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About WxReese

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  1. WxReese

    November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast

    Interesting sounding from RNK tonight (they're back up and running, btw). Heck of a dry layer at 850, so most of that "rain/snow" on radar north of Roanoke isn't reaching the ground yet. A friend of mine did report a bit of light rain in Blacksburg though. Either way, that warm nose around 800mb is fairly pronounced, even if we wet-bulb down. It'll be a fun 12-18 hours to see how things unfold with our first system of the season.
  2. WxReese

    November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast

    NWS RAH has taken over duties from NWS RNK. Not sure what is going on at RNK, but we won't have radar until the office gets back up and running. What a way to start our first event of the season.
  3. WxReese

    November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast

    40/28 at 6 PM and the DP has been going up the past few hours. Sleet-mageddon cancel for CHO.
  4. WxReese

    November 15 Snow/Ice Chance

    I can't wait to deal with sleet-mageddon down this way. Sure, we'll mix with a touch of snow at the onset, but most soundings I've seen are super sleet-y around CHO. Then it changes over to ZR before going to cold rain. It'll be interesting to see just how much sleet we can get (currently thinking 0.3-0.5") and if that cold rain can create some decent sheets of ice. At least this is a good test run for future winter weather events around here!
  5. WxReese

    October Discobs Thread

    It's from WSI, our weather computer vendor at my TV station, and we get that along with the RPM in their "model lab". We also get the EURO, GFS, and GEM, but the zones are rather limited. They do, however, come in as fast as other sites, so it's still super useful during big weather events.
  6. WxReese

    October Discobs Thread

    I love how he only shows the forecast snow out to HR 65, which is Sunday evening. The full run of the Deep Thunder has ZERO snow for anywhere close to BWI. Nothing even remotely hints at the possibility of a rain/snow mix for that far south... Seriously, WTF is he smoking?
  7. WxReese

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    What an intense 30-ish hours down here in Charlottesville! Last night was absolutely insane. The most insane thing about it is the RPM and HRRR pretty much nailed these ridiculous rain totals as the afternoon progressed. It's always tough to believe the 8-18" (HRRR had 18"... seriously), those models were spitting out, but did they verify! I kept watching this PWS between updating FB/Twitter last night. The highest rain rate was 7.2"/hr. I mean, WHAT!? It was heartbreaking when I found out about the missing person in Madison County and the 2 people near Ivy just west of Charlottesville. According to some emergency personnel, some roads were under 5-8' of water last night. That's just insane to me. If that "fire hose" had been 8 miles east, we'd be talking about a lot more deaths/missing people than we already are.
  8. WxReese

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    Had a 4.2" of snow just south of Charlottesville. That eclipses the snow total we had thus far this year (3.4") and all of last year (3.6") in one storm. haha! Let's see what Saturday night/Sunday morning have in store for us. My concern is the strong high will crush everything south of us. We shall see.
  9. WxReese

    Tracking Nate

    The way this is going, I'm not expecting more than a breeze at this point. What a snoozefest.
  10. WxReese

    2017 First Freeze Contest!

    You are forecasting the first day the temperature reaches 32F at these locations: DCA: 11/24 BWI: 11/14 IAD: 11/14 RIC: 12/1 Tiebreaker: 3
  11. WxReese

    Hurricane Maria

    The forecasts from the GFS, CMC, and EURO have been fairly consistent thus far. The real test comes the next day or two when the CMC has Maria flirting with the Turks and Caicos while the GFS and EURO keep it well east of them. We'd have to see a rather significant shift west tonight for the CMC's forecasts to verify. GFS: EURO CMC:
  12. WxReese

    September Disco/Obs Thread

    This is amazing weather. If it was the middle of July. This being the middle of September absolutely sucks. We shouldn't be flirting with 90 for 5-7 days in a row. Can't wait for relief to close out September next week.
  13. WxReese

    Hurricane Maria

    One thing that will be interesting to see is what impact the land interaction with PR will have with Maria. It will weaken, obviously, but it could skirt along the northern part of the island when it's trying to come off and shift things west later on down the road. Just something I'll keep an eye on tomorrow morning.
  14. WxReese

    Hurricane Maria

    2005 had 4 Category 5s: Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma.
  15. WxReese

    Harvey - Main Thread

    Here's the link to the very first one with Matthew last year: https://www.weather.gov/media/mlb/surveys/Matthew.pdf