• Member Statistics

    16,258
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PoZitron20
    Newest Member
    PoZitron20
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Jtm12180

Hurricane Maria

Recommended Posts

The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile.

There are no 4500 ft peaks that will help San Juan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, wxmx said:

No, but you can use the one that wanted you to plug the numbers. I explained where to get the data here

 

I got an IKE of 38.2 for Maria using the data from the 5pm EDT advisory

 

 

59c1b8ed72d1c_ScreenShot2017-09-19at7_39_39PM.thumb.png.8fa98a58190572cd61f0e5f0821a4730.png

 

Thank you for that info. I was a bit confused on how to use the resource but that is extremely helpful. 

 

That seems so low for IKE. Is it because it's such a small eye and a relatively low time of being a cat5?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just wanted to show this hi-res GOES-16 image of hurricane Maria from earlier (14:44z) - image processed at CIRA, Fort Collins, CO. Retweeted by Dan Lindsey, who probably set up the system to make the looping image.

VqOZ3Z3.png

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Thank you for that info. I was a bit confused on how to use the resource but that is extremely helpful. 

 

That seems so low for IKE. Is it because it's such a small eye and a relatively low time of being a cat5?

Time is not a variable taken into account by IKE. It's a compact storm, that's why it's "low". Andrew's IKE was around 20 at peak and Charley's around 10.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem with mountainous terrain is that there can be severe flash flooding and mudslides where they drain.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yeah, wishful thinking at this point. Just trying to grasp at straws. I just feel so frantic watching this -- it always brings back such horrible memories of moving to New Orleans, Aug 1 2005. Was just hoping that maybe it would help to bring some dry air into it's core from the elevation, and saw there was mountains where it's meant to landfall, but I guess it's too little too late at this point, huh. 

There are, they just aren't 4500 feet. More like 3200 at their peak.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Time is not a variable taken into account by IKE. It's a compact storm, that's why it's "low". Andrew's IKE was around 20 at peak and Charley's around 10.

Yup. TIKE is a related measurement that takes into account the total track. Sandy crushes all in TIKE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, bobbutts said:

The problem with mountainous terrain is that there can be severe flash flooding and mudslides in their where they drain.

 

The outer bands will already be causing tremendous amounts of flash flooding before the center even gets to the islands. Massive life-threatening mud slide threat here 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can see the outer ring of convection on radar associated with the secondary wind max mentioned in the 5 pm NHC discussion. So far it doesnt appear to be choking off the eyewall though. I would assume that if an ERC did start now it probably would not complete before PR landfall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing that will be interesting to see is what impact the land interaction with PR will have with Maria. It will weaken, obviously, but it could skirt along the northern part of the island when it's trying to come off and shift things west later on down the road. Just something I'll keep an eye on tomorrow morning. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You can see the outer ring of convection on radar associated with the secondary wind max mentioned in the 5 pm NHC discussion. So far it doesnt appear to be choking off the eyewall though. I would assume that if an ERC did start now it probably would not complete before PR landfall.

 

The outer band does look to be intensifying. Unfortunately, even if St. Croix doesn't get into the northeast eyewall, that outer band may have long duration winds of hurricane force as it is moving over them. They are still going to get rocked.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The outer band does look to be intensifying. Unfortunately, even if St. Croix doesn't get into the northeast eyewall, that outer band may have long duration winds of hurricane force as it is moving over them. They are still going to get rocked.

 

Yeah, it is already pretty impressive on that St Croix livestream. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

You can see the outer ring of convection on radar associated with the secondary wind max mentioned in the 5 pm NHC discussion. So far it doesnt appear to be choking off the eyewall though. I would assume that if an ERC did start now it probably would not complete before PR landfall.

Outer ring should pass over St. Croix.  Unlucky timing for them for it to be strong at this point.  Looks like two healthy eyewall features to me.

2017-09-19_210239.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

Seeing secondary wind max on radar @ 14k feet, and also a secondary ring of cold cloud tops starting to separate on IR:

 

 

gifsBy12hr_04.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, it is already pretty impressive on that St Croix livestream. 

Keep in mind that the St. Croix livestream is in Christiansted, which is on the north side of the island and more centrally located.  The worst of the storm will likely be the west end of the island, near Fredericksted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to compare a few numbers, flight level from the last recon pass was about 9000 feet when it passed through the secondary wind max, which was read as about 103mph (90kts) flight level winds. Higher altitude, winds will be less. We are now seeing widespread winds at 14000 feet at 120 to 130mph, with an occasional 130mph+ rate (radar estimated). This is in about an hour and a half. That's a big jump in the 2ndary wind max velocity.

(note: the 145mph readings on radar appear to be radar noise - they are all over, not just in the wind maxima regions)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hotair said:

HMON projecting 880 mb. Can someone please confirm?

HMON pressures are not reliable.  HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening.

  • Like 10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Hotair said:

HMON projecting 880 mb. Can someone please confirm?

Yes, but the HMON isn't ocean coupled in the Atlantic basin so we generally disregard the actual intensity output from it. It may still be useful in the sense that it "sees" an otherwise favorable environment. But, be careful about taking it too literally.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

HMON pressures are not reliable.  HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening.

Thank you.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
HMON pressures are not reliable.  HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening.

 

Yes, though ironically HMON is the acronym for Hurricanes in a Multi- scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, it is not ocean-coupled in the Atlantic Basin like in the Pacific. Its pressure intensities for mature systems get overdone in the Atlantic and should not be trusted for Maria.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.