Major Hurricane Irma

[Windspeed]

Per recon, 20nm and 45nm concentric eyewalls:

000URNT12 KWBC 052157VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL112017A. 05/21:38:37ZB. 17 deg 04 min N  059 deg 54 min WC. 700 mb 2399 mD. 144 ktE. 119 deg 9 nmF. 223 deg 145 ktG. 123 deg 11 nmH. 920 mbI. 10 C / 3062 mJ. 21 C / 3069 mK. 14 C / NAL. CLOSEDM. CO20-45N. 12345 / 7O. 0.02 / 1 nmP. NOAA2 1011A IRMA OB 05MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 151 KT 313 / 17 NM 21:42:58ZCNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 325 / 10 KTS

Thanks. Just based on the structure and recon data, the IEW may be around a while or remain intense through the Leewards. Just really looking for anything that could bring down intensity before landfall in the short term. May take a while to evolve before affecting the core negatively.

[nycwinter]

if this new track would happen what would the implications further up the coast be?

[NJwx85]

Even with a LF that far South TS winds extend well NE up towards the Delmarva.

[olafminesaw]

It has it strengthening into landfall. Unbelievable.

[MattPetrulli]

Relative in Ft Myers evacuating, not taking any chances even though its still a decent ways away. Better to leave now while the roads are empty. Better safe than sorry.

[snow1]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

if this new track would happen what would the implications further up the coast be?

Not much for areas north of Virginia. 

[HKY_WX]

It's interesting to note the perturbations on the Euro ensemble with stronger wind/pressure definitely tend to cluster further north. Makes me wonder if once the initializations start become more in line w/ reality, whether we'll see a jump north towards the GFS. The euro just appears too far south given the trough complex over the Eastern CONUS and also the stubbornness of a UL wanting to pinch off. That's a feature that has been shown for days off and on. This track is far from set in stone, obviously.

[csnavywx]

If there's an ERC coming, it sure didn't show up on the last recon pass. No outer wind max whatsoever. Wonder if we're just picking up lower topped convection on that radar. Need echo top data to confirm, but the microwave pass didn't show it either.

[jojo762]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Just another ensemble member, within the envelope for sure

Definitely on the eastern fringe of what the 12Z GEFS was showing though. Such a mess to forecast. This would be way outside of the cone... yikes. 

[wxmx]

3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

It's interesting to note the perturbations on the Euro ensemble with stronger wind/pressure definitely tend to cluster further north. Makes me wonder if once the initializations start become more in line w/ reality, whether we'll see a jump north towards the GFS. The euro just appears too far south given the trough complex over the Eastern CONUS and also the stubbornness of a UL wanting to pinch off. That's a feature that has been shown for days off and on. This track is far from set in stone, obviously.

I think that has more to do with land interaction than anything.

[TellicoWx]

Not sure I would Evac yet in FL, outside the keys anyway. I agree with Hkry, a correction NE will occur on the Euro. Too much focus on the Cuba argument, especially when ensemble spread could still put this up the coast similar to what 18z GFS just showed.

[Windspeed]

Video from NOAA42 punching the eyewall this afternoon.

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

if this new track would happen what would the implications further up the coast be?

It would probably depend on if/when it re-curves back OTS but I would think places further north would get into some action with at least weakened/remnants of Irma depending how far you are from landfall.

[NEG NAO]

Just remember last Thursday we had this solution - there is still the chance this can verify:

[MJO812]

Some Euro ensembles showed what the gfs shows. The whole east coast is still in this. Remember how Matthew changed within 3 days of landfall?

[Papa Joe]

27 minutes ago, Keysfins said:

The reef does not protect the bay side of the keys. 

Wilma passed on bayside of the Keys, and there was substantial storm surge from the middle keys to the lower keys. Marathon was awash, and a great deal if damage and losses were from the surge. This was water that moved on the Florida Bay side, no reef offshore to dampen any water movement, just a large, gently sloping body of water open to the GOM. 

Source: my back yard  

 

 

True dat, but Floria Bay is shallow enough that I'm not sure if you could get a 20' storm surge.

I fully expect the keys to have historic storm surge (probably not as high as the '35 storm but over a wider area) if it misses Cuba and passes over the Keys.

Even with reef mitigation I expect catastrophic damage in the Keys.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Not sure I would Evac yet in FL, outside the keys anyway. I agree with Hkry, a correction NE will occur on the Euro. Too much focus on the Cuba argument, especially when ensemble spread could still put this up the coast similar to what 18z GFS just showed.

