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Go Kart Mozart

Fall 2017 Model Mehham

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5 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Based on the models, we look dry and ~AN for the next 10 days. After that, according to this website and some personal research I have done, it seems like most models agree on things becoming interesting. Teleconnectors and regular model maps support this. Even CFS says cold. 

 

I'll take it! 

CFS is a conus torch. 

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13 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Based on the models, we look dry and ~AN for the next 10 days. After that, according to this website and some personal research I have done, it seems like most models agree on things becoming interesting. Teleconnectors and regular model maps support this. Even CFS says cold. 

 

I'll take it! 

Umm no the CFS is not cold. Either you’re making it up or you really didn’t look. These daily antics are getting tiresome 

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Cfs did switch to colder in New England a few days ago but it went back to a torch. 

But yeah, it had an absolute furnace for November too on its final 10 runs or so of October. It's really not worth much. I certainly would put less stock in it than the weeklies...at least out to week 3. 

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19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Umm no the CFS is not cold. Either you’re making it up or you really didn’t look. These daily antics are getting tiresome 

So everyone who joins this site has to be a pro Met from day 1. Cool. Sorry to tire you.

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Cfs did switch to colder in New England a few days ago but it went back to a torch. 

But yeah, it had an absolute furnace for November too on its final 10 runs or so of October. It's really not worth much. I certainly would put less stock in it than the weeklies...at least out to week 3. 

He probably had the last, colder run in mind. Hardly "antics"...

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On 11/23/2017 at 5:49 AM, moneypitmike said:

ICan you explain this?  I've been looking at this.....I"m not sure what the heck it's supposed to be showing me.

 

Happy Thanksgiving.

 

On 11/23/2017 at 10:47 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Happy Thanksgiving,  coldest 90 day stretch relative to Met Winter, basically says Dec 5th through 10th through March 5th through 10th in our coldest depending on location,  we mid month.

It's another way of looking at this (when does the 91 day stretch of winter end):

 post-44-0-78412700-1442375253_thumb.png

We basically have the same winter season as MIA. :D

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Cfs did switch to colder in New England a few days ago but it went back to a torch. 

But yeah, it had an absolute furnace for November too on its final 10 runs or so of October. It's really not worth much. I certainly would put less stock in it than the weeklies...at least out to week 3. 

 

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The CFS will more than likely be wrong with a CONUS torch.  I'm not even sure it's debatable. 

Good thing we have 4 runs a day!

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50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The CFS will more than likely be wrong with a CONUS torch.  I'm not even sure it's debatable. 

We would prob need a big shift away from the -EPO/-NAO pattern by mid month or just beyond to get a big conus wide torch. Or we see the guidance completely break down and bust  on that pattern even developing in the first place. But hard to think it will given the agreement...but stranger things have happened with 12-15 days lead time. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We would prob need a big shift away from the -EPO/-NAO pattern by mid month or just beyond to get a big conus wide torch. Or we see the guidance completely break down and bust  on that pattern even developing in the first place. But hard to think it will given the agreement...but stranger things have happened with 12-15 days lead time. 

Yeah it would have to be a wholesale regime shift to reverse departures. I dunno...seems difficult to do. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it would have to be a wholesale regime shift to reverse departures. I dunno...seems difficult to do. 

In fairness, I could see the cold underperforming a bit if we end up with more of a PNA ridge and a neutralish EPO...it would be cold enough for snow threats, but maybe the type of conus pattern where the N plains are above normal and only Ontario to southern Quebec to New England are modestly cold. 

But some of the guidance has a really poleward EPO (including week 3 on weeklies and end of some of ensemble runs) which would probably point toward departures getting colder as we go deeper into the 3rd week of December...you can see the push into the Canadian prairies. 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Umm no the CFS is not cold. Either you’re making it up or you really didn’t look. These daily antics are getting tiresome

None of us are angels but you seem downright mean.

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54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Classic late Fall cutoff.

lol that GFS solution is hilarious at how its engineering itself to be days of cold rain everywhere.   Rain, heavy at times, Day 6-9, ha.

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18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol that GFS solution is hilarious at how its engineering itself to be days of cold rain everywhere.   Rain, heavy at times, Day 6-9, ha.

So much for a dry spell.

Has James hoisted blizzard warnings yet for Cape Cod, Massachusetts for Dec. 11?

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