LandofLincoln Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Pressure obviously isn't realistic overall, but that run seems a lot more realistic than the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Verbatim, it would probably cause a more northward (but still slightly nw'ward) movement vs. the last 4 runs of the GFS....ie would head into PA/NY states vs. buried into WV/TN/KY.... 2 minutes ago, winterymix said: The trend after LF would be a drop to less than Cat 1 in less than 24 hours. The rains will be a huge issue along with uprooted trees. Also, numerous category 1 tornadoes in the front right quarter. This will be a fast mover so no 30"+ rains as with Harvey. So theoretically she could still be a high end TS up in PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Turns into one hell of a great lakes storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Question, due to this being a large spread out cane, would the downsloping off the Cuba mts aid in the dryslotting on the SE quadrant as it starts its turn toward SoFL weakening it a bit, versus a more compact cane that would have minimal impacts? Storms don't have to be right over Cuba to feel the impacts of the mountains. Dry air entrainment is possible even likely to some degree, but the water is warm and the general airmass will be favorable so disruptions will likely be somewhat minimal if the core stays 30, 40 or 50 miles north of land in Cuba. There will likely be some impact though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Quite the H5 change in the Pacific between hr 156 at 12z, and 162 at 6z. ULL in SOCAL is south while the GOAK trough is sharper. This allowed for that trough to dig in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Meanwhile, Irma continues to look better on IR/VIS stat. loops....I continue to believe CAT 4 attainment will be reached within 6-8 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said: maybe premature. Immature is a bit much... The word is irresponsible. Now back on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 GGEM nails Florida like the GFS then straight up the East coast and another LF near the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Voyager said: So theoretically she could still be a high end TS up in PA? No, you may have TS force wind gusts but it won't be a high end tropical storm in PA on the GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Here comes the recon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: GGEM nails Florida like the GFS then straight up the East coast and another LF near the Chesapeake. Only about 80mb weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Voyager said: So theoretically she could still be a high end TS up in PA? I'm seeing 30 mph gusts near the coast so if still warm core, a depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 All ADT T#'s are now above 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z Canadian has a further east track from south florida all the way along and up the east coast This has it phasing with the first SW the GFS has it phasing with a second SW. Tricky forecast and shows anything can still happen. Hopefully the 0z runs provide some clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: No, you may have TS force wind gusts but it won't be a high end tropical storm in PA on the GFS track. Just now, winterymix said: I'm seeing 30 mph gusts near the coast so if still warm core, a depression. Thanks to both. I saw the post about 24 hours dropping to Cat 1 strength and wondered because it looked like in 24 from 2nd landfall, she'd be in western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: Meanwhile, Irma continues to look better on IR/VIS stat. loops....I continue to believe CAT 4 attainment will be reached within 6-8 hrs.. T6.0 (6.2 raw) already supports a low-end Cat. 4, as does Satcon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Recon already reported 61kts well West of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, csnavywx said: T6.0 (6.2 raw) already supports a low-end Cat. 4, as does Satcon. Estimates up to 117kts, ~135mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 How surge vulnerable is the east coast of FL? I know west coast is extremely surge vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Turns into one hell of a great lakes storm Yeah, a pretty good one by September standards. The phasing slows the weakening process and the system actually deepens again. Should point out the obvious that we shouldn't be putting a lot of stock in individual op runs yet, whether it's pre or post landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Whoa, peak winds at 102kts and pressure only at 988mb, so still well West of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Recon already reported 61kts well West of the eye. I noticed that too, I was curious how wide this storm was for hurricane and TS force winds. Seems to be broadening at least based on this early recon. We'll see how the flight pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: How surge vulnerable is the east coast of FL? I know west coast is extremely surge vulnerable. Here is a interactive surge map http://frances-a.cs.fiu.edu//gic/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Whoa, peak winds at 102kts and pressure only at 988mb, so still well West of the eye. 78kts SFMR peak so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I've been tracking the public advisories the last few days Friday 5am--Hurricane-force winds extended 15 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extended 90 miles.Saturday 5am--Hurricane-force winds extended 25 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extended 80 miles.Monday 5am--Hurricane-force winds extended 30 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extended 140 miles. Repeated ERCs have been continuously expanding the windfield -- pretty much as forecast so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 43 minutes ago, tim123 said: One thing is consistant is gfs want to really deepen it once it turns north I think that may be due to the interaction with the trough enhancing outflow channels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 944.6 mb pressure extrapolated. So no change since last recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 fwiw, 12z Uncle Ukie looks like it runs over a significant chunk of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yep. I think the 11am had the hurricane force winds expand by a few miles. The NHC had been talking about forecasts for the wind field to expand and it has been fascinating to watch take place. This is also reflected in wind history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GEFS following suit and trending north with the mean low placement. Right over Miami at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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