS is forecasting the development of a pattern that is remarkably similar to that which prevailed during the November 1-15, 1979 period. During that period, one-third of days had high temperatures at or above 60°. There was only a single day with a sub-40° low temperature. The mean temperature was 51.4° (53.9° during the first 10 days). The forecast return of a strongly negative PNA and positive EPO in the extended range also lends support to that guidance. In short, the first week of November will likely wind up warmer than normal despite any early intrusion of colder air.

Nov1-15-2017-1979.jpg

Starting to get scary.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 12 pm, readings around the NYC area were as follows:

Bridgeport: 74°
Islip: 72°
New York City:
…JFK: 72°
…LGA: 76°
…NYC: 73°
Newark: 75°
White Plains: 74°

Taking into consideration the forecast temperature anomalies on the MOS, there was an implied 61% probability that NYC would set a new record for the warmest October and a 55% implied probability that October 2017 would have a mean temperature at or above 64°.

Looking ahead following Lan’s impacting the jet stream, which should allow for an intrusion of colder than normal air toward the very end of October or start of November, the EPS is forecasting the development of a pattern that is remarkably similar to that which prevailed during the November 1-15, 1979 period. During that period, one-third of days had high temperatures at or above 60°. There was only a single day with a sub-40° low temperature. The mean temperature was 51.4° (53.9° during the first 10 days). The forecast return of a strongly negative PNA and positive EPO in the extended range also lends support to that guidance. In short, the first week of November will likely wind up warmer than normal despite any early intrusion of colder air.

Nov1-15-2017-1979.jpg

Great post as always Don. There is mounting evidence that November ends up warmer to much warmer than normal for the reasons you stated above. If it does, that would make for the 3rd above normal month in a row (Sept, Oct, Nov). We have been in a warm pattern ever since the 1st week of Sept

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Just now, Snow88 said:

I want a year where it is cold from November - March. Is that too hard to ask for ?

It was hard enough before climate change shortened our winters to 4 weeks 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Great post as always Don. There is mounting evidence that November ends up warmer to much warmer than normal for the reasons you stated above. If it does, that would make for the 3rd above normal month in a row (Sept, Oct, Nov). We have been in a warm pattern ever since the 1st week of Sept

We have not seen a cool month from September to February since the super El Nino upped the ante on an already record warm 2010's starting in May 2015.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Great post as always Don. There is mounting evidence that November ends up warmer to much warmer than normal for the reasons you stated above. If it does, that would make for the 3rd above normal month in a row (Sept, Oct, Nov). We have been in a warm pattern ever since the 1st week of Sept

But that's the thing, we aren't just AN anymore, we are consistently shattering monthly records or at the very least getting into the top 5. 

It's the warmest October on record and nobody's batting an eye, people would go nuts if this was the coldest October on record or any other month. That's why Feb 2015 was so shocking. 

I agree that November will likely follow the same warm trend but it won't just be a +1 or +2 departure, it could be as high as +8 or better. Even regular AN months are becoming rare, now everything has to break heat records. 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

But that's the thing, we aren't just AN anymore, we are consistently shattering monthly records or at the very least getting into the top 5. 

It's the warmest October on record and nobody's batting an eye, people would go nuts if this was the coldest October on record or any other month. That's why Feb 2015 was so shocking. 

I agree that November will likely follow the same warm trend but it won't just be a +1 or +2 departure, it could be as high as +8 or better. Even regular AN months are becoming rare, now everything has to break heat records. 

If the new CFS and JMA runs are correct for November, it will be a blowtorch....

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new CFS and JMA runs are correct for November, it will be a blowtorch....

I see no reason to doubt them, pretty good consensus on a ridge over the east. 

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models continue to underestimate the strength of the WAR longer range.

No screaming PAC jet slamming into the WC and no death vortex over AK though....I'll take it for now.  Actually, that's a great PAC look, especially considering that we are in a Niña, no?  I feel like, with time, we'll get periodic ATL help to do the trick.

Right now, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic for a decent December (especially in comparison to the last few).

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