Major Hurricane Irma

[DCAlexandria]

Of course and Cuba's such a thin island that a 20 mile difference will make all the difference.

This. People thinking a Cuba landfall is def going to happen are nuts.


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[bdgwx]

7 minutes ago, Suncat said:

Something not being discussed here is the influence the development of a low near Missouri will have on steering Irma north then northwest.  The timing of the northward turn will depend on the timing of the development and strengthening of this low. NWS Raleigh is leaning toward a faster turn to the north with the hurricane tracking along the eastern coast of Florida and then a turn to the northwest between Georgia and South Carolina.  At this point, some of the models may not taking this low into consideration.

Correct. This is what's making the upper level jet streak north of Irma bend northwest. It's this anticyclonic shaping of the jet streak that's acting like a giant vacuum cleaner sucking Irma north and westward. It also makes for a great outflow channel that might help Irma stay strong assuming the wind shear doesn't encroach too for into the core.

[SnoSki14]

Instead of bickering about 5 day model tracks, which will continue to change every run, the big story right now is Irmas track over the northern Leeward Islands, I wonder how they will fare about this.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

This. People thinking a Cuba landfall is def going to happen are nuts.


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Taking into consideration model errors, one can neither expect Cuban landfall with certainty nor rule it out.

[McQuackleton]

Someone posted this cam earlier. But you can see the clouds coming in. http://www.soggydollar.com/webcam

[Hazey]

Anyone have a link to a frontline weather station that will be the first to feel the fury of Irma? and a radar station?

Thanks

[ncskywarn]

Beautiful GOES 16 loop storm centered 30 second imagery. 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100

[zippity]

Mandatory evacuations issued for the Florida Keys:

http://wfla.com/2017/09/05/florida-keys-to-issue-mandatory-evacuations-ahead-of-irma/

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Anyone have a link to a frontline weather station that will be the first to feel the fury of Irma? and a radar station?

Thanks

One link that was posted earlier today: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=TAPA&num=48&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Anyone have a link to a frontline weather station that will be the first to feel the fury of Irma? and a radar station?

Thanks

http://stormcarib.com/

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

[SnowGoose69]

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

[Crazy4Wx]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

Well, won't the surge still be devastating for the keys regardless of the eye coming on shore in northern Cuba?

 

[Ginx snewx]

Barbuda cman buoy looks like eye will go right over it

https://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/BARA9.html

[thess]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

It's a visitor evac that starts tomorrow.

I assume they are staging it (visitors, then residents) to ease the bottlenecks on those tiny little roads. 

(Unless there have been significant upgrades in the highways there--haven't been in at least ten years.)

Plus, Keys residents can be remarkably stubborn about evacs. Source: family members in Marathon and Key West who rode out Wilma. 

[gravitylover]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

Because there is one single lane road to get everyone out.

[NJwx85]

It's a little hard to tell but it looks like a lot of EPS members keep Irma safely North of Cuba.

[Chinook]

I don't want to overplay this, but Hurricane Irma could have some impact on San Juan, Puerto Rico. The eyewall is unlikely to be right on Puerto Rico, so that's good. The metro area according to Wikipedia is:

 • Urban 2,148,346

 • Metro 2,350,126

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Crazy4Wx said:

Well, won't the surge still be devastating for the keys regardless of the eye coming on shore in northern Cuba?

 

I'm not sure.  Georges I thought was a 2 when it passed west of Key West and the surge wasn't awful.  I think you need to have a high end 2 or low 3 at least 

[bobbutts]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

I don't have inside knowledge but it has to take a long time to get everyone off since there's only one road connecting the mainland.

Last thing you want is to be stuck on it when the storm strikes.

[Jtm12180]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

Simply put, time. You will potentially have the southern third of Florida evacuating in the next 3-4 days 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

Part of the problem is that the only way out is a narrow road that's only one lane in most spots. Also in many places the roadway is at sea level. They probably also are trying to do a systematic evacuation so that they can gradually get people out rather than all at once.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm not sure.  Georges I thought was a 2 when it passed west of Key West and the surge wasn't awful.  I think you need to have a high end 2 or low 3 at least 

The surge even without a direct hit is going to be tremendous with all that water flowing west on the NE Side or IRMA

[Sportybx]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

Then again what if it don't .  Then you lose a day while everyone from south Florida starts moving on out . Better to be safe then sorry . Might pay off in the end . 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

I don't have inside knowledge but it has to take a long time to get everyone off since there's only one road connecting the mainland.

Last thing you want is to be stuck on it when the storm strikes.

Especially since most of the road is right on the ocean.

[Papa Joe]

Just now, Crazy4Wx said:

Well, won't the surge still be devastating for the keys regardless of the eye coming on shore in northern Cuba?

 

Surge for the Keys is somewhat self-limiting as the surge will hit the reef first. In the 1935 storm, they had 40-50' waves at the reef, and what did make it to land was enhanced because a lot of the cuts and creeks were plugged up by railroad. That said, a 20' storm surge will wipe most anything off the keys. 

 

Even Donna only had about a 6' surge when it passed over Marathon (per the water marks in house I was living in). 

 

1 minute ago, thess said:

It's a visitor evac that starts tomorrow.

I assume they are staging it (visitors, then residents) to ease the bottlenecks on those tiny little roads. 

(Unless there have been significant upgrades in the highways there--haven't been in at least ten years.)

Plus, Keys residents can be remarkably stubborn about evacs. Source: family members in Marathon and Key West who rode out Wilma. 

I lived in Marathon in the late 1960s. People will stay. (but per the MCSO, the evacuation is for everyone and starts tomorrow morning at 7.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

The surge even without a direct hit is going to be tremendous with all that water flowing east on the NE Side or IRMA

I guess the thing is Georges was destroyed by Hispaniola of east Cuba too so the remnant surge was probably mostly gone.  I would think as you say above this one might have a greater leftover rise in water from when it was a Cat 4 or 5 just a day earlier 

[gravitylover]

And then after you come off A1A Rt 1 going through the Homestead area is a 20+ mile long series of traffic lights and is a terminal clustrf*ck without people panicking. There's nothing easy about getting people out of that area.

 

[jburns]

All tolls suspended on Florida highways starting at 5:00 pm.

[RU4Real]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

I think this decision may be largely because the Cuba / No Cuba scenario is somewhat academic for the Keys. As the Gulf Stream pumps through the Florida Strait, it will be met with contrary, long-fetch winds for a couple of days prior to the arrival of the storm. The seas around that area are going to be massive, and steep. There's a very good chance of significant impact from that, alone.

[NJwx85]

Looks like a lot of EPS members are well East