Just as it could put one over Cuba.

The overall ensemble spread suggest north of Cuba is more likely, but not a lock by any means. 

[SnoSki14]

Could be a fluke off hour gfs run but it's not impossible for this to still hit the Carolinas or even further north. 

Very strong eastern trough for the time of year looks to linger for quite a bit and may just be enough to tug it further north.

[TPAwx]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Not sure I would Evac yet in FL, outside the keys anyway. I agree with Hkry, a correction NE will occur on the Euro. Too much focus on the Cuba argument, especially when ensemble spread could still put this up the coast similar to what 18z GFS just showed.

Lots of population clusters all around Florida where there is one bridge out and they will bottleneck if too many wait until late in the game. 

Florida peeps should continue to monitor the NHC track and local officials for evac guidance depending on their specific area.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Could be a fluke off hour gfs run but it's not impossible for this to still hit the Carolinas or even further north. 

Very strong eastern trough for the time of year looks to linger for quite a bit and may just be enough to tug it further north.

why a fluke ? The exact track after 72 hours is still unknown - remember  where the models started out several days ago - many times you end up with an earlier solution. verifying

[CheeselandSkies]

Waves really crashing across the beach on that east-facing cam on Saint Barthélemy.

[MattPetrulli]

Question for people familiar with FL: Those lakes/large ponds in neighborhoods. Are they storm surge vulnerable/ rainfall flooding vulnerable? 

[OceanStWx]

From last evening anyway, the clusters of ensembles seem to be separating into two camps. Slower and/or south and they were more likely to slip south of FL and try and enter the GoM (mind you this analysis cuts off at day 6). The faster/northern ensemble members tended to recurve more and prior to reaching FL.

[NEG NAO]

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why a fluke ? The exact track after 72 hours is still unknown - remember  where the models started out several days ago - many times you end up with an earlier solution. verifying

At this point it's an outlier like the Euro with its far west track. Best to go with consensus right now and see what models do tonight. Should have a lot more data ingested for the 0z runs.

[Ser Pounce]

4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Question for people familiar with FL: Those lakes/large ponds in neighborhoods. Are they storm surge vulnerable/ rainfall flooding vulnerable? 

Typically those are stormwater retention ponds. They're around for runoff purposes, so the bigger issue would be them being overwhelmed and possible flooding/ponding of surrounding areas.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At this point it's an outlier like the Euro with its far west track. Best to go with consensus right now and see what models do tonight. Should have a lot more data ingested for the 0z runs.

and the data ingested will change in future runs - which will change the track of the storm past day 3 - this is going to be a long drawn out affair for many days.... anyone from the central gulf coast to Maine is in play for a landfall - some location may be the second landfall .........

[bobbutts]

7 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Question for people familiar with FL: Those lakes/large ponds in neighborhoods. Are they storm surge vulnerable/ rainfall flooding vulnerable? 

FWIW I lived near a canal in Port Charlotte FL.  Flooded with freshwater several times while I lived there.  For TS Gabrielle I had catfish swimming around in my yard.

[RU848789]

My gut, simply based on decades of watching major hurricanes that seem to go NE of the 5-day forecast more often than not is that Irma tends to go more towards the east coast of Florida than the west coast of Florida, i.e., NE of the NHC track (like Matthew). Obviously, though, one can't go on a gut instinct, especially as my memory could easily be wrong.  Hence my question: do we have historical data on actual track for major hurricanes over maybe the last 25-30 years (the "modern era" for modeling) vs. the NHC 5-day track, especially for the "big ones" that either made landfall in the US or came really close and especially when those storms were within 5 days of landfall (i.e., not interested in accuracy 1000 miles from land, where it matters far less).  I know @donsutherland1 always seems to pull the most amazing data out of his - uhhh - hat.  

As an aside, given the uncertainty around which part of Florida might get hit, where the hell do you evacuate to if you live in South or even Central Florida, other than maybe Georgia? Or California...if you can avoid the wildfires, lol. 

[NYC10023]

9 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Question for people familiar with FL: Those lakes/large ponds in neighborhoods. Are they storm surge vulnerable/ rainfall flooding vulnerable? 

Growing up in Cape Coral, whenever one of these storms would pass by us (of course, this was back in the 80's when nothing ever hit that area directly) our canal would overflow into our backyard. Dock would be under water and quite a bit of flooding. Again, these were only during depressions or TS, nothing like this.