• Member Statistics

    15,612
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Harold
    Newest Member
    Harold
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Go Kart Mozart

Fall 2017 Model Mehham

Recommended Posts

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That gefs look would get the party started promptly. No warmup tunes, just straight pumping hard beats getting folks on the dancefloor shaking their weenies. 

Canadian ensembles are on board at 12z too...we'll see how 12z EPS trends, but it looked decent last night, though not quite as balls-to-wall epic as GEFs/Canadian today.

 

Even if we think the setup is being rushed by 5-10 days which frequently happens, that still should make one optimistic for December. Instead of Dec 6 or 7, you're looking at Dec 11-16th for the great pattern to start. This doesn't preclude anything happening before that...we could get an event on Dec 4-5 for all we know. It's not completely hostile during that period...I'm just focusing on the much better period as currently modeled.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Technically it is but I never liked Connecticut so I vote to exclude CT out and make it part of the mid Atlantic. By the way is there snakes in ct?

 

on another note someone with more knowledge like weatherfell or damage in Rolland or coastal is there any legit snow threat that you can think of the next week to Saint Nicholas day December 5th-6th timeframe? Usually by then we get something!

Drunk?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EPS is looking very nice too in the LR. It tries to flex the SE ridge a bit in the Dec 3-5 timeframe, but it gets overwhelmed by a tanking EPO/NAO. It def is jumping on the NAO bandwagon late in the period...all 3 major ensemble packages do. We'll have to see if that can get closer than D10.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

More like 11/28-11/29...it's possible we see another mild incursion for a day or two in the 12/1-12/5 period but there's also some colder shots mixed in.

 

The 11-15 though is starting to look pretty tasty. GEFS went full-on GGW by the end of its run with huge PNA-EPO connection in tandem with a -NAO...Judah Cohen just had a seizure.

EPS went the other way

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian ensembles are on board at 12z too...we'll see how 12z EPS trends, but it looked decent last night, though not quite as balls-to-wall epic as GEFs/Canadian today.

 

Even if we think the setup is being rushed by 5-10 days which frequently happens, that still should make one optimistic for December. Instead of Dec 6 or 7, you're looking at Dec 11-16th for the great pattern to start. This doesn't preclude anything happening before that...we could get an event on Dec 4-5 for all we know. It's not completely hostile during that period...I'm just focusing on the much better period as currently modeled.

why does it always have to be another week away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is looking very nice too in the LR. It tries to flex the SE ridge a bit in the Dec 3-5 timeframe, but it gets overwhelmed by a tanking EPO/NAO. It def is jumping on the NAO bandwagon late in the period...all 3 major ensemble packages do. We'll have to see if that can get closer than D10.

? Major west coast trough

eps_z500a_noram_312.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

why does it always have to be another week away.

It doesn't. It just sometimes is. It also goes the other direction...a warmer pattern might get delayed if you are entrenched in a colder regime.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Major west coast trough

eps_z500a_noram_312.png

We gamble with that EPO/NAO look all month long. You can see it overwhelming it in later panels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

True, SE ridge doesn’t stand a chance with that epo/nao look. 

It definitely flexes though for a time on the EPS...ginxy is right pointing out the WC trough...it's not really there on the GGEM ensembles/GEFS...but the more important aspects to me are the EPO/NAO. We can live with western troughiness with a -EPO...add in a -NAO and its even better. It is also not clear any western troughiness hangs around...it starts to weaken and the weeklies had it gone by week 3...take with appropriate grain of salt obviously.

 

But the EPO/NAO signal is definitely good...details to be determined yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/15/2017 at 11:00 AM, Isotherm said:

The increasingly strong PNJ will imprint on the troposphere in about 10 days, as the stratospheric low geopotential height anomalies downwell. However, I expect a rather potent constructive interference of w1 which will begin converging on the stratoapheric vortex as early as November 23rd. This, subsequently, will weaken the vortex by approximately 35-40% of its previous intensity. That downwelling process will occur concurrently with the resumption of base state LF forcing; together, this should yield the reemergence of both a high latitude blocking signal and Aleutian ridging by later in the first week of December or the second week. I don't expect the models to reflect that for another several days mimimum.

 

To demonstrate that stratospheric discussion is not 'voodoo' - the wave 1 response is now occurring quite strongly over the coming 5-10 days, as I forecasted in mid November:

2j6vs0.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weathafella said:

 Right... so take the negative EPO from a couple weeks ago… Combine it with the obvious persistence of transitory we've had since, and can correlatejust mapped out across the whole winter. The irony being people are wondering if November can correlate

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lil Steve, the up and coming Moosup rapper. 

Lol this be y we mid December, imma gonna make ya memba

IMG_20171123_001054.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was one ugly Euro run last night. Long, long ways to go before any semblance of winter sometime in December

Been saying later in the second week and beyond for awhile now. ZZZZZZZ until then. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.