ncforecaster89 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Subtropics said: DT was saying this yesterday. Fully expects a correction north and east once the storm starts moving WNW Of course, with all things being equal, I'd always place a greater probability on a more N track as an intense hurricane is looking for any weakness to escape the first chance it gets. Edit: But, all things aren't always equal. Tropical meteorology is a complex and inexact science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Anyone declaring an "all clear" for any area aside from the Yucatan for this storm that far out is not a very credible source of information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormFollowerUSA Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Flordia Governor Rick Scott as declared a state of emergency. http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Hurricane-Irma-Watches-Caribbean-South-Florida-442673363.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I think the TUTT to the NW is still a key player in the near term. I think its helping the Atlantic ridge to strengthen while at the same time keeping the ridge orientation on a more east west axis by giving the ridge some space to build into. As it weakens and lifts/dissipates the Atlantic ridge will begin to expand north into that space allowing the storm to gain some latitude. However if you look at the water vapor loop there are a couple of players that have popped up that may be accounting for the models trending even farther west. There is a small mid level ridge that has formed just east of Fl that the TUTT is enhancing. There is also some upper level cyclonic flow beginning to develop in the central Caribbean. That weak ULL may be enough to tug Irma a little more west so it ducks under that ridge east of Fl. Neither of those features were shown in the models 36 hours ago or so that I saw. Just my 2 cents I've been wrong before http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, friedmators said: Can someone post the Euro Ensemble map? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I don't understand the idea that we have to see an eastward correction simply when WNW motion begins. Seems like simpleton thinking. There's a difference between anticipated WNW motion and WNW motion that happens prematurely and then gets more and more off course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherboy80 said: How has the UKMET verified with this storm? Both it and their ensembles were way south of the rest! The UKMET in the past had a left of track or south bias with hurricanes moving WNW in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: When you can not even see your state on the Euro Ensemble map you might want to hold off giving the all-clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I don't understand the idea that we have to see an eastward correction simply when WNW motion begins. Seems like simpleton thinking. There's a difference between anticipated WNW motion and WNW motion that happens prematurely and then gets more and more off course. Yeah, if the WNW motion starts early then I would expect an adjustment but the models are predicting a WNW movement in a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I don't understand the idea that we have to see an eastward correction simply when WNW motion begins. Seems like simpleton thinking. There's a difference between anticipated WNW motion and WNW motion that happens prematurely and then gets more and more off course. Because a number of models continue the WSW motion for too long. When they initialize further north next run with a due west trajectory, they're more likely trek further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Because a number of models continue the WSW motion for too long. When they initialize further north next run with a due west trajectory, they're more likely trek further north. In the case of those models, UKMET for example, there would be a correction. The GFS and Euro I believe stop the WSW motion this evening so any adjustment would/should be very minimal with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 And on cue, GFS is further north so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 yep, gfs already north thru 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS touch north, and trough is noticeably stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 46 minutes ago, Dunkman said: There wouldn't be much left of Irma if it followed the UK track. Just saying. That depiction of a powerful cyclone at hour 168 after that track is complete fiction. Its shredded remains would likely continue on into the gulf because it would be too shallow to be pulled north. I think this is a great point. If it dives too far south and interacts too much with Cuba the weakening could cause the upper level steering flow to interact less. That could easily take Irma right into the central GOM like what the 12Z FIM shows. I think we're moving into a period where D5 forecasts have less confidence now than in days prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wow said: Because a number of models continue the WSW motion for too long. When they initialize further north next run with a due west trajectory, they're more likely trek further north. Not quite what I'm saying. I'm saying IF the upcoming turn to the WNW happens on schedule, why would it automatically lead to an eastward adjustment on models at that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Not quite what I'm saying. I'm saying IF the upcoming turn to the WNW happens on schedule, why would it automatically lead to an eastward adjustment on models at that point? Ah, not quite sure then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Definitely further north at hr 57. Trough over GL digging more as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 938 at 72. Let's see how far GFS goes on pressure this run. Edit: 14mb in 6 hours time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Position is close to its 18z position at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Irma looks a tick faster this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Also a bit faster this run, than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS is a tick north of 12z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Position is close to its 18z position at 78 Just now, Snow88 said: GFS is a tick north of 18z so far You mean 12z, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 First pass through the northern eyewall Kermit found 130kt FL winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: You mean 12z, right? Yes 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Northeast trough looks to be lifting a tad faster this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 944mb on the drop with 10kt at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Though 108...the NE low is lifting out a little quicker on past couple of GFS runs and the Atlantic ridge is hair weaker....thus further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 904mb at 114 .. staying N of Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.