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bluewave

October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

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October is set to start out with a similar pattern to what we saw last October. Alaska ridge, Pacific Northwest trough, and Eastern ridge. 

 

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

October is set to start out with a similar pattern to what we saw last October. Alaska ridge, Pacific Northwest trough, and Eastern ridge. 

 

eps_z500a_5d_noram_39.thumb.png.8655fbaa3a1cd2ec77e649fbc90e5e3f.png

16.png.a5aeefca66c75fa0de4bba5087131535.png

 

 

This time of year you want warmer weather, also if it can't snow might as well be warm.

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7 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

This time of year you want warmer weather, also if it can't snow might as well be warm.

The last cool October here was way back in 2009.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last cool October here was way back in 2009.

Yes and October prior to 2007 was the month that was the most normal!

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1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Yes and October prior to 2007 was the month that was the most normal!

2007 was the year that started the string of incredibly warm Octobers, although 2006 did have a mild fall as well. I was living in Poughkeepsie in October 2007, and we had a string of days in the mid to upper 80s...it was scorching hot. Luckily, 2008 and 2009 had relatively cool weather in October, with snow events on 10/28/08 and 10/14/09. Those years would prove the exception, however. 

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October can be warm but not to the point where I have to keep my A/C on. I would also love to finally sleep with the windows open, can't do that with 80s for highs and dews near 70 at night. 

At least the weekend looks great, this tropical air has been ridiculous. 

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EWR has reached the upper 80's many times in the last twenty years during early October, and has even hit the lower 90's a few times. The 1940's, 1950's and 2010's have all produced exceptionally warm Octobers at EWR, including last years mid 80's on the 17-19th. It's worth noting that most of the exceptionally warm periods were followed up by normal or below average periods. 

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I just returned from a new England Canada cruise. It was insanely hot in Quebec city and Montreal. 93 degrees in QC in late September. Last night in Montreal felt like South Florida.

 

Amazing

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very close to the strongest 500 mb ridge on record for our area in October.

the edges of our transition seasons are being chipped away

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On September 27, 2017 at 9:08 PM, bigtenfan said:

I just returned from a new England Canada cruise. It was insanely hot in Quebec city and Montreal. 93 degrees in QC in late September. Last night in Montreal felt like South Florida.

 

Amazing

How rough were the seas with two hurricanes near bye?

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18 hours ago, psv88 said:

If it hasnt happened yet, how do you know it wont be as bad? Using your logic there...

The point is anything is possible which obviously is the most logical!

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3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Agreed but you contradict yourself when you said it won't be as bad as last time...

It won't be 90....very unlikely so in that respect,not as bad. September seems to be running warmer than any month in relation to average during the 2010's.

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34 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

It won't be 90....very unlikely so in that respect,not as bad. September seems to be running warmer than any month in relation to average during the 2010's.

Because averages are in rapid decline so that makes it harder to crack 90 but in terms of relative values, October looks even more anomalous than September. 

Nothing but hot & dry next month, the foliage season will be shot, we could see an awful brush fire season with the building drought & 80s. 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Because averages are in rapid decline so that makes it harder to crack 90 but in terms of relative values, October looks even more anomalous than September. 

Nothing but hot & dry next month, the foliage season will be shot, we could see an awful brush fire season with the building drought & 80s. 

Right, the reading may not be as high on the thermometer, but relative to average we will be way above.

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23 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

How rough were the seas with two hurricanes near bye?

There was one night I believe that it was Wednesday night of last week going between Portland and Bar harbor where the winds had gotten to 60 knots where only 25-35 knots were predicted. To say that the ship was rocking and rolling is a huge understatement. This was a smaller ship about 1200 passengers compared to the 6000 passenger floating cities . The next day the captain said that he was taken by surprise and had personally spent the entire night on the bridge.

 

Other than that one night it was surprisingly calm considering our hurricane surroundings.

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19 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Because averages are in rapid decline so that makes it harder to crack 90 but in terms of relative values, October looks even more anomalous than September. 

Nothing but hot & dry next month, the foliage season will be shot, we could see an awful brush fire season with the building drought & 80s. 

As Bluewave just noted a couple of days ago, we have not had a cool October since 2009 and no one can forget 2007! There is nothing wrong with a warm October, since it can't snow might as well be warm...although I agree warm and dry is not good for foliage.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the Pacific and North American pattern this October repeats for the winter (DJF) like it did last year. While last October and winter were warm, the poleward extension of the Aleutian ridge in October carried over into winter. The stronger ridging near Alaska which dropped the EPO during several key intervals was responsible for our winter snows. So we were able to get a near to above normal snowfall winter despite the top 5 or 10 winter warmth. So we'll have to see how Alaska fares this October in regard to ridging and whether there is a carryover into winter. I won't even try and guess how the Atlantic blocking signal will play out since last winter went against October. The PDO has also become more neutral this fall  so  am not sure if we can count on the stronger ridging near Alaska since the PDO was more positive last winter. Still time for the variables like PDO to change so we'll see how things go.

I would sign up for last winter every year. 150% of normal w/ 75".

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the ao/nao is forecast to go positive...last October had a very negative ao and the winter ao was positive...I hope the ao stays positive until November...

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