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Fall 2017 Model Mehham

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Watch that cut off 987 on the Euro. Big big tides start next weekend

Interesting solution.  1.5" of rain followed by 6-12 up this way.  What a moisture feed.

Days of on-shore flow for your tides.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting solution.  1.5" of rain followed by 6-12 up this way.  What a moisture feed.

Days of on-shore flow for your tides.

That crushes you, bombs out from 987 south of LI to 979 at the BM, sneaky stuff. 

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23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That crushes you, bombs out from 987 south of LI to 979 at the BM, sneaky stuff. 

Actually produces measurable pretty far south , something to watch , sneaky systems 

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Does it sneak SNE tips?

Grain of salt and verbatim it gives Dendrite Berks 2 to 4 ORH 1-2 and NE CT an inch . But something to watch , slower deeper and ya never know. Sig is there for this type of system, why I mentioned this morning. Week away and obviously not certain.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I struggled to keep my clothes on when the EPS rolled out.

Tons of blocking starting December 8

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I struggled to keep my clothes on when the EPS rolled out.

I see three buns. One through AK, one up the West Coast, and a third through Greenland.

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38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I struggled to keep my clothes on when the EPS rolled out.

That’s one hell of a pattern if it’s right .  Unanimous ensemble support lends it some  credibility.  

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30 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I see three buns. One through AK, one up the West Coast, and a third through Greenland.

I like that triple wiener special your speaking of.  

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48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I struggled to keep my clothes on when the EPS rolled out.

I lost the battle.  It’s warm today and I just realized I’m walking the dog without pants....

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Guys... i started a new thread to get away from the 100 page novel... geesh...

oh well...

PF, the reason the GFS looks that way ...the "engineering" frustration, is because of the lack of cold air in the lower troposphere.  More than just dictating rain vs snow ... the cold air is really needed to enhance thickness gradients and steep frontal slopes there in, such that UVM is brought closer to the surface where dynamics and deeper lows would change the complexion of those cyclones to more of a wintry look.  Thing is, ...that is so close with a marginality overall that I wouldn't sweat it so long as the activity in the time frame is verifiable.

Which, as i explained in that new thread for the modeling ... the NAO is really the key-stone index for the time frame in question, because the Pac is pretty hostile right through the 10th or so of Dec.  the nao could be the savior but we just got to get one of these negative regimes to actually take place.

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Guys... i started a new thread to get away from the 100 page novel... geesh...

oh well...

PF, the reason the GFS looks that way ...the "engineering" frustration, is because of the lack of cold air in the lower troposphere.  More than just dictating rain vs snow ... the cold air is really needed to enhance thickness gradients and steep frontal slopes there in, such that UVM is brought closer to the surface where dynamics and deeper lows would change the complexion of those cyclones to more of a wintry look.  Thing is, ...that is so close with a marginality overall that I wouldn't sweat it so long as the activity in the time frame is verifiable.

Which, as i explained in that new thread for the modeling ... the NAO is really the key-stone index for the time frame in question, because the Pac is pretty hostile right through the 10th or so of Dec. the nao could be the savior but we just got to get one of these negative regimes to actually take place.

John, the major ensembles (Canadian, GEFS, EPS) all bring in a favorable pacific between 12/7-10.   Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen but most of the time nothing happens by then in SNE anyway.

 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s an extremely snowy pattern starting on Dec 7th

Thats only two weeks away...weren’t you saying 3 weeks yesterday??  

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