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  1. Ops more than a few days out have'nt done too well!
  2. End of November is really long range, I would'nt count on any guidance more than 2 weeks off.
  3. Above normal is the new normal. I used to think that 2 above the 1981-2010 averages is the new normal, but that is almost a sure bet every month however many months are well above that and there are many more well above average months than below normal months.
  4. The most important is the October warmth.
  5. My thinking is this winter will be like 07-08.
  6. The east probably has warmed faster than any part of the country.
  7. If anyone predicts 2 or 3 above the 1981-2010 averages they will be right a majority of the time given recent trends. If this keeps up it will be hard to get much snow in the big cities especially NYC south, but if the timing is right as it has been I think especially NYC will continue to do fine but south of there would be more of a problem.
  8. Blocking is not as important north of NYC.
  9. His track record is not that great.
  10. As Bluewave just noted a couple of days ago, we have not had a cool October since 2009 and no one can forget 2007! There is nothing wrong with a warm October, since it can't snow might as well be warm...although I agree warm and dry is not good for foliage.
  11. It won't be 90....very unlikely so in that respect,not as bad. September seems to be running warmer than any month in relation to average during the 2010's.
  12. The point is anything is possible which obviously is the most logical!
  13. Not as bad as last time, again it has'nt happened yet.
  14. Yes and October prior to 2007 was the month that was the most normal!