LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 31 minutes ago, wxmx said: Agree. Look at what happened to Gilbert, Dean or Janet after crossing the flat Yucatan peninsula. Yucatan is part of the continent though, Cuba is a thin island. Sure it has tall mountains in some areas but you have to hit it just "right" (or "wrong") to get that effect- it's like threading a needle. Sure it could happen and weaken the storm considerably, but I wouldn't count on it taking that track unless I was within 3 days of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Still sticking with a Matthew type track. Up the east coast and into the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Looks like a lot of EPS members are well East As someone said a few posts back. That developing tropical off Mexico in the W Gulf wreaked havoc on that run by messing with the setup somewhat to the east. Too many features here which is making this forecast unusually hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, Hazey said: Anyone have a link to a frontline weather station that will be the first to feel the fury of Irma? and a radar station? Thanks Here's a link to the Pureto Rico Traffic Cams. There's a active cam at the moment on the NE side of the island, and you can see clouds from an outer bank moving in. Many more in the San Juan area. http://its.dtop.gov.pr/(X(1)S(gs1c44hygyqrjopsccxagpse))/en/Default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I would agree with evacuations now while there is time to do it in an orderly fashion. Some of the deaths in other evacuations is due to being done late and people rushing/panicking. What's the worst that can happen? You're inconvenienced for a bit. Small price to pay considering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Perhaps someone could start an obs thread with all those links to the various weather stations and radar sites. I think it's getting close enough in time to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Guess what? We got Irma on radar from some Caribbean Islands http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_Bar&Composite=Sabre&PlanetOfTheApes=1503012134 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The spread in the EPS members at hour 120 is pretty big. The mean isn't very cohesive, but verbatim I guess I'd put LF at Miami close to hour 132. The EPS and GEFS suggest D5 forecast confidence is below average right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: Perhaps someone could start an obs thread with all those links to the various weather stations and radar sites. I think it's getting close enough in time to do so. Didn't catch it but anyone have any St. Marteen cams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: The spread in the EPS members at hour 120 is pretty big. The mean isn't very cohesive, but verbatim I guess I'd put LF at Miami close to hour 132. The EPS and GEFS suggest D5 forecast confidence is below average right now. 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Very interesting. 00z vs 12z EPS at 120. Rolled 00z forward 12 hours to account for time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Here is current 12Z versus 18Z. 18Z has shifted West again, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 18z tracks for Sept 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, bdgwx said: The spread in the EPS members at hour 120 is pretty big. The mean isn't very cohesive, but verbatim I guess I'd put LF at Miami close to hour 132. The EPS and GEFS suggest D5 forecast confidence is below average right now. It's an abnormally large spread and the spread is pretty even, indicating how sensitive the track will be to small changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, ncskywarn said: Here is current 12Z versus 18Z. 18Z has shifted West again, The shift west looks minimal. The northern turn is generally in the same spot per 12 and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 NHC's track is definitely on the western envelope of most of those hurricane models and the Euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, csnavywx said: It's an abnormally large spread and the spread is pretty even, indicating how sensitive the track will be to small changes. Very hard to detect any differences in the EPS 500 mb mean and OP through 120. The trough and ridge are nearly identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC's track is definitely on the western envelope of most of those hurricane models and the Euro ensembles Perhaps a slight shift east in the 5pm cone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Wow, wouldn't want to be in Murphy NC if the 18z holds true. All points converge there. Flooding across the NC mts will be brutal if Irma slows down. Any thoughts on how quickly this moves north? 4-6", ok. 10-15" = big problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Here is a link to Anguilla web cams. Doubt they last long as power will go out pretty quickly based on the track. http://www.anguilla-beaches.com/anguilla-beaches-webcam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very hard to detect any differences in the EPS 500 mb mean and OP through 120. The trough and ridge are nearly identical. The lack of crossing tracks suggest differences have a lot to do with the initial position and short term motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very hard to detect any differences in the EPS 500 mb mean and OP through 120. The trough and ridge are nearly identical. How much latitude Irma gains over the next 24-48 hours is going to be crucial. Even 10-20 miles may have a big difference later down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/905143076213096448 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I really think the last couple frames of Irma is the best looking hurricane I've ever seen in my lifetime (I was born in the early 90's). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 A few outer bands getting into Guadeloupe, Dominica. Also note. Later tonight, the hurricane will be closer to TJUA radar (United States). Check NWS radar page for Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 18z tracks for Sept 5thVery few touch Cuba. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Last few frames of MW imagery show the NW turn pushing past 17 degrees lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12z EPS members..close to 1/3 actually miss land wide right. Mean matches up well with GEFS mean...FWIW. Also, Op is a western outlier among members. Sorry if the link doesn't show below, might have to purchase sites model page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 May not be worth it to get too caught up in these details at this point...but on the 12z Euro ensemble map above, the mean crosses 60W at about 17.4N. However, based on extrapolation from a loop of the satellite images over the past few hours, it looks like Irma will cross 60W at about 17.2N. In other words, Irma already appears to be slightly south of the 12z Euro ensemble mean track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Last few frames of MW imagery show the NW turn pushing past 17 degrees lat.Bad news for the Op Euro trackSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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