Major Hurricane Irma

[bdgwx]

It was already mentioned that the 12Z UKMET was south of the ECMWF/GFS blend. Here is a chart that shows just how far south it is. At D7 it is east of Florida after making the sharp right turn.

[tstate21]

I forgot who mentioned it yesterday, but you can definitely still see the effects of the ridge pushing down on the northern side of the cyclone.  It's giving Irma a more elongated appearance and is continuing it on a W or slightly south of due west track. 

[weatherboy80]

How has the UKMET verified with this storm? Both it and their ensembles were way south of the rest!

[SN_Lover]

18z NAM is faster with the trough. well see what the GFS does. *prepares for anti-NAMer's* 

[bdgwx]

4 minutes ago, weatherboy80 said:

How has the UKMET verified with this storm? Both it and their ensembles were way south of the rest!

It's second best to the Euro so far with Irma.

[DownpourDave]

Irma now a Category 4 Hurricane:

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 042036
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...IRMA STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 54.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

[andyhb]

First time with two consecutive Cat 4 canes in the Atlantic since 2005 (Dennis and Emily).

[MattPetrulli]

GFS has South Florida dealing with TS conditions by early Saturday, doesn't stop until about early Monday.

[Dunkman]

There wouldn't be much left of Irma if it followed the UK track. Just saying. That depiction of a powerful cyclone at hour 168 after that track is complete fiction. Its shredded remains would likely continue on into the gulf because it would be too shallow to be pulled north.

[Radtechwxman]

Irma looks like she might be taking off again. Convection really exploding around eye. She is entering some very warm waters

[Windspeed]

Steady improvement.

[Wow]

Thinking more like Hazel just shift it further north.  It's got the hard right turn and bend back west.

[nycwinter]

10 minutes ago, andyhb said:

First time with two consecutive Cat 4 canes in the Atlantic since 2005 (Dennis and Emily).

if irma hits the us as a cat 4 it would be the first time in 102 years that 2 cat 4 have hit the us in the same year...

[Casualbrain]

23 minutes ago, weatherboy80 said:

How has the UKMET verified with this storm? Both it and their ensembles were way south of the rest!

Live UKMET updates on IRMA here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=11L&stormName=IRMA

 

[SN_Lover]

1 minute ago, Casualbrain said:

Live UKMET updates on IRMA here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=11L&stormName=IRMA

 

Maybe i'm seeing things, but looking at this site, Irma seems to be North of UKMET's path currently.

[jm1220]

Still way too far out to make a call obviously but a hit just north of Tampa would devastate the whole Tampa Bay Area with surge. That area is very prone to it and heavily populated. It was almost Charley but luckily for them it ticked east and hit closer to Fort Myers. 

[Casualbrain]

5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Maybe i'm seeing things, but looking at this site, Irma seems to be North of UKMET's path currently.

Dunno - looks like the 12z UKMET (Blue line track below) prediction to me - it (UKMET Tropical) is updated only twice daily.
 

[bobbutts]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still way too far out to make a call obviously but a hit just north of Tampa would devastate the whole Tampa Bay Area with surge. That area is very prone to it and heavily populated. It was almost Charley but luckily for them it ticked east and hit closer to Fort Myers. 

Charley had a tiny surge for a cat 4 due to small size and very late intensification, so the surge threat wasn't worst case for Tampa.  Should Irma take a track up the W. coast of FL it would likely have far more powerful for surge than Charley could have.  Much larger storm and already very intense.

[Joe4alb]

System is moving w now so that forecast wouldn't verify just based on that. Would need to still be moving with some southerly component.

2 minutes ago, Casualbrain said:

Dunno - looks like the 12z UKMET (Blue line track below) prediction to me - it (UKMET Tropical) is updated only twice daily.
 

 

[Hoosier]

Averaging the Euro/UKMET tracks would have the center passing over Cuba, at least the northern part.

[SN_Lover]

2 minutes ago, Casualbrain said:

Dunno - looks like the 12z UKMET (Blue line track below) prediction to me - it (UKMET Tropical) is updated only twice daily.
 

I would wager the UKMET, especially, is wrong. The southern movement component of Irma has ceased. Might come back, but for the meantime, it's gone. A possible adjustment north might be reasonable at 0z. IMO. 

[ncforecaster89]

15 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

if irma hits the us as a cat 4 it would be the first time in 102 years that 2 cat 4 have hit the us in the same year...

Actually, I tweeted about this a few days ago.  It would be the first time in recorded history going back to 1851.   

[Wow]

If the southern motion has indeed ended for good, possible we could see a continuation of a northern trend in the next couple of runs.  0z especially important with latest data ingested.

[TPAwx]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still way too far out to make a call obviously but a hit just north of Tampa would devastate the whole Tampa Bay Area with surge. That area is very prone to it and heavily populated. It was almost Charley but luckily for them it ticked east and hit closer to Fort Myers. 

Even a cat 1 or 2 on a certain trajectory would be a problem.  Downtown has been developing aggressively and there is a lot of property and people near water's edge.  I'm sheltering in place if the track holds to the east, and will have to evac if it shifts west.  

In general it would be a nightmare given the population of Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties.

[ncforecaster89]

Looking forward to the 00z model runs, given they will be ingested with the critical upper atmospheric data from the G-IV flights as well as the central USA.  The runs should give us a much better idea where Irma may end up in 5-7 days; albeit, no forecast will be 100% at even 48 hours out, much less these lead times.   

[lakeeffectkid383]

Just now, Wow said:

If the southern motion has indeed ended for good, possible we could see a continuation of a northern trend in the next couple of runs.  0z especially important with latest data ingested.

Excited to see the 18z models, but really really excited for the 00z models. Does the data collected get ingested into all models (foreign models as well), or just the American models?

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

I would wager the UKMET, especially, is wrong. The southern movement component of Irma has ceased. Might come back, but for the meantime, it's gone. A possible adjustment north might be reasonable at 0z. IMO. 

Agreed. I just don't see it verifying at all with no similar guidance from the GFS or Euro. 

[ncforecaster89]

1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Excited to see the 18z models, but really really excited for the 00z models. Does the data collected get ingested into all models (foreign models as well), or just the American models?

All of the models.   

[Subtropics]

5 minutes ago, Wow said:

If the southern motion has indeed ended for good, possible we could see a continuation of a northern trend in the next couple of runs.  0z especially important with latest data ingested.

DT was saying this yesterday. Fully expects a correction north and east once the storm starts moving WNW

[friedmators]

Can someone post the Euro Ensemble map?


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