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CapturedNature

Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations

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1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

well for the vast majority of us including down here at work in Galilee the box forecast was a huge fail, we had some sprinkles....in the winter time there would be epic melt downs by many including me if they took to heart the box forecast discussion last night and first thing this morning....

Hmm.  Not to spark vitriol based upon hypotheticals in the first place but ... in winter, this scenario very likely have unfolded entirely different.

What this is, is a bit of a mid level cold anomaly moving overhead and causing a destablized sounding, combined with weak low level frontal gunk. As to the former aspect, Lifted Indexes plummeted from ~+10 to near zero since yesterday; yet, over an atmosphere that is saturated down to 48 to 55 from NW to SE across the area.  That chilly surface temperature is still THAT unstable with respect to the 700 mb? It's impressive - it's triggering those stationary heavy rain/cells on the shores due to the warm ocean/DP rich air moving onshore underneath...etc... OE thunderstorms.

Anytime in winter there is a forecast for snow on this particular social medium(a) and it doesn't happen, regardless of set up you get that emotive response ...sure, but "this" situation would have played out differently in colder sounding. The baroclinicity from 700 mb to the surface would have been inherently different, lending to better cyclogenic parameterization/kinematic forcing and all of that... You'd end up with something entirely different.   

aside...who in the hell would 'epically melt down' over a scenario that wouldn't produce more than a 2-4" anyway?   seems a bit crazy. 

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Tippy is right. This is more convective in this relatively "warmer" airmass. However give winter and likely larger thermal gradient...probably would have been more Synoptic snows and banding....and less of a convective and spotty nature of rain like we have now. To be fair, the hi res models did show this behavior too.

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3 hours ago, eyewall said:

Pi Day ratios last year were also high. It was a relatively easy 30 inch event to clear. It was of course again the mesoscale dust that took us over the top. It was my first ever 30 inch snow event.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk
 

A little different here - half the snow from nearly twice the LE:  15.5" and 2.12".  And it was nothing but snow, though relatively small flakes on big wind.

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42 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This stuff is extremely slow moving.  It's about 1mi away.

Took about 45min for the line to move that 1mi.  Pouring now.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Tippy is right. This is more convective in this relatively "warmer" airmass. However give winter and likely larger thermal gradient...probably would have been more Synoptic snows and banding....and less of a convective and spotty nature of rain like we have now. To be fair, the hi res models did show this behavior too.

lolol it just got real interesting down here in a hurry

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1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

mother of God is it pouring...I wonder if I complain like this will it work in Springfield in the winter when you guys are S++++ and I am s----

Wow, we saw nothing but a few showers this morning and a few hours of misery mist.  .08" total for the day. 

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11 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Get offline and enjoy vacation! 

Haha this is Europe...they have WiFi literally everywhere.  Decent amount of trains/planes and bus travel, all with Wifi.  And I can't stay away...phones make that possible.  Like back when you needed a computer to log on yes, but sitting on a train or resting in a hotel, one click and I'm back in Stowe haha.

Going to Brussels tomorrow before back to Munich and Montreal on Tuesday.

Last night was awesome...in a pub, hammering back beers from Eastern Europe (which is like water compared to the the double micro-brews of New England though) and having the Red Sox game streaming on my phone as a few of my family crowd around to watch them clinch the division.  The 7-hour time difference worked great...1pm Eastern time game started at 8pm here lol.

I'd highly recommend Budapest as a city to visit.  The history and architecture is incredible.  

Seeing back home is having the first freeze of the season this morning.  What a crazy flip.  Hottest stretch of the entire year, followed by mountain top flakes and hard valley freezes within 72 hours or so.  31/31 at MVL with freezing fog and love the unknown precip...must be some dense fog there.

KMVL 010754Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM UP FZFG VV002 M01/M01 A3038 RMK AO2 SLP294 P0000 T100

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1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Rip VP2

July 25 2005 - October 1 2017

What happened?

Min 36.6F this morn. My hikvision cam kicked out for the 3rd time now. 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What happened?

Min 36.6F this morn. My hikvision cam kicked out for the 3rd time now. 

It stopped transmitting last night as it was getting dark.  Gave it a new battery, but it never came back online.

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