40/70 Benchmark Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Probably going to hit Charleston-N Myrtle beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Back over the water quickly and headed North. That's a very ominous position the globals have been trending toward between hr 120 and hr 144 for Carolinas on north based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Back over the water quickly and headed North. So does it actually make landfall? (Center of eye onshore) or does it just graze the east coast of FL with the western edge of the eye wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Second LF near Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 First real landfall near GA/SC coastal border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Recon just found 139 mph flight level wind and 129 mph surface wind in the northeast quadrant. It appears the outer eyewall is taking over and strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Second LF near Savannah. Where was the first? I thought this was first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 LF actually occurs near the GA/SC border as ridge to the North rebuilds, and with the flow around the high it has no chance to kick East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Outer eyewall has taken over on the NE side. ~113-114 on the SFMR. Right in line with the ADT estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Eyewall directly over Miami/Ft Lauderdale. Yikes. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/787-w-261-n/base-reflectivity/20170910-1800z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Where was the first? I thought this was first? Well I was speaking as if it actually does make LF in SE FL because it's extremely close and it could have in between panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 MEH, CMCs backdoor phase was my favorite 12z run. This is going to end up being another 60hr downpour for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 No sign of the big GFS Lakes trough on the Euro after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Amped said: MEH, CMCs backdoor phase was my favorite 12z run. This is going to end up being another 60hr downpour for the Carolinas. This isn't going to end up running up the coast like Floyd unless the timing changes dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 My old stomping grounds of Paris Island, SC would be leveled. May have to findd a new place to make marines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 HWRF has Irma going right across Cuba. It's been on the southern end of model guidance for a while so I'm definitely keeping an eye on how it evolves. That would be bad news for Cuba, but definitely good news for the US. It also seems to be pretty far west before it makes any turn, but the model only goes to 126hr so maybe it would soon thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: LF actually occurs near the GA/SC border as ridge to the North rebuilds, and with the flow around the high it has no chance to kick East. Yes euro would be a slow mover/staller once inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: This isn't going to end up running up the coast like Floyd unless the timing changes dramatically. GFS and CMC show TS force winds along the entire east coast. It's not a matter of timing, it's a matter of whether or not there's a troff in the lakes, or OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: No sign of the big GFS Lakes trough on the Euro after landfall. Yup none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Maybe the only thing good you can say about this run is that it's past 120 hrs and has time to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The 12Z Euro at D7 shows Irma off the east coast of Florida and moving north. If it misses the turn though it could wind up pretty far in the GOM. Or if the turn occurs later it might wind up on the west side of Florida instead of the east side. As landfall possibilities get closer and closer to the D7 and especially D5 lead times the escape routes OTS will start dwindling if this trend for a later turn north continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Maybe not technical landfall in Florida but might as well call it a hit for all intents and purposes. Western eyewalls can be pretty nasty too... just saw that example around Rockport, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 It's scary that the Euro, a model that historically underestimates intensity, has the pressure at 930 when it gets to the Miami area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Maybe the only thing good you can say about this run that it's past 120 hrs and has time to change. It certainly has time to change especially considering even a slight adjustment in that track could make a huge difference with things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Maybe not technical landfall in Florida but might as well call it a hit for all intents and purposes. Western eyewalls can be pretty nasty too... just saw that example around Rockport, TX. You're in all likelihood dealing with at least a high end cat 4 with a huge wind field. TS winds extend hundreds of miles from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Maybe the only thing good you can say about this run is that it's past 120 hrs and has time to change. I know we are all trying to be PC in our posts. But it's pretty much common sense it's gonna change being that far out. What needs to be noticed is trends and what features are on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 There is trof coming into great lakes day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Scary how close the GFS and Euro are with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: There is trof coming into great lakes day 9. You mean that thing in Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Track looks good through Day 5, things change synoptically after that. If the NE trough lingers longer then I could see Irma ending up further northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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