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Go Kart Mozart

Fall 2017 Model Mehham

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20 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

your gonna have to start doing your own research sometimes, if not, your gonna be lost when the season starts

You’re *

this IS me doing research.

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On 11/22/2017 at 1:14 PM, tamarack said:

Completely agree on the 1st sentence, but the last one makes you look trivial.  Every POTUS for many many administrations has done the turkey pardon thing.  Imagine how loud the condemnations would've been had Trump not gone along with the silly ceremony.

Your opinion, but odd just the same.  What is trivial is having the turkey 'ceremony".  It may be the dumbest things I've ever seen with regard to "traditions".  I don't care if it's during another president, or during Trump's time, it needs to go. If people get on his case because he doesn't pardon a turkey, then maybe then we can revisit who is being trivial.  

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 From Ben Noll's twitter page. Looks like he is passing of the winter of 2000-2001 analog?. New ECMWF weeklies have some big trends in mid-Dec across North America and North Atlantic ... perhaps it shows the MJO progressing into phases 8-1 (colder). Looks somewhat like 2000.

DPWhIL-UIAAVWZB.jpg

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Weeklies for whatever they’re worth are cold weeks 3-4, with stormy appeal, but warm to close to torch weeks 1-2

:weenie::weenie::weenie:

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2 hours ago, leo2000 said:

 From Ben Noll's twitter page. Looks like he is passing of the winter of 2000-2001 analog?. New ECMWF weeklies have some big trends in mid-Dec across North America and North Atlantic ... perhaps it shows the MJO progressing into phases 8-1 (colder). Looks somewhat like 2000.

DPWhIL-UIAAVWZB.jpg

Oh BEN

IMG_20171123_214009.jpg

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Seems like the new "in" thing is to keep changing your winter forecast with every new update of the weeklies.

Natural progression of this pattern would seem to indicate week 3 is pretty plausible, maybe rushed but somewhere after the 10th things should look decent.

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Week 3 has a little skill but obviously you'd like to see it on the ensembles over the next few days. The end of the EPS does start to look a bit like week 3 on the weeklies. Not quite there yet but it's got an EPO going negative and the negative NAO. It just doesn't have the whole PAC side on roids yet like week 3. But I'd be pretty optimistic right now for December after the first week or so. 

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's a warm looking Day 10 on the Euro...barely any sub 0C 850 air in the Lower 48.  

Luckily it'll change in a few hours. 

It's that cutoff that won't happen off to the south.

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I feel pretty optimistic in the long range after the 7-10 or so. I know Will and others said that yesterday and I agree. That doesn't mean something can't happen before.....but I am speaking about a more stable and wintry look....not the ups and downs we will have.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel pretty optimistic in the long range after the 7-10 or so. I know Will and others said that yesterday and I agree. That doesn't mean something can't happen before.....but I am speaking about a more stable and wintry look....not the ups and downs we will have.

What's your hunch on the threshold b/t now and then? Seems to me to be mostly dry and AN. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel pretty optimistic in the long range after the 7-10 or so. I know Will and others said that yesterday and I agree. That doesn't mean something can't happen before.....but I am speaking about a more stable and wintry look....not the ups and downs we will have.

That seems to be a consensus view among level-headed pros like you and it reassures me that we aren't facing the type of situation where we are chasing a phantom pattern change that's perpetually three weeks away.

Reality check for all (including myself): There's still a week left in November...we aren't even at the starting line yet! :thumbsup:

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16 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

What's your hunch on the threshold b/t now and then? Seems to me to be mostly dry and AN. 

I don't see anything noteworthy for awhile. However once in a while the op runs show something whizzing by, so you can't rule anything out prior.  It does not look super torchy though.

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